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12-09-2006, 12:04 AM
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#1786
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,050
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What's the plan?
Anthony Cordesmann:
- Simply calling for a weak and divided Iraqi government to act in the face of all of the forces tearing Iraq apart is almost feckless: It is a "triumph of hope over experience." Efforts to exhort Iraqis into reconciliation are scarcely new; this has been a core political effort of the Bush Administration since before the elections, and one dates back to at least the summer of 2005. The only new twist is to call for the US to use threats and disincentives to pressure the Iraqi government to act decisively. Saying that, the "United States must make it clear to the Iraqi government that the United states could carry out its plans, including planned redeployments, even if the Iraqi government did not implement their planned changes" borders on being irresponsible. It comes far too close to having the US threaten to take it ball and go home if the Iraqi children do not play the game our way..
Such a policy ignores that lack of a clear Sunni leader and power structure, the diverse ambitions of the Kurds, and above all the divisions among the Shi'ites. Maliki is not weak because he personally is weak, he is weak because he is a compromise leader with two powerful parties - Sadr and SCIRI - that are seeking Shi'ite power and pursuing their own ambitions.
More importantly, it ignores the fact that the Iraqi government is weak as much because of US action as Iraq's inherent problems. The US destroyed the secular core of the country by disbanding the Ba'ath. The US created a constitutional process long before Iraq was ready, and created an intensely divisive document with more than 50 key areas of "clarification" including federation, control of oil resources and money, control of security, the role of religion, the nature of the legal system, etc. The US created an electoral system that almost forced Iraqis to vote to be Sunnis, Shi'ites, and Kurds and divided the nation on sectoral and ethnic lines. The US effectively sent a bull in to liberate a china shop, and the Study Group now called upon the US to threaten to remove the bull if the shop doesn't fix the china.
link
__________________
“It was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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12-09-2006, 12:06 AM
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#1787
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
3) EU dissolves by 2013
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That is quite a bold statement. You think that now all these people are used to the Euro they are really going want to go back to their national currencies? That would be a disaster for business. Europeans businesses large and small will never let it happen.
I think it is inevitable for all the countries in Europe that are allowed to will adopt the Euro. Right now London is losing its position as the prime financial center in Europe because the UK is not using the Euro. No multinationals use Norway as their hub anymore, and even Norwegian companies have moved their headquarter out of Norway because it is not in in the EU and adopted the Euro. Swiss banks have started to switch to Euro demoninated accounts, and are holding them off shore so as to not to breach Swiss banking laws. Before the Euro, it might have been possible for the EU to break up, but the Euro cemented that organization.
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12-09-2006, 12:24 AM
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#1788
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Consigliere
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Pelosi Land!
Posts: 9,477
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Spanky
That is quite a bold statement. You think that now all these people are used to the Euro they are really going want to go back to their national currencies? That would be a disaster for business. Europeans businesses large and small will never let it happen.
I think it is inevitable for all the countries in Europe that are allowed to will adopt the Euro. Right now London is losing its position as the prime financial center in Europe because the UK is not using the Euro. No multinationals use Norway as their hub anymore, and even Norwegian companies have moved their headquarter out of Norway because it is not in in the EU and adopted the Euro. Swiss banks have started to switch to Euro demoninated accounts, and are holding them off shore so as to not to breach Swiss banking laws. Before the Euro, it might have been possible for the EU to break up, but the Euro cemented that organization.
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The failure of the EU constituent countries to even come close to voting in favor of a Constitution was its death knell. It's only going to get worse from here.
You are correct in that it will be virtually impossible to unwind the Euro as the primary currency - but there really is no need to.
And you pointed out another death knell for the EU in your earlier post - that it was primarily composed of white, Christian nations. Western Europe, especially the low countries and France, are becoming Muslim at a lightning rate. This year 1/3 of all newborns in France were Muslim. They are outbreeding all others, and its only a matter of time before they become substantial minorities, then majorities, in those countries.
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12-09-2006, 12:26 AM
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#1789
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Oops.
My ethnic cleansing theory of Tibet just took a big hit. My sister brought over some Tibetans (from Tibet) to tour the US to raise money for their orphange. I was just talking to one of them and she was telling me that Tibetans are allowed to have two children and the Chinese (even in Tibet) can only have one. In order to be allowed two children both parents have to be Tibetan.
She has two children.
In addition, in the country side, where there are only Tibetans, they seem to have as many children as they want. In addition the government is much more strict on the Han Chinese about the policy.
Not really the policy of a government that is trying to cleanse Tibet of Tibetans.
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12-09-2006, 12:46 AM
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#1790
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
The failure of the EU constituent countries to even come close to voting in favor of a Constitution was its death knell. It's only going to get worse from here.
You are correct in that it will be virtually impossible to unwind the Euro as the primary currency - but there really is no need to.
And you pointed out another death knell for the EU in your earlier post - that it was primarily composed of white, Christian nations. Western Europe, especially the low countries and France, are becoming Muslim at a lightning rate. This year 1/3 of all newborns in France were Muslim. They are outbreeding all others, and its only a matter of time before they become substantial minorities, then majorities, in those countries.
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I believe the Europeans have a much lower tolerance for non caucasians than the US or other American countrys have. The Europeans love to brag how they are"tolerant"of non caucasians but the second they start appearing in large numbers in thier countries there is a huge back lash. Muslims have only reached like four percent of the population in France and LePen became a serious contender for the presidency. Austria came pretty close to an openly bigoted guy running their country. The netherlands almost elected their version of David Duke.
I believe once the Muslims start reaching ten percent of the population in those countrys the deportations will start. At least that is my prediction.
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12-09-2006, 02:41 AM
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#1791
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Consigliere
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Pelosi Land!
Posts: 9,477
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Spanky
I believe once the Muslims start reaching ten percent of the population in those countrys the deportations will start. At least that is my prediction.
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Haven't you been reading my links? There has been an intifada going on in the Paris suburbs for over a year. Thousands of police have been seriously injured.
The AP/AFP/Reuters loves to refer to them as "youths" - but the cold, hard reality is that they are unintegrated young violent Muslims.
From 11/28
Quote:
PARIS (Reuters) - Stoned, beaten and insulted, their vehicles torched by crowds of hostile youths[Slave - see what I mean?], French police say they face an urban guerrilla war when they enter the run-down neighborhoods that ring the major cities.
“Our role is to guarantee the safety of people and property but the great difficulty today is that police are having problems ensuring their own safety,” said Jerome Hanarte of the Alliance-Police Nationale union.
Bedside television interviews with officers hospitalized after beatings in “les banlieues,” or suburbs, support statistics showing a 6.7 percent jump in violent crime in the 12 months to August. Fourteen officers are hurt every day in the line of duty, unions estimate, and law and order is sure to feature prominently in next year’s presidential election.
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According to Daniel Pipes, there are
Quote:
"751 "Zones Urbaines Sensibles", or Sensitive Urban Zones, with the even more antiseptic acronym ZUS. They are convienently listed on one long webpage, complete with street demarcations and map delineations.
What are they? Those places in France that the French state does not control. They range from two zones in the medieval town of Carcassone to twelve in the heavily Muslim town of Marseilles, with hardly a town in France lacking in its ZUS. The ZUS came into existence in late 1996 and according to a 2004 estimate, nearly 5 million people live in them."
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12-09-2006, 03:24 AM
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#1792
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Haven't you been reading my links? There has been an intifada going on in the Paris suburbs for over a year. Thousands of police have been seriously injured.
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I think that just reconfirms what I am saying. The muslims are not being accepted into French society. They are being segregated into Ghettos when they are still a small percent of the population. They are not given jobs. The muslims are pissed off. They increase much more, and things get much worse, they are going to get expelled from the country.
I think it is just a matter of time.
In the last French presidential election Le Pen was number two. He wants to expel all the muslims.
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12-09-2006, 09:24 AM
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#1793
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,050
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by Spanky
I think that just reconfirms what I am saying. The muslims are not being accepted into French society. They are being segregated into Ghettos when they are still a small percent of the population. They are not given jobs. The muslims are pissed off. They increase much more, and things get much worse, they are going to get expelled from the country.
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Ironic that many conservatives want to make our immigration policy more like France's.
__________________
“It was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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12-09-2006, 05:11 PM
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#1794
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Ironic that many conservatives want to make our immigration policy more like France's.
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Ironic? I don't know if it is ironic. However, I believe that a significant source of their fear of immigration is the same source that has inspired and keeps inspiring Europeans to move their borders closer to entholinguistic lines: tribalism (that is the nice term for it, another term for it is ethnolinguistic and racial bigotry).
I believe those same inclinations will keep Turkey out of the EU.
Having said that, people of the Americas (and particularly the people of the United States) seem to be much less susceptible to this force than Europeans.
Last edited by Spanky; 12-09-2006 at 05:20 PM..
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12-09-2006, 05:14 PM
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#1795
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Consigliere
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Pelosi Land!
Posts: 9,477
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Tyrone Slothrop
Ironic that many conservatives want to make our immigration policy more like France's.
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We have an immigration policy?
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12-09-2006, 05:20 PM
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#1796
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 26,203
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Spanky Group
Quote:
Originally posted by Spanky
I think that just reconfirms what I am saying. The muslims are not being accepted into French society. They are being segregated into Ghettos when they are still a small percent of the population. They are not given jobs. The muslims are pissed off. They increase much more, and things get much worse, they are going to get expelled from the country.
I think it is just a matter of time.
In the last French presidential election Le Pen was number two. He wants to expel all the muslims.
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The best defense against Islam appears to be daily carpet bombing with Salt Peter. For a people with so many hang-ups about sex, they do an awful lot of fucking...
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
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12-09-2006, 05:34 PM
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#1797
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For what it's worth
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: With Thumper
Posts: 6,793
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Defenders of Israel?
I can't believe there wasn't a twenty car pile up over my post on Isreal yesterday? Don't people on this board support Israel? I accused Israel of ethnic cleansing and illegally occupying people. Is it just that people don't want to take Slave's side on anything?
quote:
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Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
As John McLaughlin says...."WRONG"
Israel won the land after fighting and winning a war in which they were initially attacked.
Since when - as a principle of warfare - do the losers get their land back?
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quote:
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Originally posted by Spanky
Under international law, winners don't get to take land.
Since we won in Iraq, do we get to kick half the Iraqis out, fill that land with Texans, and then occupy the other half of Iraq indefinitely to protect the Texans?
Do you get to occupy another country indefinitely? Russia was attacked by Germany, Romania and Hungary during WWII. So how long should Russia have been able to occupy those countries?
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quote:
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Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
If you flood Israel with millions of Arabs, you are advocating ethnic clensing and genocide. Nothing more, nothing less.
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quote:
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Originally posted by Spanky
Yes but what about kicking out all those Arabs out of Isreal proper? Wasn't that ethnic cleansing? I think about 80 percent of the Jews that live in Isreal today are from somewhere else. So most of the Jews that are there are from somewhere else, and the Arabs that lived there were kicked out.
Wouldn't letting the Arab's back in be reverse ethnic cleansing?
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12-09-2006, 06:46 PM
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#1798
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Consigliere
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Pelosi Land!
Posts: 9,477
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This guy sums up everything pretty damn succinctly:
- There are only two choices, fight now or fight later. Color them in whatever shade of pastel language you want. Draw comparisons to whatever past evil regimes you want. We ignored radical Islam and it crawled up and bit us in the ass. Keep ignoring it (read: apeasing those who ferment it) and it will come back to bite something more important to us.
- The difference between past battles won and lost is the will to win completely and totally. Thinking you can go light or cheap or "police" the situation leaves us with things like two Koreas (and that's worked out swimmingly). No stomach for the full court press on those we're now advised to talk to? Hope you can stomach the gore that will follow (tomorrow, next year, five years from now). How successful is talking? How many IL-PA peace deals/accords have been made and broken? What do they call it when you do the same thing over and over again expecting a different result?
- People are against the war? No, people are against LOSING. We have the situation we have today because we have been sending men away to die; send them to win and we would have been that much farther down the road to forgetting who Baker and Hamilton were.
link
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12-09-2006, 07:50 PM
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#1799
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Wild Rumpus Facilitator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: In a teeny, tiny, little office
Posts: 14,167
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Defenders of Israel?
Quote:
Originally posted by Spanky
I can't believe there wasn't a twenty car pile up over my post on Isreal yesterday? Don't people on this board support Israel? I accused Israel of ethnic cleansing and illegally occupying people. Is it just that people don't want to take Slave's side on anything?
quote:
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Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
As John McLaughlin says...."WRONG"
Israel won the land after fighting and winning a war in which they were initially attacked.
Since when - as a principle of warfare - do the losers get their land back?
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quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Spanky
Under international law, winners don't get to take land.
Since we won in Iraq, do we get to kick half the Iraqis out, fill that land with Texans, and then occupy the other half of Iraq indefinitely to protect the Texans?
Do you get to occupy another country indefinitely? Russia was attacked by Germany, Romania and Hungary during WWII. So how long should Russia have been able to occupy those countries?
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quote:
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Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
If you flood Israel with millions of Arabs, you are advocating ethnic clensing and genocide. Nothing more, nothing less.
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quote:
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Originally posted by Spanky
Yes but what about kicking out all those Arabs out of Isreal proper? Wasn't that ethnic cleansing? I think about 80 percent of the Jews that live in Isreal today are from somewhere else. So most of the Jews that are there are from somewhere else, and the Arabs that lived there were kicked out.
Wouldn't letting the Arab's back in be reverse ethnic cleansing?
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1. Fuck 'em. Israel won it and they're gonna keep it. You can argue whether it was right or wrong all you want, but that's where the Europeans decided to let "the Jew problem" settle itself, since it was easier than trying to repossess the land and personal property the Jews had been dispossessed of by the Nazis' decision to try and kill them all off.
2. If you really believe that countries can't hold onto territory because they possessed it under hostile terms, when are you planning to give your house back to the Mexicans, so they can give it back to the Spaniards, so they can give it back to the Indians?
3. Russia decided it was cheaper to simply turn Hungary, Yougolsavia, Romania, etc, into vassal states than it would be to occupy over the long haul.
4. On Iraq, we can't really move the Texans in until we move the troops out. And, well, we can't ever really move all the troops out. So I guess we'll be occupying Iraq for the idefinite future, but not with Texans.
5. When Israel kicks Arabs out of their territory, it really isn't ethnic cleansing or tribalism, so much as a recognition that they can't trust them and can't police them. Anyway, they have the whole rest of the Middle East to settle in, so....
6. Once again, fuck 'em.
(the new, pragmatic) Taxwonk
__________________
Send in the evil clowns.
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12-09-2006, 09:04 PM
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#1800
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Proud Holder-Post 200,000
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 86,129
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Defenders of Israel?
Quote:
Originally posted by taxwonk
1. Fuck 'em. Israel won it and they're gonna keep it. You can argue whether it was right or wrong all you want, but that's where the Europeans decided to let "the Jew problem" settle itself, since it was easier than trying to repossess the land and personal property the Jews had been dispossessed of by the Nazis' decision to try and kill them all off.
2. If you really believe that countries can't hold onto territory because they possessed it under hostile terms, when are you planning to give your house back to the Mexicans, so they can give it back to the Spaniards, so they can give it back to the Indians?
3. Russia decided it was cheaper to simply turn Hungary, Yougolsavia, Romania, etc, into vassal states than it would be to occupy over the long haul.
4. On Iraq, we can't really move the Texans in until we move the troops out. And, well, we can't ever really move all the troops out. So I guess we'll be occupying Iraq for the idefinite future, but not with Texans.
5. When Israel kicks Arabs out of their territory, it really isn't ethnic cleansing or tribalism, so much as a recognition that they can't trust them and can't police them. Anyway, they have the whole rest of the Middle East to settle in, so....
6. Once again, fuck 'em.
(the new, pragmatic) Taxwonk
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wow.
so this new "terrorist" guy from chicago- do you think really he's just a crazy guy who is Islamic, but now Islamic crazy people think about killing Jews. his first thought was go to the temple and kill someone in the parking lot-
The paper paints it like he's AQ, but really I think he's simply nutso. Like say if David Berkowitz was religion of peace, he would choose to kill maybe just Jewish couples instead of any couples. killing one person in a parking lot isn't really an AQ action, you know? Of course we're better with him gone.
__________________
I will not suffer a fool- but I do seem to read a lot of their posts
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