Patting the wrists, rolling the eyes.

[ltl/fb]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
But he gassed his own people!

Oh. Right. Sorry. Rescinded.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by ltl/fb
If there are only 22 million people, even with a pretty high birthrate, and even given 10 years or so, that's a significant proportion of the population.

They told me there would be no math.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
They told me there would be no math.

Wish I'd known that before I bothered to respond to your point about extrapolation.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Wish I'd known that before I bothered to respond to your point about extrapolation.

Just means I'm not going to debate the math of the extrapolation. I think that, over fifteen years, given the age range of Iraqis and their birthrate, they could hit fifteen million dead from Saddam, and I'm not going to start a dialogue here about all the variables that might affect that. If someone wants to sit back satisfied and think "Bilmore could defend, at best, 12.9 million", great, have fun.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
Just means I'm not going to debate the math of the extrapolation. I think that, over fifteen years, given the age range of Iraqis and their birthrate, they could hit fifteen million dead from Saddam, and I'm not going to start a dialogue here about all the variables that might affect that. If someone wants to sit back satisfied and think "Bilmore could defend, at best, 12.9 million", great, have fun.

Introduce a little math and you do get addled, don't you.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Introduce a little math and you do get addled, don't you.

I hate math.


P.S. Banner seen in Beruit this morning:

"Syria out, no half measures!"

Where have I seen that quote before?

[Sexual Harassment Panda]

Originally posted by bilmore
I hate math.


P.S. Banner seen in Beruit this morning:

"Syria out, no half measures!"

Where have I seen that quote before?

Fox News, about every half hour.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Sexual Harassment Panda
Fox News, about every half hour.

Ah, that's where Bush got it! Thanks!

[bilmore]

Originally posted by bilmore
Ah, that's where Bush got it! Thanks!

"That's right, they're quoting President Bush, the simian-American unilateralist cowboy! And they're not alone. In a Washington Post essay, Youssef Ibrahim, formerly a reporter for the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and now a Dubai-based consultant, says that throughout the Arab world are coming "murmurs of approval for the devoutly Christian U.S. president, whose persistent calls for democracy in the Middle East are looking less like preaching and more like timely encouragement":

"His talk about democracy is good," an Egyptian-born woman was telling companions at the Fatafeet (or "Crumbs") restaurant the other night, exuberant enough for her voice to carry to neighboring tables. "He keeps hitting this nail. That's good, by God, isn't it?" At another table, a Lebanese man was waxing enthusiastic over Bush's blunt and irreverent manner toward Arab autocrats. "It is good to light a fire under their feet," he said.

From Casablanca to Kuwait City, the writings of newspaper columnists and the chatter of pundits on Arabic language satellite television suggest a change in climate for advocates of human rights, constitutional reforms, business transparency, women's rights and limits on power. And while developments differ vastly from country to country, their common feature is a lifting--albeit a tentative one--of the fear that has for decades constricted the Arab mind.

Regardless of Bush's intentions--which many Arabs and Muslims still view with suspicion--the U.S. president and his neoconservative crowd are helping to spawn a spirit of reform and a new vigor to confront dynastic dictatorships and other assorted ills.

Ibraham himself admits to second thoughts: "It's enough for someone like me, who has felt that Bush's attitude toward the Mideast has been all wrong, to wonder whether his idea of setting the Muslim house in order is right.""

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110006422

[ltl/fb]

Originally posted by bilmore
Just means I'm not going to debate the math of the extrapolation. I think that, over fifteen years, given the age range of Iraqis and their birthrate, they could hit fifteen million dead from Saddam, and I'm not going to start a dialogue here about all the variables that might affect that. If someone wants to sit back satisfied and think "Bilmore could defend, at best, 12.9 million", great, have fun.

I'm more worried about whether you are off by an order of magnitude. 12.9 million is basically 15 million, but 3 million is not even close to 15 million. But, whatever.

[Bad_Rich_Chic]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
what prompted us to invade Afghanistan and Iraq was a variety of other facts relating mostly to military threats against us.

I just had to see that under your "posted by" line again.

BR(I thought it was to enrich Bush's oil cronies)C

[Spanky]

I have a friend that just got back from Iran, and she told me the same thing the editor of USA was saying lastnight on CSPAN when she was being invterviewed by the owner. Especially among the students, the elections in Iraq have had a huge mental impact on Iran. Everyone is talking about the fact that Iran had its first parliamentary elections in 1906 and now the backward Arabs in Iraq are ahead of them. Everyone complaining to eachother that Iran has fallen behind. IN addition, the students love it every time Bush talks "tough" to the Iranian government because they believe (probably wrongly) that every time the US acts tough the chances for them getting more freedom improves.

If the Iraqi elections are influencing Iran, they have to be having some impact in Lebanon.

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I'll say the same thing I posted last week when you told me Bush set a new "tone": I haven't seen any actual reporting suggesting that what happened in Iraq has influenced what happened in Lebanon. Inside the Beltway, among people who spent more time watching the President's last State of the Union speech than they have spent in their entire lifetimes trying to understand Lebanese history or politics, it may be taken as a given that Mr. Bush and the Iraqi people are responsible for all the good that transpires in Lebanon. Whoop de do.

Elections are not new to Lebanon. And what you have there is not exactly a groundswell for representative democracy, except among the Hezbollah supporters who would like to have representation proportionate to their numbers -- something your "pro-democracy" Maronites and Druze have opposed.

If our invasion of Iraq made a difference, I suggest the difference is that Syria feels exposed now in a way that it did not before, and feels compelled to withdraw its forces as a result. That is a good thing -- one hopes, unless the Lebanese start killing each other again, which is what was happening when a Republican administration with Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense invited Syrian troops into the country -- that results from the invasion. But it doesn't have much to do with Hallmark-card-grade sentiment about democracy.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Bad_Rich_Chic
I just had to see that under your "posted by" line again.

BR(I thought it was to enrich Bush's oil cronies)C

Bitch, please. I will buy you an expensive bottle of pinot noir if you can find a post where I said that. I think you are confusing me with your other wackadoo friend named Tyrone.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Spanky
I have a friend that just got back from Iran, and she told me the same thing the editor of USA was saying lastnight on CSPAN when she was being invterviewed by the owner. Especially among the students, the elections in Iraq have had a huge mental impact on Iran. Everyone is talking about the fact that Iran had its first parliamentary elections in 1906 and now the backward Arabs in Iraq are ahead of them. Everyone complaining to eachother that Iran has fallen behind. IN addition, the students love it every time Bush talks "tough" to the Iranian government because they believe (probably wrongly) that every time the US acts tough the chances for them getting more freedom improves.

If the Iraqi elections are influencing Iran, they have to be having some impact in Lebanon.

Though I have never been to Iran, I have several Persian friends who return to Iran every year or so. This sort of talk has been going on in Iran since Khomeni died.

Oh, and they are also convinced that backward Arabs couldn't have done anything as sophisticated as 9/11. They believe the Jews did it, although they're willing to concede that maybe the CIA did it to give W the excuse to invade Iraq.

[Spanky]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Though I have never been to Iran, I have several Persian friends who return to Iran every year or so. This sort of talk has been going on in Iran since Khomeni died.

Oh, and they are also convinced that backward Arabs couldn't have done anything as sophisticated as 9/11. They believe the Jews did it, although they're willing to concede that maybe the CIA did it to give W the excuse to invade Iraq.

Have your friends been back since the Iraqi elections? If they have, have you asked them what the impact of the Iraqi elections has been? It is my understanding that most thought they would never come off, and if they did, that it would be rigged so the Iranian leaning parties would never come out on top. When these parties did come out on top it was quite a shock - so I am told.