A Forum for Grinches and Ho-Ho-Hoes

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub

• Karzai Sworn In as Afghan President
  
  By John Lancaster
  Washington Post Foreign Service
  Tuesday, December 7, 2004; 6:30 AM
  
  KABUL, Afghanistan, Dec. 7 -- Three years after the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan's first popularly elected president, Hamid Karzai, was sworn in Tuesday in a dignified, heavily guarded ceremony attended by hundreds of Afghan and foreign guests, including Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.
  
  In a brief inaugural address, Karzai expressed his thanks to the Afghan people, who defied Taliban threats to participate in largely peaceful national elections in October, and to the United States, which led the international coalition that ousted the Islamic fundamentalist regime in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Should we also be paying attention to the fact that his government doesn't control large portions of the country, or is that the sort of thing that we should be quiet about lest our enemies find out about it too?

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Should we also be paying attention to the fact that his government doesn't control large portions of the country, or is that the sort of thing that we should be quiet about lest our enemies find out about it too?

Always half full with you.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Always half full with you.

Re Afghanistan, the truer test of a democracy is whether power is surrendered peacefully. That's why what has been happening in Ukraine is far more meaningful and momentous than what has been happening in Afghanistan.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Re Afghanistan, the truer test of a democracy is whether power is surrendered peacefully. That's why what has been happening in Ukraine is far more meaningful and momentous than what has been happening in Afghanistan.

I agree with you, but you have to remember that Ukraine has been working towards democracy for a decade longer than Afghanistan.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
I agree with you, but you have to remember that Ukraine has been working towards democracy for a decade longer than Afghanistan.

Fine, but you were the one posting about Afghanistan, not Ukraine. And you're not saying much at all about Iraq lately, which is no surprise. Donald Rumsfeld just promised that our troops would be home within four years. When Kerry said something similar the conservative press attacked him for wanting to cut and run, but I don't suppose there's any point in waiting for criticism of Rumsfeld on the same score.

Obviously, we've all taken to heart the idea that in order to win the war in Iraq, it's dreadfully important that we pretend to be winning it, lest the insurgents learn from our media that they actually are winning, and proceed to win even more as a result. Consistent with this strategy,

• it's worth noting how far we've gone toward lowering the goalposts for "success" in Iraq. If you'd said before the war that over a year (and 1,000 U.S. fatalities) after the fall of Baghdad, U.S. forces would still be taking large numbers of casualties in an effort to create a government dominated by Shiite fundamentalists that has little capacity to exercise control over broad swathes of Iraqi territory you would have been labled a major-league pessimist about the venture. Now that's the hope of the optimists.

Yglesias in TAPPED.

Democracy in Iraq is right around the corner, right?

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Fine, but you were the one posting about Afghanistan, not Ukraine.

You are the one that brought Ukraine into the discussion, and fairly so. Look, this is a momentous step for them. In three short years, they have moved from a facist, dictatotorial state to one in which millions of citizens, including millions of women voted. Is there still much work to be done? Without of doubt, but Afghanistan is a catious "buy" right now.

And you're not saying much at all about Iraq lately, which is no surprise. Donald Rumsfeld just promised that our troops would be home within four years. When Kerry said something similar the conservative press attacked him for wanting to cut and run, but I don't suppose there's any point in waiting for criticism of Rumsfeld on the same score.

I'm not saying anything because it's tiresome to debate the same points over and over again. Although it's true that things have gone slower than I expected, I still have a positive outlook on Iraq, especially after the elections in Jan. You and others have unreal expectations and that is why you believe things are going so poorly.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Although it's true that things have gone slower than I expected, I still have a positive outlook on Iraq, especially after the elections in Jan.

What do you believe will happen after the elections in January?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
I still have a positive outlook on Iraq, especially after the elections in Jan.

Do you think that Sunnis will participate in the elections and find representation in the new government? If so, why?

You and others have unreal expectations and that is why you believe things are going so poorly.

This is the biggest, fattest softball I have seen in some time, and I only wish I had the time to go back and find the statements made by the Administration before the war so's to compare them with the reality we find ourselves in. My expectations are unreal? You have to be kidding me. This ongoing clusterfuck is more or less what I expected. You're the one who thought we were going to create a beacon for the Arab world. Meanwhile, we can't even protect the road between Baghdad and the airport.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Without of doubt, but Afghanistan is a catious "buy" right now.

The only thing to buy is opium. I'd be cautious buying opium futures, though. Production in Afghanistan has increased something like 1500% since 2001. I don't know if the demand has kept up.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Opium production in Afghanistan has increased something like 1500% since 2001.

You claim this stat is accurate, but Ty claims most of the country is too lawless for us to know anything. Who's right? Is this like your exit polls?

[SlaveNoMore]

Tyrone Slothrop
When Kerry said something similar the conservative press attacked him for wanting to cut and run, but I don't suppose there's any point in waiting for criticism of Rumsfeld on the same score.

No.

The conservative press attacked him because they - together with the leftward half of the Democratic base - all thought he was lying through his teeth.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
No.

The conservative press attacked him because they - together with the leftward half of the Democratic base - all thought he was lying through his teeth.

A ha. He said he wanted to bring the troops home, but they deduced that he wanted to leave them in Iraq for years -- nay, decades -- longer.

eta: On this score, I obviously don't give a flying fuck at this point what Kerry specifically said or whether the conservative press treated him fairly. The election is over. We're still at war. The war is going badly. I'm just wishing that conservatives would notice that, and apply the impressive forensic skills that they deployed against Kerry. 'Cause we all know that if Kerry had promised to bring the troops home in four years, you'd be all over him for showing weakness.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Gattigap
What do you believe will happen after the elections in January?

The elections are an extremely important step forward, to give the Iraqis confidence that they really and truly can have a democracy. But perhaps more importantly, I think that we will see a reduction in violence after the elections, as derailing the elections is one of the prime reasons for the recent spike in violence. The next round of violence will then focus on destabilzing the newly elected government and will thus be targeted more at the officials than at the citizens.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Do you think that Sunnis will participate in the elections and find representation in the new government? If so, why?

Yes. There has been quite a lot of movement in that direction recently, and I expect the Jordan meetings will help move it further. I also think they will participate because if they don't, they will lose out, at least initially, on having any influence. There is a giant game of chicken going on, and someone will need to blink shortly (and hint: it won't be the "delay elections" side, whether because Allawi is a puppet or otherwise).

This is the biggest, fattest softball I have seen in some time, and I only wish I had the time to go back and find the statements made by the Administration before the war so's to compare them with the reality we find ourselves in. My expectations are unreal? You have to be kidding me. This ongoing clusterfuck is more or less what I expected. You're the one who thought we were going to create a beacon for the Arab world. Meanwhile, we can't even protect the road between Baghdad and the airport.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. The administration's expectations were unreal. That is clear. But I think yours were and are as well. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, you seem to think that if there isn't a first world, functioning democracy, that it's a total failure. [intentional irony] Unfortunately, the world is not so black and white - you have to get more comfortable with the nuances [/intentional irony]

[SlaveNoMore]

Tyrone Slothrop
eta: The war is going badly.

Seems to be going a hell of a lot better since we entered Fallujah, no?