Waiting for Fitzgerald

[Captain]

Originally posted by ltl/fb
No, no, I was being self-indulgent. Pointless argument is the point of this place.

Good, because I can't come up with anything funny about the budget.

[Spanky]

Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
My God, you people have saved the nation!

We've been such fools. I see it now. I'm switching parties this year!

S_A_M

P.S. For someone who deals in numbers as much as you do, and presumably studied statistics in college (at least one basic course), I'm a bit surprised that you seem to assume that correlation equals causation, and that you have so little appreciation for the many potential confounding variables at work.

Nope. It's -- "Hey Boys, Newt and Trent took over, we're saved! The world is finally safe for rich, investors. Turn the big wheel and lower the rates!"

I am not confusing anything and there is direct causation here. Long term intereste rates are completely intertwined with long term projections on US Federal Budget Deficit. Bond traders are always discussing what goes on with the budget.

You may critisize the Republican all you want, but you have to admit that in 94 the new Republican congress showed party discipline that we will probably never see again in our lifetimes. Gingrich had such control that in 95 some people were saying Clinton had become irrelevant. Any bill put before congress there were very few Republican defections. And the budget bills were passed with incredible speed and efficiency.

In 1994 and 1995 I was working for a large corporate Japanese law firm in Tokyo and our clients were all the big investment banks. In addition, I hung out with all the bond traders. I remember the dissapointment in Clintons ability to control his party, the sckepticism that people had with Gingrish being able to control the new Repubs, and the utter shock when he did. Clinton was given a pass because he had put Rubin in as Treasury Secretary but by 94 the pass was revoked. Hence the incredibly high long term bond rates.

No one expected the Repubs to win. When they did there was euphoria in the markets. There was complete shock when Gingrich was able to tightly control his party and when he come up with his budget plan, and people realized he was going to pass it, there was a whole new confidence in the bond markets.

Isn't someone else on this board involved in the bond markets?

[Sidd Finch]

Originally posted by Spanky
How can you say this with a straight face. First of all, the cuts would have been bigger if Clinton had not opposed them. The growing economy was the biggest factor in balancing the budget. Then the fact that the Repubs were able to stem government growth.

So is it your theory that under Bush, there has been no government growth, and the recession (which really didn't last very long, because after all Bush's tax cuts ended it so fast) is the reason for the staggering deficit that we've had since he took office?

Incredible. Truly, deeply incredible. And yet, I think this is what you believe. The tax cuts had nothing to do with reducing revenues, and those nasty Dems with their secret, cabal-like mind control techniques, are causing the massive increase in spending.

let's talk about how the earth is really flat. Or how our mission was accomplished in Iraq in 03.

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Has long has this NBC "Live at Five" talk show talking-schmoe Jack Cafferty been on CNN?

Somehow I missed this.

Weird, right? That voice has meant "local news" to me since I was knee-high to the Defender machine down at the record store. Now when I hear it I think "I bet that guy likes his whiskey."

[robustpuppy]

Originally posted by ironweed
Weird, right? That voice has meant "local news" to me since I was knee-high to the Defender machine down at the record store. Now when I hear it I think "I bet that guy likes his whiskey."

My insurance agent's name is Sue Simmons. And I talked to Chuck Scarborough on the phone once -- I signed his kid up for SAT tutoring.

[Spanky]

Originally posted by Captain
The statement that "the growing economy was the biggest factor..." does not appear right, because governmental receipts grew much faster than the economy, and this differential makes up a very large part of the surplus.

Actually this is not true. Deficit prediction are almost always to high in a growing economy and too low in a slowing economy because of the multiplier effect. When the economy grows, tax receipts grow at a higher percentage than the economy. One of the reasons is "bracket creep". People get pushed into higher tax brackets where they pay a higher percentage of taxes. There are also many other factors.

If people remember, no one saw how quickly the budget was going to get balanced. Every quarter the deficit was being adjusted down because of unanticipated growth in revenue from the economic growth.

[Not Bob]

Originally posted by Captain
Good, because I can't come up with anything funny about the budget.

Thurman Munson? Nice. And was that Meg Ryan before Thurman? Why, if one may ask, was she your avatar?

Are you related to Dave (a poster who had a rotating list of "Dave" avatars), perchance?

[Spanky]

Originally posted by Sidd Finch
So is it your theory that under Bush, there has been no government growth, and the recession (which really didn't last very long, because after all Bush's tax cuts ended it so fast) is the reason for the staggering deficit that we've had since he took office?

You just are not paying attention. The deficit was caused by both the diminishing economy, tax cuts and spending increases. But that is OK, because that is what you do in a recession. Cut taxes, increase spending to pull you out.

Now that we are growing again the government should cut spending. The Repubs are not doing a very good job at that but it is not like there is an alternative. If the firemen are not doing a very good job putting out fires, you don't turn the job over to the girl scouts.

[Captain]

Originally posted by Not Bob
Thurman Munson? Nice. And was that Meg Ryan before Thurman? Why, if one may ask, was she your avatar?

Are you related to Dave (a poster who had a rotating list of "Dave" avatars), perchance?

All captains. Meg Ryan was Captain Walden in Courage Under Fire.

The rotating avatars were a bit of an accident. I switched to Lincoln when there was a discussion on slavery and someone asked me to change it, and I got a number of suggestions. I don't know Dave.

[SlaveNoMore]

Munson - now we talkin'!!!

[Captain]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Munson - now we talkin'!!!

This seemed like an appropriate time for it.

[SlaveNoMore]

Captain
This seemed like an appropriate time for it.

Discussion about Carter-era inflation... or Red Sox slump?

[Captain]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Discussion about Carter-era inflation... or Red Sox slump?

The Yankees have been winning. They would be in first regardless of anything Congress or the Red Sox have done.

(Finally, a budget joke!)

Originally posted by robustpuppy
My insurance agent's name is Sue Simmons. And I talked to Chuck Scarborough on the phone once -- I signed his kid up for SAT tutoring.

Oh yeah? I pissed on Len Berman's shoes one time in the men's room at the Boardy Barn. I bitch-slapped Ernie Anastos at the Massapequa 7-11 and stole his car. Strong Island, bay-beee!

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Fuck that.

For a bottle of Johnny Blue and a box of cigars, I'll just delete both of you.

Much cheaper option.

First sign of a corrupt regime, when the going gets tough, the tough take bribes to abuse power. I thought you were all about helping the charities?