Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower

The max that we’ll see is a few thousand dead!
(We get that each day, but who cares what I said)
Instead I’ll attack all these men made of straw
To distract from my bullshit, the truth is too raw
I get oh so mad when I’m caught in a lie
So I write awful poems at home when I’m high

The weed thinks it could make one mad
The weed is impossibly sad
Some would say plainly, insanely (inanely?) deluded
It's clear the ground on which he lives should be denuded

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

You don't know much about workouts.

Banks hate taking assets. If there is no buyer for real estate or equipment against which the bank is collateralized (and indeed PE would be one of the sole sources of capital able to do so) the bank has two choices:

1. Auction collateral at huge loss; or,
2. Workout the loan

You're correct that BofA or WF aren't initially going to workout much for smaller businesses. But regionals and community banks will do so. And over time, as huge # of businesses become distressed, big banks will do so as well. Having a loan in workout on the books is preferable to realizing loss (particularly where bank would be realizing huge # of losses at once).

I'm just grateful that I could give you a chance to shine with your knowledge about workouts.

What you're saying is, taking away people's cars will force them to take city buses more, because they really don't want to walk. Taking away people's cars leaves them worse off, though.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I never thought it would come to this. You are taking the word of some foreigner over our very own sebby?

He's a US citizen.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The weed thinks it could make one mad
The weed is impossibly sad
Some would say plainly, insanely (inanely?) deluded
It's clear the ground on which he lives should be denuded

Who'd have thought we'd be missing 2010 Flower?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Let me pour some salt in this wound:

“Authorities” by their nature are untrustworthy. Sometimes they have an interest in denying truths, and sometimes they actually try to define truth as being whatever they say it is. “Elevating authoritative content” over independent or less well-known sources is an algorithmic take on the journalistic obsession with credentialing that has been slowly destroying our business for decades.

The WMD fiasco happened because journalists listened to people with military ranks and titles instead of demanding evidence and listening to their own instincts. The same thing happened with Russiagate, a story fueled by intelligence “experts” with grand titles who are now proven to have been wrong to a spectacular degree, if not actually criminally liable in pushing a fraud.

We’ve become incapable of talking calmly about possible solutions because we’ve lost the ability to decouple scientific or policy discussions, or simple issues of fact, from a political argument. Reporting on the Covid-19 crisis has become the latest in a line of moral manias with Donald Trump in the middle.

Instead of asking calmly if hydroxychloroquine works, or if the less restrictive Swedish crisis response has merit, or questioning why certain statistical assumptions about the seriousness of the crisis might have been off, we’re denouncing the questions themselves as infamous. Or we’re politicizing the framing of stories in a way that signals to readers what their take should be before they even digest the material. “Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in Progressive Sweden,” reads a Politico headline, as if only conservatives should feel optimism in the possibility that a non-lockdown approach might have merit! Are we rooting for such an approach to not work?

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/tempor...rus-censorship

Do you disagree with anything Taibbi says here?

[Pretty Little Flower]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Who'd have thought we'd be missing 2010 Flower?

You’re just jelly because nobody misses any of the Hank years. Or even remembers them.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower

You’re just jelly because nobody misses any of the Hank years. Or even remembers them.

I know I don't😪🥵 remember them.


Thanks a lot, I was trying to make a dumb joke at the only chat room where (I thought) I fit in🙁😫 I guess I should stop posting here. Back to lurking?

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Let me pour some salt in this wound:

“Authorities” by their nature are untrustworthy. Sometimes they have an interest in denying truths, and sometimes they actually try to define truth as being whatever they say it is. “Elevating authoritative content” over independent or less well-known sources is an algorithmic take on the journalistic obsession with credentialing that has been slowly destroying our business for decades.

The WMD fiasco happened because journalists listened to people with military ranks and titles instead of demanding evidence and listening to their own instincts. The same thing happened with Russiagate, a story fueled by intelligence “experts” with grand titles who are now proven to have been wrong to a spectacular degree, if not actually criminally liable in pushing a fraud.

We’ve become incapable of talking calmly about possible solutions because we’ve lost the ability to decouple scientific or policy discussions, or simple issues of fact, from a political argument. Reporting on the Covid-19 crisis has become the latest in a line of moral manias with Donald Trump in the middle.

Instead of asking calmly if hydroxychloroquine works, or if the less restrictive Swedish crisis response has merit, or questioning why certain statistical assumptions about the seriousness of the crisis might have been off, we’re denouncing the questions themselves as infamous. Or we’re politicizing the framing of stories in a way that signals to readers what their take should be before they even digest the material. “Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in Progressive Sweden,” reads a Politico headline, as if only conservatives should feel optimism in the possibility that a non-lockdown approach might have merit! Are we rooting for such an approach to not work?

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/tempor...rus-censorship

I used to love Oliver. He had great timing. Then he became a preachy, self-important imp. Jon Stewart could pull off political bits because he was smart. Maher can pull it off because he is smart. Letterman could do it well. Kimmel succeeds at it. Oliver has become a dimwit who services an audience of middle minds. He and Seth Meyers are cruising on political points and tribal "atta boys" from people like Flower in place of actually funny bits. Unlettered views for unsophisticated thinkers.

It sucks, because I used to really enjoy Oliver. He went from biting and astute to earnest and irritating overnight.

But I guess that's how it works. One must "pick a side."

I do not know why you are reading, much less quoting at length, Taibbi. No one save Greenwald has revealed themselves to be so lacking in credibility, much less judgment, and so clearly compromised.

[Pretty Little Flower]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I know I don't😪🥵 remember them.


Thanks a lot, I was trying to make a dumb joke at the only chat room where (I thought) I fit in🙁😫 I guess I should stop posting here. Back to lurking?

I was trying to play along with the joke.

And I ended up hurting you.

Maybe ... I’m the sociopath????

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower

I was trying to play along with the joke.

And I ended up hurting you.

Maybe ... I’m the sociopath????

Not a sociopath, but a very cruel man. You killed me here as I no longer can show my face here w/o feeling impotent. I suppose you aren’t as evil as less saying let old people die, but same ball park.

[Icky Thump]

nO lunGeR nUmBah w0N

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/sweden...rce=reddit.com

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

nO lunGeR nUmBah w0N

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/sweden...rce=reddit.com

https://www.businessinsider.com/half...ilities-2020-4

If this 1/2 adjustment is applied here, Covid has killed roughly the same # of non-nursing home resident Americans as the flu kills in total every year: 37k.

However, that 37k flu # is a total #, so it would include nursing home residents.

So at the moment, Covid appears to be killing at a rate of 2x the flu. That’s pretty much in line with statistical projections that have been around for a month or so at this point. (Whether this accrues more from unique contagiousness or disease features [likely both] is another conversation.). But it will of course go higher.

What would be interesting would be to see how many people in nursing homes the flu kills every year. Compare that to Covid’s lethality in those settings. Within that 37k total who die of flu, is it only 5% in nursing homes, or is it similar to Covid - 50%? You could tease out a calculation that would show that Covid’s lethality is overstated as the majority of its numbers accrue from a small subset of uniquely weak victims densely contained in facilities where a virus can run wild. You could also discover that the flu deaths per year are 75% located in nursing homes, which would mean Covid’s lethality among non-nursing home residents is the reason for its higher rate of deaths. But I think the former is way more likely than the latter.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

https://www.businessinsider.com/half...ilities-2020-4

If this 1/2 adjustment is applied here, Covid has killed roughly the same # of non-nursing home resident Americans [IN A FUCKING LOCKED DOWN MONTH] as the flu kills in total every year: 37k.

However, that 37k flu # is a total #, so it would include nursing home residents.

So at the moment, Covid appears to be killing at a rate of 2x the flu. That’s pretty much in line with statistical projections that have been around for a month or so at this point. (Whether this accrues more from unique contagiousness or disease features [likely both] is another conversation.). But it will of course go higher.

What would be interesting would be to see how many people in nursing homes the flu kills every year. Compare that to Covid’s lethality in those settings. Within that 37k total who die of flu, is it only 5% in nursing homes, or is it similar to Covid - 50%? You could tease out a calculation that would show that Covid’s lethality is overstated as the majority of its numbers accrue from a small subset of uniquely weak victims densely contained in facilities where a virus can run wild. You could also discover that the flu deaths per year are 75% located in nursing homes, which would mean Covid’s lethality among non-nursing home residents is the reason for its higher rate of deaths. But I think the former is way more likely than the latter.

Clarified that for you. This virus is unpredictable and deadly. Just heard of two more people in a family that got it. Dad hospitalized but recovered. 50YO model of health. Son cough for two days. No one else in the family.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Oh, I totally agree. There ought to be all the emergency money we can muster thrown at expanding hospital capacity to absorb what's coming. I'd take it out of the defense budget to the extent that's possible.

I think we also need to be level-headed in assessing the danger of this thing.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03...-we-think.html

That oft noted 3.4% death rate is somewhat misleading. Outside Wuhan, that quickly falls to .7. S. Korea has I think a .6 rate.

https://www.worth.com/coronavirus-da...dont-tell-you/

https://www.worth.com/how-mass-hyste...t-actually-is/

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-...ry?id=69477312

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/

The old and those with heart and respiratory conditions should be fearful. The rest of us will likely experience a mild flu.

How dare you have said this, March 2020 Sebastian!

This sort of use of statistics and reporting to suggest the US would have had a similar result to South Korea or areas outside Wuhan clearly fails to predict what would happen a month later.

You’ve got me so pissed I can’t even ride my Peloton and watch last night’s Rachel Maddow at the same time!

Sociopath! You’re just like Fox News!!!

I have to go now. The New Sebastian’s copy of Mother Jones just arrived, and there’s a new Chris Hayes podcast I have to listen to. But don’t forget — I am sooooo mad at you! I’d storm out in a huff if I had you in front me right now!

[Pretty Little Flower]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

How dare you have said this, March 2020 Sebastian!

This sort of use of statistics and reporting to suggest the US would have had a similar result to South Korea or areas outside Wuhan clearly fails to predict what would happen a month later.

You’ve got me so pissed I can’t even ride my Peloton and watch last night’s Rachel Maddow at the same time!

Sociopath! You’re just like Fox News!!!

I have to go now. The New Sebastian’s copy of Mother Jones just arrived, and there’s a new Chris Hayes podcast I have to listen to. But don’t forget — I am sooooo mad at you! I’d storm out in a huff if I had you in front me right now!

Ha ha! I totes got under your amazingly thin skin yesterday! I know, I know, you’ll deny it, but I’m just letting you know as a courtesy that doing so will only make you look like a pathetic liar. I tell you this because I care. I had to take a long hard look at myself in light of my exchange with Hank last night, and have turned over a new leaf. Kindness is the new cruelty!

Also, I wanted to point out that your statement in the quoted post about how this will be like a mild flu for anyone who is neither elderly or with pre-existing conditions is one of the Fox-generated lies that you blindly repeated like some brain dead cock juggling Hannity pimp.