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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
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PA is a strange Commonwealth. And I think the reporting on the races is a bit suspect. McCormick is not neck and neck with Casey. Casey will face a huge barrage of ads in coming weeks (outspent by $40mil supposedly). But it's Casey's race to lose, and TV ads don't mean much. Methinks the media is trying to create the appearance of a nailbiter where Casey is probably going to win by 4 points.
Re Trump v Harris, however, a couple thoughts... Economic issues are paramount. Dobbs is a concern among the crowd a few rungs up Maslow's Hierarchy. The overwhelming majority of the Commonwealth, which is at the base of that pyramid, is not moved by that issue. And as Icky previously noted, there's a sexist crowd out there that just isn't voting for a woman. Particularly a progressive one tacking suddenly toward the middle. The Commonwealth is quite provincial (parochial might fit better) and filled with those voters.
If I had to guess, based on polling to date (adjusting Trump 2-3 points up based on his historic underpolling), and discounting the recent hype around McCormick (the media wants cover a nailbiter in a state just west of the Boston-DC corridor, as it's cheaper and more interesting than, say, Tester's battle in Montana), I'd guess Trump ekes out a win in PA and Casey handily beats McCormick.
ETA: The provincial nature of much of the population is also the reason McCormick cannot win. The main knock on him is he's a carpetbagger. People in the Commonwealth are dim and tribal enough that this is a paramount concern. Also, his position on China and his having run a hedge fund raise the same skepticism among voters as Harris's sudden shift to the middle. He and Harris are both seen as rich, wired bullshitters. Yes, the irony Trump is not seen as such is mind-bending, but it's also immaterial. Whatever allows him to get away with being seen as "regular folk" by the hoi polloi is still very much active and unquestioned. His signs are everywhere.
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