Making a buck cleaning Lester's spittle trays on Sequels' 22-year old supermodel abs

[ThurgreedMarshall]

I never took a math course that covered probability. Or, if I did, I was doing something more fun that day.

I was watching Numbers on Tivo the other day and the little professor guy explained a concept in probability using the following example:

Say there are three doors. Behind two doors there is a goat. Behind one door is a new car. What is the probability that you pick the door that has the car? You have a one-in-three chance.

Okay, so you pick the second door. The third door is opened, revealing a goat. Now you have a one in two chance of finding the car.

Here's where it gets tricky. Will your chances of finding the car increase if you change your choice from door two to door one?

I, and all the other dumbass students in his classroom on his show said that it wouldn't. He said we were all mistaken, of course. If you change your choice, apparently you double (or increase, but I think he said "double") the probability that you will find the car.

It doesn't make sense to me because I think the decision to not change doors is as much a choice as deciding to change doors at this point. And I can't get past the fact that no matter which door you choose, when it comes down to two doors, you would have a 50/50 chance of picking the right door.

Someone explain this to me.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?
The bigger they are, the more they need to be scratched?

Isn't the correct question, "The bigger they are, the harder they need to be scratched?"

TM

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
Isn't the correct question, "The bigger they are, the harder they need to be scratched?"

TM

Or, "The bigger they are, the harder it is for GWNC to teabag them."

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
Someone explain this to me.

TM

Google loves you:

link

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
I never took a math course that covered probability. Or, if I did, I was doing something more fun that day.

I was watching Numbers on Tivo the other day and the little professor guy explained a concept in probability using the following example:

Say there are three doors. Behind two doors there is a goat. Behind one door is a new car. What is the probability that you pick the door that has the car? You have a one-in-three chance.

Okay, so you pick the second door. The third door is opened, revealing a goat. Now you have a one in two chance of finding the car.

Here's where it gets tricky. Will your chances of finding the car increase if you change your choice from door two to door one?

I, and all the other dumbass students in his classroom on his show said that it wouldn't. He said we were all mistaken, of course. If you change your choice, apparently you double (or increase, but I think he said "double") the probability that you will find the car.

It doesn't make sense to me because I think the decision to not change doors is as much a choice as deciding to change doors at this point. And I can't get past the fact that no matter which door you choose, when it comes down to two doors, you would have a 50/50 chance of picking the right door.

Someone explain this to me.

TM

This is why epidemiology and statistics should not be given the reverence and evidentiary value they have been in our society. In most studies conducted, there are a thousand variables neglected. People are addicted to the shit because its only science that lets them think they can predict where they'll be and what they'll be doing in 20 years.

I have actually made certain life decisions specifically because they are contrary to what someone told me people in my situation statistically do. Don't know if they were good or not, but I know one thing - I don't want to remain a person in my situation, so doing the opposite is the best positive guidepost I can think of....

[spookyfish]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I have actually made certain life decisions specifically because they are contrary to what someone told me people in my situation statistically do. Don't know if they were good or not, but I know one thing - I don't want to remain a person in my situation, so doing the opposite is the best positive guidepost I can think of....

Let me guess. Chicken salad, on wheat -- untoasted.

[dtb]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Google loves you:

link

Dude. Your Google-fu is phenomenal!

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
This is why epidemiology and statistics should not be given the reverence and evidentiary value they have been in our society.

Epidemiology was one of my favorite classes ever. It was like taking a mystery class.

And statistics was the only math that I liked.

[spookyfish]

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
Epidemiology was one of my favorite classes ever. It was like taking a mystery class.

And statistics was the only math that I liked.

What are the odds of that happening?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by spookyfish
Let me guess. Chicken salad, on wheat -- untoasted.

I didn't say I did the opposite of what I SHOULD do, I said I did the opposite of what people in my position STATISTICALLY do. You assume the masses' decision is preferred. I'm not so sure. I think its more a comfort thing with them.

[dtb]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
This is why epidemiology and statistics should not be given the reverence and evidentiary value they have been in our society. In most studies conducted, there are a thousand variables neglected. People are addicted to the shit because its only science that lets them think they can predict where they'll be and what they'll be doing in 20 years.

I have actually made certain life decisions specifically because they are contrary to what someone told me people in my situation statistically do. Don't know if they were good or not, but I know one thing - I don't want to remain a person in my situation, so doing the opposite is the best positive guidepost I can think of....

I think George Constanza applied a similar principle to great effect.


ETA: Dang! Beaten to the punch.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
Epidemiology was one of my favorite classes ever. It was like taking a mystery class.

And statistics was the only math that I liked.

I find it fasinctaing because its the only "math" that can be debunked and is pretty much grey in every direction.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I have actually made certain life decisions specifically because they are contrary to what someone told me people in my situation statistically do. Don't know if they were good or not, but I know one thing - I don't want to remain a person in my situation, so doing the opposite is the best positive guidepost I can think of....

Becoming a lawyer wasn't decided this way, was it?

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Becoming a lawyer wasn't decided this way, was it?

It was a longshot.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Google loves you:

link

This still doesn't make sense. If you're wrong Monty is forced to pick the other wrong door, whereas if you're right he can choose between two wrong doors. that's all the wheel says, isn't it?