Politics: A new beginning

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
I have been, and after tonight's SNL*, I'm voting for Sharpton. He's almost as entertaining as Clniton. I might think differently tomorrow, though.

*Potentially outable. Please do not tell anybody that I'm not from Des Moines, Sacramento, Oklahoma, etc.

If you vote for Sharpton, you will certainly have a hangover.

You are clearly not from Sacramento, as it won't be airing for another 76 minutes or so here.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Not Me
However, since I heard Lieberman's joke about Mary Elizabeth O'Mallay being his great-grandmother, I may give him some money just because he made me laugh.

He probably would appreciate that, and he needs all the help he can get. Plus, it seems like a good idea to incent politicians to be funny.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Not Me
Don't spoil it for those of us on the Left Coast.

S

P

O

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L

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(I never thought I'd have to do this on the politics board)



The man can move.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
I would imagine that lending institutions don't like to extend credit to the unemployed, but I don't rightly know.

EXACTLY!!! Finally, some common sense. That is my point. WTF, these people are unemployed yet getting a bunch of credit? I know what SAM or whomever that was said, they got the credit before they became unemployed. Please. Do you really think that the average person doesn't use up all their credit as soon as they get it? Sorry that that is the ugly reality, but it is.

The idea that large numbers of people get discouraged and drop out of the labor force is a myth created by people trying to explain numbers that don't add up. However, the real reason that the numbers don't add up is because the methods of collecting the numbers are flawed. But that they don't want to admit.

No one who needs to work to eat gets discouraged by low job prospects and then drops out of the labor market. On the contrary, they get hungry and take seasonal/part time/temp jobs as best they can and then when some asshole calls them about a survey to estimate the jobless situation they either aren't at home to answer the fucking phone or they are so hungry that they don't have the strength to pick up the receiver. Just a thought.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Not Me
The idea that large numbers of people get discouraged and drop out of the labor force is a myth created by people trying to explain numbers that don't add up. However, the real reason that the numbers don't add up is because the methods of collecting the numbers are flawed. But that they don't want to admit.

No one who needs to work to eat gets discouraged by low job prospects and then drops out of the labor market. On the contrary, they get hungry and take seasonal/part time/temp jobs as best they can and then when some asshole calls them about a survey to estimate the jobless situation they either aren't at home to answer the fucking phone or they are so hungry that they don't have the strength to pick up the receiver. Just a thought.

Good God. If this gets out, the unemployment rate will drop like a stone and W.'s re-election will be assured. You'd better keep this to yourself, if you know what's good for you. If Dean found out it was you, well, I hear he gets a little nuts.

And in a completely unrelated announcement, the whole board will be closed for "maintenance" on Monday.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
[coherent (but not necessarily correct) thoughts articulated by stone-cold sober person on a Saturday night]

Why do you keep arguing with drunk people on a Saturday night? NTTAWWT.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
And in a completely unrelated announcement, the whole board will be closed for "maintenance" on Monday.

Shit. How am I supposed to get "work" done?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

I thought I'd spent twelve seconds with Google and see what I could find about the circumstances of discouraged workers. Here's an article from September from a Pennsylvania newspapers. Why did I look for this? Just for fun. The reporter's e-mail address is at the top, and his telephone number is at the end -- you can call the reporter if you have more questions.


Discouraged workers mask unemployment rate
Those who've given up looking for work are no longer counted as 'unemployed,' giving a false take on economic recovery.
By M. PAUL JACKSON
michaelj@leader.net

Nearly six months out of work, and Bobb Robbins has almost given up.
The former Techneglas worker was one of dozens of employees laid off last winter, during a series of cutbacks at the Jenkins Township manufacturing plant.

After searching for other work - including a distribution center - he decided to go back to school in the winter, he said.

Why? Frustration, mainly.

"It just seems that all the jobs are in Hazleton," said Robbins, a 37-year-old Harding resident, who is majoring in plumbing and heating technology at Luzerne County Community College.

"This area really doesn't have anything that people need to support them or their families," he said.

Robbins is one of a growing number of former employees categorized by state labor experts as "discouraged workers."

Discouraged workers have given up the search for a job, choosing to stay home or return to school.

They are no longer counted in the unemployment ranks - or even in the region's workforce, the total of those working and those unemployed.

Locally, the labor force has shrunk by more than 10,000 workers in the past 18 months. More than 18,000 workers are counted as unemployed.

That means that for every two unemployed workers, there may be one discouraged worker who also is out of a job - and no longer looking.

Robbins had applied for work at the T.J. Maxx plant in Pittston Township, but balked at the low pay.

"You can't cut it on 8 or 9 bucks an hour," said Robbins, a married father of one.

People are giving up

Discouraged workers aren't a regional or even state phenomenon.

Nationally, the number of discouraged workers has grown as laid-off employees try to find jobs in the stumbling economy.

The decision to ease away from a job search - and drop out of the labor force - has artificially reduced the state's unemployment figures.

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton unemployment rate dropped from 6.3 percent in June to 6.0 percent in July, but the number of people in the labor force dropped as well - from 304,600 to 304,300. (The labor force was 314,800 in January 2002.)

That's another sign of "discouraged workers," state experts say.

The region's unemployment rate remains higher than the state's.

According to the state Department of Labor and Industry, the Pennsylvania unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in July, compared to 5.8 percent the previous month.

The declining state and regional rates do not mean more people are finding jobs, said Scott Meckley, spokesman for the Labor Department's Center for Workforce Information and Analysis.

Quite the opposite.

The number of available workers in the region's labor force dropped 2.9 percent from July 2002 to July 2003 - at the same time the region's unemployment level dipped by about 600 workers, Meckley said.

The employment numbers are adjusted so they are not skewed by normal seasonal changes - holiday hirings and temporary summer layoffs in some industries, for example.

The labor force decline indicates more people have simply given up looking, he said.

"It's not that they've found jobs, it's that they've looked at other activities," Meckley said. "Primarily because the jobs aren't there."

Some of those other activities include returning to school.

According to Carol Bosack, director of career services at Wilkes University, more recent graduates are pursuing master's degrees rather than tackling a tough job market.

Students are "looking at different avenues," she said. "It seems to be a trend."

Rae Ann Marsland is one of those people.

Marsland - also a former Techneglas worker - lost her job in February. She is now enrolled in dental hygiene training at Luzerne County Community College, opting to return to school rather than pursue a manufacturing or service job.

"I did that for eight years, and it was going nowhere," said Marsland, 33, of Shavertown.

"I wanted to get into a field where there was a lot more opportunity for advancement. Manufacturing really isn't going anywhere."

Service jobs on rise

The number of manufacturing jobs are shrinking, economic experts agree.

For workers looking for jobs in that field, the search is often difficult.

Over the past decade, one of every six goods-producing jobs in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton area disappeared, according to state statistics. Goods-producing jobs include manufacturing, mining and construction.

At the same time, service industry jobs - which often pay less - have increased.

The number of regional service-oriented jobs - including customer service positions and restaurant positions - outnumbered goods-producing jobs by about 3 to 1 in 1998, for example.

This year, service jobs outnumbered goods-producing jobs by nearly 4 to 1, according to state labor statistics.

"The demand for goods ... has gone down," said Dr. Anthony Liuzzo, a Wilkes University economics professor. "We demand far more services than we did 10 or 12 years ago," he said.

Slowly improving

So where have all the jobs gone?

Companies like Techneglas have downsized, citing competition from overseas manufacturers.

Others have consolidated operations, keeping one plant open but closing another. Production efficiencies have allowed some companies to produce as much or more with fewer people.

Are there jobs for Northeastern Pennsylvania workers?

Yes, Liuzzo said, but workers have to keep searching.

The growth in service jobs "means people have to adjust," he said. "People have to be flexible."

Industry experts - including Meckley and Liuzzo - also say the economy is slowly improving, and job growth could follow.

Businesses already have begun updating their equipment and hiring temporary workers, Meckley said. That growth could lead to more jobs, he said.

"They're going to hire," he said. "It's a matter of when."

Meanwhile, state officials still count 18,300 regional residents as unemployed - meaning they are actively searching for work.

Jerry Wilk, a Wyoming resident, graduated from Marywood University in May and has been looking for work in the computer field since, he said.

Wilk, 38, spent 14 years in the U.S. Air Force. Until now, he has never had trouble finding work, he said.

He already has inquired about a job with DigitalGlobe, a Colorado-based satellite photography company opening an office in Wilkes-Barre, but was told jobs are not yet available locally.

Although he is discouraged at times, Wilk said he has no plans to stop looking.

"You have your bad days," he said. "You just want something to happen right then and there."

But "there's always a light at the end of the tunnel."

M. Paul Jackson, a Times Leader staff writer, may be reached at 829-7134.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Not Me
Why do you keep arguing with drunk people on a Saturday night? NTTAWWT.

I don't recall arguing with Hank or Shape Shifter. Why are you arguing with me? I've had my share of BV cab.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
I've had my share of BV cab.

I am glad to hear you aren't driving.

Thanks for the really, really, really long article that gave me a headache simply by scrolling past it. Perhaps tomorrow I will have enough energy to refute it point by point, as well as click on the link you sent me. For now, though, I am using all my energy trying to stay awake to see Al's dance moves.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Not Me
I am glad to hear you aren't driving.

Thanks for the really, really, really long article that gave me a headache simply by scrolling past it. Perhaps tomorrow I will have enough energy to refute it point by point, as well as click on the link you sent me. For now, though, I am using all my energy trying to stay awake to see Al's dance moves.

Who said anything about dancing?

And I admired Ty's really really really long blue thing. nttawwt.

[The Larry Davis Experience]

Originally posted by Not Me
The idea that large numbers of people get discouraged and drop out of the labor force is a myth created by people trying to explain numbers that don't add up. However, the real reason that the numbers don't add up is because the methods of collecting the numbers are flawed. But that they don't want to admit.

No one who needs to work to eat gets discouraged by low job prospects and then drops out of the labor market. On the contrary, they get hungry and take seasonal/part time/temp jobs as best they can and then when some asshole calls them about a survey to estimate the jobless situation they either aren't at home to answer the fucking phone or they are so hungry that they don't have the strength to pick up the receiver. Just a thought.

This conversation probably isn't going anywhere, esp if you won't read the article Ty posted and if you actually assume that employment numbers are inherently flawed. But, since the NFL games aren't on yet I might as well bore the Board with some lefty crap.

I think they key point at the outset of all this unemployment discussion was that Wall Street, not any critical poster, was disappointed with the jobs performance despite the incremental decrease in the unemployment rate.

I understand that some may want to complain that people seem to be looking for the gray cloud around the silver lining of the lowered unemployment number, but to me these raised expectations come directly from the admin itself, at least in part. After all, back when they were pushing for the most recent tax cut package the president's council of economic advisors projected that the package would result in an increase of 306,000 jobs per month starting in July of '03, for a total increase of 5.5 million jobs by Nov '04. We have not yet come close to that number in any month.

Aside from these projections I think analysts are also looking at the fact that at this point in the last business cycle the economy was generating 178,000 new jobs a month, and that was without a tax cut stimulus on the order of the tax cuts we have seen on a annual basis through the Bush admin. The comparable amount for the last 4 months of this recovery is 82,000.

I'm no economist, so I have no real argument to counter Not Me's assertion that these numbers are bunk. But I think they make the point that while there has been genuine good news on the GNP front for the admin of late the jobs picture is still much cloudier.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Not Me
Maybe it has something to do with the move to replace FDR with Reagan on the dime.

Incidentally, Nancy Reagan came out against this. She said that if a prior president is honored on a coin, it would be wrong to replace him. What a class act.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Incidentally, Nancy Reagan came out against this. She said that if a prior president is honored on a coin, it would be wrong to replace him. What a class act.

Yes -- and in more ways than one.

[Skeks in the city]

Originally posted by Not Me

The idea that large numbers of people get discouraged and drop out of the labor force is a myth created by people trying to explain numbers that don't add up.

There are discouraged workers (like, high school and college students that would work if they could, college students that would get a job rather than go to grad school if they could, and laid off workers that become full-time time students, retirees, criminals, or inmates). This is especially so in this recession. That's because in this recession a higher percentage of people have lost their jobs due to structural changes in the economy: in other words, a higher percentage of people's jobs are permanently eliminated, so a higher percentage is not counted as unemployed while they retool for a job requiring very different skills.

Of course, there are also underemployed workers that would trade-up or work more hours given the opportunity (like, laid off programmers driving a cab full-time or people working part-time or temp work while looking for a full-time job). Even if you consider the latter category underutilization rather than unemployment, it's still undesirable.

There are some problems with unemployment numbers, like official statistics tend to undercount job growth in small businesses. But you're overstating these problems, especially because if you really care you can compensate for some of this. Like if you care about job growth in small businesses, you could look at things like the confidence survey of National Federation of Independent Business.