Politics: Onward from New Hampshire

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Gattigap
What matters is that the terrorist numbnuts successfully disrupted national elections in a western state, and that they likely think that's cool, and will try to do elsewhere if they can. It'll probably be easiest to do in Europe, which is the soft underbelly of the West. (So one might want to postpone that house rental in Tuscany that's coming up next month.)

Yep.

Originally posted by Gattigap
I doubt that Terror Numbnuts Inc. spends much time calculating the precise political effect of their actions because these things could go either way -- or if they do so, that they're probably bad at predicting the result.

I think that they do spend time but aren't necessarily right in their predictions. I do think they hit the nail on the head with Spain.

Originally posted by Gattigap
(For example, after all, OBL apparently thought that 9/11 would send us into Afghanistan, where we'd get bogged down and pull out, which was an enormous miscalculation.)

I don't think that is what OBL thought. I think he thought that 9/11 would galvanize islamic terrorists. I don't think he thought the US would invade Afghanistan. Afterall, 9/11 was planned when Clinton was in the white house and if they were making predictions, it was probably that Gore would be in power when the attack occurred. I don't think anyone thought that Gore would invade Afghanistan.

Originally posted by Gattigap
Instead, it's likely that Terror Numbnuts Inc. will simply think that such actions will stir up trouble and instability, which in a general sense would further their goals.

I think that is one of their goals, but not their only goal and I think they do work through the potential political and economic outcomes of their terrorism. I think if you think they are too unsophisticated in their thinking to do that, you are undersestimating your enemy.