Politics: A new beginning

[bilmore]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Why is this a sinking ship - I assume you are not taking the attitude that the DEMS can't fix it so it can't be fixed. Are you one who believes the initiative constraints don't allow enough room for solutions?

"Not enough room for solutions" defines boundaries that encompass "not enough room for solutions that the voters won't be near-permanently-enraged by". There is no Cal solution without huge pain for all - and that pain is going to be channeled onto some candidate, some day. Even if Arnie crafts a fix, I think he'll be hated at the end. Grudgingly admired, maybe, but hated, still.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Net result: dramatic decline in Republican legislative seats as conservative Dems beat moderate Republicans.

Wouldn't this occur only when those cast-off far-right Repubs have somewhere else to go? You have to lose them to someone else - they're not the type of voter who merely doesn't vote. Are you positing that McClintock eventually brings it all down?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by bilmore
Wouldn't this occur only when those cast-off far-right Repubs have somewhere else to go? You have to lose them to someone else - they're not the type of voter who merely doesn't vote. Are you positing that McClintock eventually brings it all down?

Voters can go where they want, they need candidates to vote for. And if you stop recruiting candidates from the right in conservative districts, the Dems will put up a candidate who looks an awful lot like yours (or perhaps who is even to the right of yours on key hot button issues, while staying more in the Democratic mainstream on, say, boring budget issues). That, at least, is what happened in Massachusetts.

It is always easier to work with a jerk in your own party than a jerk in theirs.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by bilmore
"Not enough room for solutions" defines boundaries that encompass "not enough room for solutions that the voters won't be near-permanently-enraged by". There is no Cal solution without huge pain for all - and that pain is going to be channeled onto some candidate, some day. Even if Arnie crafts a fix, I think he'll be hated at the end. Grudgingly admired, maybe, but hated, still.

I guess I just don't agree. Modest budget cuts plus an increase in tax revenues brought about by new business and a better economy (I realize these are assumptions) doesn't seem to amount to "huge pain" and certainly not enough to permanently hex the GOP forever.

PLF is not really retiring. He just wants attention.

Edited to say "whoa, wrong board."

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Does the rise of the Ahnuld mean that the entertainment industry is in ascendancy over Silicon Valley on public policy issues? Are we going to start seeing aid and comfort for RIAA and their brethern, much to the dismay of that marvelous jobs engine to the North than wants to sell all sorts of neat-o magic music makers and movie players?

Techies, come to Massachusetts. Start new companies in Massachusetts. This is the place where the future lies.

[Connect_the_Dots]

Originally posted by bilmore
"Not enough room for solutions" defines boundaries that encompass "not enough room for solutions that the voters won't be near-permanently-enraged by". There is no Cal solution without huge pain for all - and that pain is going to be channeled onto some candidate, some day. Even if Arnie crafts a fix, I think he'll be hated at the end. Grudgingly admired, maybe, but hated, still.

Couldn't agree more. The two solutions for California will be either a Fed bailout (which we don't have the money for, and which will be only a short term fix) or as the nuns in Catholic School will tell you "you need to work more and spend less". Fixing Davis' screw up will require some heavy duty fiscal austerity. Neither Davis, nor Bustamante had the competence or willingness to make that a reality. Davis lost the state billions and brought forth massive power outtages by not allowing retail electric rates to be raised, and Bustamante would have cost it further billions and gas lines not seen since the 1970s by making gas a utility and price-regulating within the state like he planned. Neither Davis nor Bustamente has ever held a real job outside of government. They can't think except within the government box, and refuse to accept that it was themselves and beaureaucratic thinking that transformed a budget shortfall into a crisis.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by Connect_the_Dots
Whinning about Davis and Bustamente

Time to stop whining and deliver, dude. Or are you, Bush-like, trying to build the case to blame the failure on someone else?

[Connect_the_Dots]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Time to stop whining and deliver, dude. Or are you, Bush-like, trying to build the case to blame the failure on someone else?

No, but I am just hoping that REST of the legislature figures out what a mess they are in and agrees to some tough across-the-board spending cuts, and they forget about trying to carve out money for their pet projects (I know, I know, I am a dreamer). I don't think Arnie is a genius or anything, but Davis KEPT increasing spending as the state got further and further into debt b/c he was afraid of losing votes in the next election. I think electing someone, anyone, for whom politics is a second career is a good start.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
So an important question for the Bilmores of the world (and fear for those of us on this side of sanity) is whether the new sitting Republican governor can remake the party in his image?

Presumably this would involve lots of weightlifting and plastic surgery.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Connect_the_Dots
Fixing Davis' screw up will require some heavy duty fiscal austerity.

Blaming Davis for all of the state's problems got us to where we are now.

Davis lost the state billions and brought forth massive power outtages by not allowing retail electric rates to be raised . . . .

Davis inherited a fucked-up deregulation plan -- it wasn't his doing. Don't get me wrong, he didn't make the situation any better, but between the original design of the plan and subsequent anticompetitive behavior in the market, he was left playing a pretty shitty hand.

Neither Davis nor Bustamente has ever held a real job outside of government.

Making them different from all the other gubernatorial candidates how?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Connect_the_Dots
Davis KEPT increasing spending as the state got further and further into debt b/c he was afraid of losing votes in the next election.

This is a nice little story, but it just isn't true.

[Connect_the_Dots]

Davis inherited a fucked-up deregulation plan -- it wasn't his doing. Don't get me wrong, he didn't make the situation any better, but between the original design of the plan and subsequent anticompetitive behavior in the market, he was left playing a pretty shitty hand.

Some he inheritted, but some were his own doing. The legislature bears the blame for the dimwitted "partial deregulation" plan and for California's rediculous environmental laws that effectively make natural gas plants the only thing that could be built in the state. He (and possibly his predecessor) bear the blame for not putting pressure on the state PUC to allow another natural gas pipeline to be built (part of the reason for the price spike is there was only conduit, which exascerbated the shortage). Davis bears the blame for not allowing costs to be passed onto consumers (which would have solved the demand problem) and for bringing in these Water and Sewer enigineers to enter into long-term contracts at high prices that were caused by what everyone acknowledged were short term phenomenom (hot summer, water shortage, natural gas shortage etc. combing for the perfect storm). State PUC hacks know about rate of return and recovering costs of capital, but they and their sliderulers were SERIOUSLY outmatched by energy traders with MBAs and financial calculators. WHy not pony up some money and hire JP Morgan or some IPE/NYMEX traders to be your designated hitter? You can't solve the problem if you refuse to acknowledge that you are way out your league.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Connect_the_Dots
Davis bears the blame for not allowing costs to be passed onto consumers (which would have solved the demand problem) ....

This was part of the deregulation plan -- retail prices were capped.

.... and for bringing in these Water and Sewer enigineers to enter into long-term contracts at high prices that were caused by what everyone acknowledged were short term phenomenom (hot summer, water shortage, natural gas shortage etc. combing for the perfect storm). State PUC hacks know about rate of return and recovering costs of capital, but they and their sliderulers were SERIOUSLY outmatched by energy traders with MBAs and financial calculators.

The thing is, everyone wanted the lights on. People here weren't complaining. The hot summer wouldn't have seemed like a short-term phenomena every evening at dusk.

If you can fault the guy on this one -- and you can -- it was for moving too cautiously before things got bad.

And the energy traders were also manipulating the market, as FERC determined. We Californians got screwed because the feds were asleep (or indifferent) at the switch.

[Replaced_Texan]

When last seen, the legislature was in one piece and in one state. The third Special Session convened on September 15, and the Dems had resigned themselves to fighting in court battles, not on the chamber floors. (There are rumors about a racial slur being hurled at some of the once-fled, but now returned Democrats, but that's a new story that I don't know much about.) As predicted, the Republicans easily rolled through the Democrats in both houses. Easy as pie, right? We’re done, we can go home and forget about all of this stuff until the next session in 2005.

Sure, after we get through the conference committees and figure out how to reconcile the two maps. See, the House version is the Rowe/Delay version. Good little Republicans doing what they're told. The Senate, they couldn't leave well enough alone, so they tweaked it a bit. No matter, we're all Republicans,we can meet behind closed doors, and settle this thing by the end of September.

See, there's a problem with District 17. Rowe/Delay/the House, don't like it very much because of Charlie Stenholm, who is a Democrat, so clearly it's a Democratic district and must be destroyed. Problem? Cornyn and Perry got 67% and 72% of the votes in the last statewide election in that district. Not exactly a compelling argument that the Democrats have a stronghold there. They just like Charlie Stenholm, probably because of his fierce protection of the district first and foremost, and because he's pretty high up in the Agriculture Committee, and brings a lot of pork. Anyhow, that particular district is huge, Midland/Odessa and Lubbock are in it, and the House plan would put Abeline (where the Republicans like their district just fine) with Lubbock, and have Midland be the epicenter of a nice, non-Stenholm, Republican District, which could be perfect for one of our President's former business partners to step into. Anyhow, that's just one of the fights that the Republicans are fighting among themselves over. The people in the Valley aren't happy about their district being cut in half. And Arlington, that bastion of libralism, will be split up so as to prevent people like Martin Frost, from being elected again.

Anyhow, this is all very well and good, and should be of no more than mild interest to those outside the Great State, except it has a bit of an impact on the national scene. See, once a redistricting bill is passed, it would not take effect until 90 days after Perry signs it. The Secretary of State's office then would need enough time to allow candidates to file for the races, print ballots and hold early voting. All of this means that if we didn't have a map out by Monday, then the primary election, originally scheduled for March 2, would have to be pushed back at least to March 9. This means that Texas wouldn't be part of Super-Tuesday, and the state could potentially have little or no impact on the democratic nominee. We didn't have a map signed by the governor on Monday.

DeLay came to Austin to help yesterday, despite the fact that he's not been elected to either House of the Texas Legislature, and, in fact, has a job in Washington. And the Democrats wrote an amicus brief in a Pennsylvania case that's heading to the Supreme Court.

Word on the street, though, is that the Republicans aren't too happy with the Governor's handling of the whole debacle, and that Senator Hutchinson is looking very closely at his job. Same word says that if she (or State Comptroller Carole Keeton Rylander) decides to run, she'll probably get the party's backing in the primaries. Which may mean that it's a good thing that the primary has been pushed back for Perry.

The lastest, i.e. as of maybe an hour ago, is that the Republicans have reached a tentative plan, and announcement may come out shortly. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst, another major player in this whole debacle also says that if the Justice Department doesn't approve of the map, they're probably not going to try and redistrict again.

R(hoping that her tags are correct)T