Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

My work will be offering the antibody test to everyone when we go back. I'm really curious if I had it in February. I don't think so, but it'd be a relief if I did.

Which test? Cellex is supposed to be best, but even that’s 70%. Is there’s better one?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Which test? Cellex is supposed to be best, but even that’s 70%. Is there’s better one?

is it false negatives or false positives?

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Which test? Cellex is supposed to be best, but even that’s 70%. Is there’s better one?

We're waiting for a better one to be developed before offering it. It's for a research study, so I'm going to guess that it's not going to be out yet.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I waded onto FB thru spouse's account a few weeks back. It's remarkable from an anthropological perspective. You can see the people who can think through this thing and spot the essential issue. It's roughly 1/3 of people I observed. Then you have a third that see everything thru a political lens. These people are the morons of the bunch, arguing about blame endlessly. Then you have the scared people who seem to have thought that if they just locked down for a bit, the disease would miss them, like a modern Passover. That last group doesn't seem to grasp the concept of viruses very well, and they seem to be sincerely confused and frightened. Nevertheless, their holding onto an ignorance regarding the operation of viruses - a very attractive ignorance, or perhaps delusion - endangers the rest of us by causing people to think an endless lockdown works.



Alito has compelled our governor to explain in a filing ordered to be sent to SCOTUS on Monday how he selected certain businesses for mandatory closure while exempting others. I don't think he was political, but the lobbyists and people below him are very political. Many unions and trade groups are going to find themselves investigated after this situation ends. The selection of winners and losers was arbitrary in numerous regards.

(I love that throughout this I have watched a developer build an entire housing development down the street, and another put one up a few miles further, despite there being a ban on construction services. I'd be appalled to see a bar, restaurant, or club owner defy the governor as that's high risk stuff. But the ban on construction was silly and I think done opportunistically at the behest of unions. Good on those developers for borrowing from the Uber business model and openly ignoring it.)

Here's the thing, though. Close to everywhere else in the world, aside from the UK and Sweden, has managed to use lockdowns, masks and testing to actually shrink their case count. They aren't racing toward a mislabeled "herd immunity" that is actually just everyone getting sick as soon as possible. Why couldn't we do that? Well, partly do to poor preparation, leadership and messaging. We, like the UK, stumbled before we even got to the starting line.

Meanwhile, I went to the grocery store this morning. In the parking lot, I saw a guy walk out with three items (wasn't wearing a mask but might just taken it off). The first people I saw inside was a elderly couple shopping together with no mask. Maybe we're just too stupid as a people to grasp the basics of minimizing exposure.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Here's the thing, though. Close to everywhere else in the world, aside from the UK and Sweden, has managed to use lockdowns, masks and testing to actually shrink their case count. They aren't racing toward a mislabeled "herd immunity" that is actually just everyone getting sick as soon as possible. Why couldn't we do that? Well, partly do to poor preparation, leadership and messaging. We, like the UK, stumbled before we even got to the starting line.

Meanwhile, I went to the grocery store this morning. In the parking lot, I saw a guy walk out with three items (wasn't wearing a mask but might just taken it off). The first people I saw was a elderly couple shopping together with no mask. Maybe we're just too stupid as a people to grasp the basics of minimizing exposure.

I don’t think anyone sane here is arguing for everybody to get sick ASAP. I think most people, like me, are wearing masks to try to ensure that as the population gets it, it gets it slowly, in a manageable fashion.

I think some people still thought they were going to outlast it - avoid it until we had a vaccine or treatment.

They seem to be the people most exercised about the situation, as the data coming out indicates it’s not going away in summer, and no treatment or vaccine is going to be around any time soon. They keep arguing in strange absolutes about how reopening will cost lives, and blaming people in the govt. What they’re actually doing is pathetically grasping for control.

I also see a lot of old people disregarding suggested protocols. I think some are just nuts, or dumb, but I think others understand from experience that some stuff is just beyond one’s control. I think they’re wrong, of course. Avoiding this is within one’s control if one is an old retired person. They could and should stay home. But they aren’t as irrational as the younger people framing this as a battle between saving lives and saving an economy.

I also think there’s a lot of people who deeply want to see this change society. And as we attempt to move back toward the normal quickly they see a possible opportunity lost. They want the l-shaped non-recovery so they can engage the big debate about restructuring society. So any effort to get back to what was before enflames them. I think they’re overwrought. Society is going to be restructured in many ways as a result of this even if we magically find a vaccine next week. They’ll get some form of their wish.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

But the ban on construction was silly and I think done opportunistically at the behest of unions.

Don't the unions want the jobs?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Don't the unions want the jobs?

Our governor left construction open. Unions here petitioned her to shut it down. You cannot "safe distance" in most of those jobs.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Adder

Here's the thing, though. Close to everywhere else in the world, aside from the UK and Sweden, has managed to use lockdowns, masks and testing to actually shrink their case count. They aren't racing toward a mislabeled "herd immunity" that is actually just everyone getting sick as soon as possible. Why couldn't we do that? Well, partly do to poor preparation, leadership and messaging. We, like the UK, stumbled before we even got to the starting line.

Meanwhile, I went to the grocery store this morning. In the parking lot, I saw a guy walk out with three items (wasn't wearing a mask but might just taken it off). The first people I saw inside was a elderly couple shopping together with no mask. Maybe we're just too stupid as a people to grasp the basics of minimizing exposure.

[Icky Thump]

So sorry, behind door number 3 is a used diaper

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

So sorry, behind door number 3 is a used diaper

Funny how people* pointed to Sweden for what the US could be for free education and health care, then point to why it has nothing to do with us.

*not you icky, other people

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Yeah, exactly what I was referencing.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Adder

Yeah, exactly what I was referencing.

Dude, it ain't "beat." Anywhere. "How they delayed it until a few more months" might be a thing, but ain't no beating.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Dude, it ain't "beat." Anywhere. "How they delayed it until a few more months" might be a thing, but ain't no beating.

The blue ones it't mostly beat.

Now, what happens when they let other people in the country is anyone's guess. But they ain't letting Americans in until WE have herd immunity. Which will be after the Murder Hornets run through us.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Dude, it ain't "beat." Anywhere. "How they delayed it until a few more months" might be a thing, but ain't no beating.

Places with dramatically declining case rates aren't just delaying the peak. Sure, they will likely see other futures spikes, but the most successful places have stopped community spread all together and all of them have at least slowed it. Those are places with hope of "beating" it.

Maybe there will never be a treatment and/or vaccine and ending lockdowns will mean their success is only temporary. Or maybe it can be controlled with testing, tracing and masks until there's a better option.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Places with dramatically declining case rates aren't just delaying the peak. Sure, they will likely see other futures spikes, but the most successful places have stopped community spread all together and all of them have at least slowed it. Those are places with hope of "beating" it.

Maybe there will never be a treatment and/or vaccine and ending lockdowns will mean their success is only temporary. Or maybe it can be controlled with testing, tracing and masks until there's a better option.

But how does a country stay isolated until there's a vaccine or treatment? That's a long time to be shut off from so much commerce.

The US, UK, Sweden, and China will effectively be able to travel and engage in commerce between each other far ahead of those blue countries. (If we're not at war with China.)