Quote:
Originally posted by bilmore
I can't see this affecting the level or longevity of fighting much at all.
Where it will matter will be the embracing, by many Iraqis who maybe weren't sold yet, of the US's role there. After the infamous bugout of GWI, (yes, yes, we'll support you, go get him!, oh, well, we gotta go now . . . ) I suspect that a postwar Iraq with a viable Saddam wandering about was not the safest-feeling place in the world to be openly advocating for democracy. Maybe this will loosen up those who were still afraid (with justification) that we'd just bug out again.
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Like Bilmore, I suspect Saddam's capture makes it much easier for the post-war Iraqi political constellation to emerge.
Unlike Bilmore, I am not expecting that political constellation to be naturally democratic, without an awful lot of pressure and intervention from the US and Britain. So one unintended beneficiary of Saddam's capture will be the religious conservatives (who, of course, were one of the groups he heavily repressed). And those are exactly the sort of political hot potatoes that Bush will need to deal with in the coming months.
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