Politics: A new beginning

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
I know everyone there voted for Sadamm, but I didn't know everyone wanted to work. the unemployment rate is way more complicated then you suggest. PM Tyrone.

Ooo, good point. The rising unemployment rate in Iraq is really a sign that people there are less discouraged.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Interesting poll results in the current NH polls.

Most of these polls are tracking polls, so they show three days of data combined. The last poll (Boston Herald) is not a tracking poll, and it shows just data from the last 24 hours. If you look at some of the raw polling data from the different polls, it bears out the the Herald Poll as a current snapshot (though Lieberman looks low in the Herald compared to the other polls' data).

Long and short of it -- bigger boost than usual for Kerry coming out of Iowa, with the hit being taken from BOTH Dean and Clark. Edwards is getting a small bump, and Lieberman seems to be, too.

So, if this trend keeps going (and it will take a couple days for anyone to reverse the trend), going into the weekend it looks like Kerry winning, second place a tight contest between Dean and Clark (with Dean ahead of Clark now but falling faster) and Edwards and Lieberman each moving up.

It will be interesting to see how they try to reverse the trends and just how nasty that battle for second gets (whoever is in it by next Tuesday).

[Not Me]

I'd PM you, but it turns out you are impossible to PM. Your username is too long to fit in the space alloted for recipient name.

Turns out that I was a kid when Chevy was on SNL. My mommy didn't let me stay up that late.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
Ooo, good point. The rising unemployment rate in Iraq is really a sign that people there are less discouraged.

blow me. The guy extrapolated how many people lost their jobs by looking at 20% of THE ENTIRE POPULATION. My god, you're a fucking moderator, don't you care what shit floats up on our shores?

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
Ooo, good point. The rising unemployment rate in Iraq is really a sign that people there are less discouraged.

Finally, I think I get it.

[Not Me]

Anyone else convinced that Nancy Pelosi's plastic surgeon must have been a Republican?

Or maybe the same one that MJ used?

[Say_hello_for_me]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Interesting poll results in the current NH polls.

Most of these polls are tracking polls, so they show three days of data combined. The last poll (Boston Herald) is not a tracking poll, and it shows just data from the last 24 hours. If you look at some of the raw polling data from the different polls, it bears out the the Herald Poll as a current snapshot (though Lieberman looks low in the Herald compared to the other polls' data).

Long and short of it -- bigger boost than usual for Kerry coming out of Iowa, with the hit being taken from BOTH Dean and Clark. Edwards is getting a small bump, and Lieberman seems to be, too.

So, if this trend keeps going (and it will take a couple days for anyone to reverse the trend), going into the weekend it looks like Kerry winning, second place a tight contest between Dean and Clark (with Dean ahead of Clark now but falling faster) and Edwards and Lieberman each moving up.

It will be interesting to see how they try to reverse the trends and just how nasty that battle for second gets (whoever is in it by next Tuesday).

I saw a bit of that too and I think its interesting to see Kerry's bump. But I'd fear who he really is, and how he will be presented to the voters by the Republicans WAY more than I'd fear Clark. I think us Rs have it right (at the WH according to the press) when they say Clark is the only one that really concerns them.

My brother pointed out earlier this week that Dean was only tracking at 50% in Illinois in a vote against Bush. In the current environment in Illinois, that is a huge red flag against Dean. So good riddance to his candidacy, though I still like the guy at a more personal level.

Is Edwards in your (or any other non-Republican on the board's) top 3 list of the current Democratic contenders? I get the feeling that several Democrats here will say aye. If so, please remember how we are viewed as a group of lawyers, and then think if any subgroup is more the target of those views than his. At a national level his occupation and past are downright dangerous to your party.

For top 3 in my leanings, I'd go with Clark, Dean and Lieberman. But politically, Lieberman is a non-starter, and Dean needs a few big bumps to regain the momentum.

So, in the interest of having a competitive and dynamic election, and the risk of a vote I can "live" with, I am officially endorsing Clark for the nomination. Where do I send my check?

Hello

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Long and short of it -- bigger boost than usual for Kerry coming out of Iowa, with the hit being taken from BOTH Dean and Clark. Edwards is getting a small bump, and Lieberman seems to be, too.

Dean better start warming up his stethoscope.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
I saw a bit of that too and I think its interesting to see Kerry's bump. But I'd fear who he really is, and how he will be presented to the voters by the Republicans WAY more than I'd fear Clark.

Kerry plays well in the NE and the left coast.

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
Is Edwards in your (or any other non-Republican on the board's) top 3 list of the current Democratic contenders? I get the feeling that several Democrats here will say aye. If so, please remember how we are viewed as a group of lawyers, and then think if any subgroup is more the target of those views than his. At a national level his occupation and past are downright dangerous to your party.

You are thinking like a man, now, and forgetting that women like Edwards. Edwards will do OK with the swing voters in the South, too.

All-in-all, I think a Kerry-Edwards ticket is more likely to win than a Clark-whomever ticket is, but neither are going to oust an incumbent prez with high job approval numbers.

And if UBL gets caught, it is all over for the Dems. Through 2008, too.

[SlaveNoMore]

Not Me
And if UBL gets caught, it is all over for the Dems. Through 2008, too.

Come on, Bin Laden is already dead. They're just waiting to bring out his head until late September.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Not Me
You are thinking like a man, now, and forgetting that women like Edwards. Edwards will do OK with the swing voters in the South, too.

But Edwards is the new King of the Fake Toxic Torts (think "silicone breast implants cause rabies", but with a "cerebral palsy from birth" spin) and the anti-lawsuit pressure that would come out directly aimed at him in the campaign would be horrendous. By the time the election was over, I doubt he would be able to safely walk down a street.

[Secret_Agent_Man]

Originally posted by bilmore
But Edwards is the new King of the Fake Toxic Torts (think "silicone breast implants cause rabies", but with a "cerebral palsy from birth" spin) and the anti-lawsuit pressure that would come out directly aimed at him in the campaign would be horrendous. By the time the election was over, I doubt he would be able to safely walk down a street.

You're forgetting that women loooove fake toxic torts.

S_A_M

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by Not Me
I'd PM you, but it turns out you are impossible to PM. Your username is too long to fit in the space alloted for recipient name.

Turns out that I was a kid when Chevy was on SNL. My mommy didn't let me stay up that late.

I can be PMd. And I was 2 when Chevy was on SNL.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
blow me. The guy extrapolated how many people lost their jobs by looking at 20% of THE ENTIRE POPULATION. My god, you're a fucking moderator, don't you care what shit floats up on our shores?

That wasn't my point dipshit. My point was that unemployment was WAY up. Jesus, I fucking know how to calculate the employment rate. I have no idea what the actual unemployement rate is in Iraq. It was a fucking estimate that tends to show a large increase in unemployement. I haven't polled the Iraqis who are out of work yet actively seeking work.

You probably don't understand British humor either...

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?
That wasn't my point dipshit. My point was that unemployment was WAY up.

I always liked how Hitler made the trains run on time. Seems a shame we had to disturb that.