Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
Real Clear Politics averages all polls, so taking the skewed both ways stuff. It’s why it was the only one saying Trump and Hil was a toss up. People here should learn from history.
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Trump has held a lead in PA throughout the year, consistently. And it hasn't changed much following Harris's entry. But it's never been terribly high (1-3 points).
That could indicate accuracy of the polls, or persistent inaccuracy of all of them.
The voters in PA tend not to be at all socially conscious, even in the cities. The Commonwealth has been such an economic laggard for so long and trends older demographically. Casey is seen like Biden. Old school moderate D, the kind who'll fight for the working class. Harris and McCormick are "others" (hedge fund manager, CA progressive). A good analogue for them is Dr. Oz. He was actually very moderate, but he was seen as a rich, ex-lefty foreigner. Fetterman disavowed his progressivism and crushed him by playing to the economically struggling average joe. Bizarrely, Trump somehow occupies that space. "Energy cheaper under Trump, and more fracking!" is a winner in PA.
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