Objectively intelligent.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

We were never going to be able to contact trace adequately in a country this large. China was only able to do it because it's authoritarian and could control its population within the cities where the virus appeared.

Size of the country has nothing to do with it (and, indeed, China is actually larger than the US). Contact tracing becomes impossible when too many people get sick, and if you don't have good testing. The federal government prefers denial.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Size of the country has nothing to do with it (and, indeed, China is actually larger than the US). Contact tracing becomes impossible when too many people get sick, and if you don't have good testing. The federal government prefers denial.

Billions of dollars in federal funds earmarked for boosting nationwide Covid-19 testing remain unspent months after Congress made the money available, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

In April, Congress allocated roughly $25 billion for federal agencies and states to expand testing, develop contact-tracing initiatives and broaden disease surveillance.
According to HHS data, only about 10% to 15% of that total has been drawn down, meaning the cash has been spent or committed to various efforts…

Of the $25 billion, some $10.25 billion was sent to states and U.S. territories in May to expand testing and develop contact-tracing programs at their discretion, but as of Aug. 14, just $121 million of that pool of funds had been drawn down.

WSJ

Federal abdication.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Adder

How are we this far into this and still this unsophisticated in our thinking? You lock down to control community spread, then reopen with testing and contact tracing (ETA: I left out isolating those who may have been exposed) so that you have minimal continual spread. New Zealand and Australia are examples. They can't keep it out entirely, but they have tiny fraction of the cases of places like the US who have done next to nothing.

ETA: Nowhere is on a meaningful path to herd immunity, which we still don't know is even possible. This virus seems to fit in a spot where it's not transmissible enough to quickly spread through the population and not deadly enough to burn itself out. Dr. Osterholm has been suggesting that we may need to think about this as more like HIV than influenza (i.e., so transmissible that it peaks and then dies down because there are no more people to infect) for awhile. That means continuing efforts to manage the spread until there is a vaccine.

We missed out opportunity for that to mean mostly open with masks, temperature screens, testing, tracing and isolation, because we didn't take it seriously for month when we had the chance.

Ummm. Not all of us are. Just 57 percent of Rs.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

WSJ

Federal abdication.

Doesn't "sent to the States" mean the States have the money? Is it their fault and not the Feds? I'm not arguing your point, just not sure I get it.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Doesn't "sent to the States" mean the States have the money? Is it their fault and not the Feds? I'm not arguing your point, just not sure I get it.

The federal government dumped the problem on the states, and the states are not meeting the challenge. I suspect that there are different stories in different states about why that is, but to me the fundamental issue that the Trump administration did not want to and was incapable of leading a national response to the virus.

I worked in the federal government, under Republican and Democratic Presidents. Was my agency the most competent, swiftest organization in the world? No, but it was pretty good, and it was full of committed people who took their jobs seriously, and it was led by political appointees who were serious people who wanted to do a good job. I worked with state counterparts, who were invariably good people at much smaller, much less competent organizations with many fewer resources. I suspect the same is basically true with public health. If you have a big challenge and you need to mobilize resources for the nation to act, you use the federal government. Is there anything that states do better than the federal government?

eta: Fundamentally, temperamentally, Trump did not want to do the hard work of fighting a pandemic. He much preferred to dump the problem on someone else (initially Pence, for whom he was not doing a favor, and then the states), and to dole out resources, which let him favor his friends and disadvantage his enemies. It also let him suppress complaints from the states, who were afraid to say anything about what the federal government was doing lest they have PPE seized and not get respirators, etc. Trump does grievance, not solutions, and his heart was really in complaining about the Faucis of the world who wanted to close businesses and tell people to wear masks. What incentives does that create for everyone who works for him?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I didn't say I wasn't trying to surmount my handicap. I remain doggedly determined to do so by repeated consumption of various grades of wine. Someday, I have faith, I will overcome.

Well, if ever in Boston, I would be happy to share.

I got into wines early and put them away when the kids were young, and am now in the position where my cellar has more mature wines that I can reasonably try to drink. I was just starting to expand the entertaining enough to get control of the situation before the pandemic hit, I've actually cracked several bottles in the last few years I'd let age too far past their prime. But for the most part these days I'm opening 20-30 year old bottles of Bordeaux and its equivalent and 50 year bottles of port and sherry.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

ETA: Nowhere is on a meaningful path to herd immunity, which we still don't know is even possible. This virus seems to fit in a spot where it's not transmissible enough to quickly spread through the population and not deadly enough to burn itself out. Dr. Osterholm has been suggesting that we may need to think about this as more like HIV than influenza (i.e., so transmissible that it peaks and then dies down because there are no more people to infect) for awhile. That means continuing efforts to manage the spread until there is a vaccine.

We missed out opportunity for that to mean mostly open with masks, temperature screens, testing, tracing and isolation, because we didn't take it seriously for month when we had the chance.

You don’t know that herd immunity cannot be achieved. You’re using conjecture as fact. (I don’t know if it can be, but herd immunity to viruses is a proven thing, so it can happen, whereas the rarity of a virus not being susceptible to herd immunity is a novel and more likely improbable notion.)

On your second point, revisit my comment on geography. This virus hasn’t impacted my life except as to going to bars and restaurants and having to set up an educational pod for schooling. I’m living pretty much the same life, only now with a mask. If I lived in FL, or NYC a few months ago, it’d be different. But I don’t. And there are probably over a hundred million like me. This isn’t an apocalypse except for in certain geographic locales.

ETA: I feel bad for the locales that acquire it thru no fault (denser areas). I feel no sympathy for the people who think it’s “freedom” to run around without a mask.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

You don’t know that herd immunity cannot be achieved. You’re using conjecture as fact. (I don’t know if it can be, but herd immunity to viruses is a proven thing, so it can happen, whereas the rarity of a virus not being susceptible to herd immunity is a novel and more likely improbable notion.).

I thought Covid was just like the flu? Oh, it can be so hard to keep up with your optimism.

On your second point, revisit my comment on geography. This virus hasn’t impacted my life except as to going to bars and restaurants and having to set up an educational pod for schooling. I’m living pretty much the same life, only now with a mask. If I lived in FL, or NYC a few months ago, it’d be different. But I don’t. And there are probably over a hundred million like me. This isn’t an apocalypse.

What's happening with K-12 schools in your area?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Well, if ever in Boston, I would be happy to share.

I got into wines early and put them away when the kids were young, and am now in the position where my cellar has more mature wines that I can reasonably try to drink. I was just starting to expand the entertaining enough to get control of the situation before the pandemic hit, I've actually cracked several bottles in the last few years I'd let age too far past their prime. But for the most part these days I'm opening 20-30 year old bottles of Bordeaux and its equivalent and 50 year bottles of port and sherry.

If I’m ever able to leave this bloody Commonwealth again and travel there, I’ll take you up on that.

You have far more patience than I do. If I know I have good anything around, I’m compelled to sip it.

There is one style I liked very much. I went to a dinner where most of the pairings were with Barolos. That was quite tasty stuff.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I thought Covid was just like the flu? Oh, it can be so hard to keep up with your optimism.

What's happening with K-12 schools in your area?

We’re totally remote. The older teachers, understandably, refused to teach. Private schools are attempting to stay open, but it’s kind of a joke. Plexiglass dividers for each kid? Come on.

The colleges are the ones behaving awfully. They’re staying open just to steal some room and board money from parents. Scott Galloway was spot-on in his assessment of that con.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Is 'locked down to eliminate" realistic? Australia did a great job and was ready to reopen. Now Melbourne is under very strict lock-down. I just don't see an end that way.

As to reinfection, there are about 24 million cases so far Worldwide. If reinfection were going to be a real danger wouldn't there be no question by now, and thousands of reinfections?

Another two identified today

Again they seem to harp on the "No real antibodies" and "second time asymptomatic" shtick but there are other cases where the second bout was worse.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

If I’m ever able to leave this bloody Commonwealth again and travel there, I’ll take you up on that.

You have far more patience than I do. If I know I have good anything around, I’m compelled to sip it.

There is one style I liked very much. I went to a dinner where most of the pairings were with Barolos. That was quite tasty stuff.

If you like Barolas, try Amarones.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Another two identified today

Dude, you're a PI guy. i know you can do the math in your sleep. 25 million.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

If you like Barolas, try Amarones.

Both wonderful. I have a friend and client who is in to these, and was starting to get to know them better during the last couple of years of before-times.

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Adder

Nowhere is on a meaningful path to herd immunity.

How are you so sure? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...ing-2020-08-24