Politics: Where we struggle to kneel in the muck.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
Question for SocSec experts:

Conventional wisdom (which is about the sum of my SS knowledge) holds that SS is rapidly going bankrupt, in dire straits, etc.

Kevin Drum keeps saying it's actually in fine shape and just needs a little tweaking.

??

My understanding is that Social Security is relatively OK, but Medicare/caid is in dire straits.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
I like that everyone liked the Theresa joke, but, hey, it was hardly a critical point of the debate.

A female swing voter in Ohio might disagree with you.

FYI - Lynn Cheney is apparantly firing off about the comments about Mary.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
It looks like most of the polls that poll everyone are calling it a draw, maybe a slight edge to Kerry - which means that Kerry supporters liked Kerry, Bush supporters liked Bush. The CBS poll, which focuses only on undecideds, gives a solid Kerry win.

Or that Terry's email is working . ..

[Not Me]

Originally posted by bilmore
I just figured, she's there, she's rich, everybody knows about her, so there's no downside with that joke, and it came off well.

I think I remember you once saying that your wife made more money than you when you first met or first married.* Ask your wife if you made a joke like that in front of her friends or coworkers at the time in your life when she made more money than you, if it might bother her or if it she would not be bothered at all.

*This lead me to believe you have a big dick.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Not Me
The commentator asked GWB and JFK about the strong women they were both married to and asked them to comment. Kerrey stated that they both had married up in life and some would say that he had married up more so than others. I just thought it was tacky.

I just heard the replay on c-span. W had a good, funny response. Kerry responded in kind. Both seemed genuine and human.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
I just heard the replay on c-span. W had a good, funny response. Kerry responded in kind. Both seemed genuine and human.

I just was thinking of it in terms of how it makes Teresa look, not in terms of how it makes him look. It makes her look bad, IMHO.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Or that Terry's email is working . ..

Look, just because Slave chose to post McAuliffe's email, and Ty chose note to post the one he got from Ed Gillespie, is no reason to get snippy.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by bilmore
Does anyone else think that, with ten minutes of consideration, they could have come up with questions that might actually get some sparks going here?

This is fairly lame and boring. Maybe CBS is scared to death at this point to come across wrong.

Huh. I thought the moderator was from ABC.

Anyway, I didn't think the questions themselves were so bad. It's just that the candidates refused to answer the damn things, and the format prevented anyone from forcing them to do so.

My own impression is that it was a draw. Neither blew it in his performance, though overall I think that helps Kerry, as it doesn't really change the overall dynamic of the race.

• The Soprano line wasn't bad, and I'm just glad that Kerry finally chose to use something like that. I've been screaming at the TV for the last debate and a half that he can't just let go unanswered GWB's declarations that Kerry's not "credible" on fiscal policy. Veto a goddamn spending bill over the most recent 4 years, Mr. President, and maybe people will listen to you about credibility on fiscal policy. Until then, can you find no better response?
  
• "Freedom is a gift from God" will send every evangelical in America to the polls. I had no idea that they were all neocons, but whatever. (In some corners it will have people talking about a Crusade again, and that's one reason I wish he wouldn't say shit like this.) I don't care if it is a gift from God; it's tactically foolish to declare it so, and in any event GWB's tendency to wear his religiosity so publicly makes me uncomfortable.
  
• Points to Kerry on SocSec. Bush never did say where he'd get that Trillion Dollars while robbing the fund to give young workers Vegas money AND retirees full benefits.
  
• Points to Bush on The Court (dammit). Kerry should've hit harder on Bush's studied ambivalence, and instead Kerry got painted as the only one with a litmus test.
  
• "The borders are safer now then when I was govenor of Texas" was my favorite unintentionally funny line.
  
• Kerry's bit about marrying up was OK (and I note with some surprise NotMe's sympathies for THK after essentially yelling for months that the woman's just a rich cunt), though I think it was borderline clunky. Bush's line was better, though, FWIW.

Gattigap

[Diane_Keaton]

Originally posted by Not Me
I think I remember you once saying that your wife made more money than you when you first met or first married.* *This leads me to believe you have a big dick.

Hmmn. He ALSO said his wife was hotter than him, too. So it's probably safe to say it's quite substantial but who knows how big. How, Bilmore, How???

[Say_hello_for_me]

Originally posted by Gattigap
[*]"Freedom is a gift from God" will send every evangelical in America to the polls. I had no idea that they were all neocons, but whatever. (In some corners it will have people talking about a Crusade again, and that's one reason I wish he wouldn't say shit like this.) I don't care if it is a gift from God; it's tactically foolish to declare it so, and in any event GWB's tendency to wear his religiosity so publicly makes me uncomfortable.
Gattigap

Yeah, and the response that everything is a gift from God? I don't think that resonates with anyone who has had bad shit happen in their life.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
Yeah, and the response that everything is a gift from God? I don't think that resonates with anyone who has had bad shit happen in their life.

Not with these demographics:

"According to a Gallup opinion survey, nearly all Americans, 98% of them, do, (believe in God), compared to 84% in Switzerland, 73% in France and 60% in Sweden. Americans also tend to believe in life after death: 73% compared to 50% in Switzerland and only 38% in Great Britain. About 60% of Americans are members of a church, synagogue or other religious group, though many more identify with various religions because of their birth or upbringing. About 40% of Americans attend religious services regularly, compared to only 20% in Great Britain. "

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Diane_Keaton
Hmmn. He ALSO said his wife was hotter than him, too. So it's probably safe to say it's quite substantial but who knows how big. How, Bilmore, How???

She's always had bad judgment.

[Secret_Agent_Man]

Originally posted by Not Me
FYI - Lynn Cheney is apparantly firing off about the comments about Mary.

All Kerry said -- in his rebuttal on a question to the President about whether he believed homosexuality is a choice -- was that if the President had any doubts, he could ask Mary Cheney, or any number of gay people Kerry has met who have struggled with the issue of sexual identity -- and they would tell him that there is no choice. That they are just being how God made them.

I don't see that mention as being a cheap shot or a negative comment -- and I think that only people who abhor homosexuality and homosexuals would see it that way.

I suppose Lynn can complain about her daughter being mentioned as part of this political argument, but Mary is openly gay and is part of the B/C campaign staff, and they are all aligned with a President who has tried to make "gay marriage" a constitutional issue.

Lynn is a harpy, and has always seemed to me to be embarassed by her daughter's sexuality (to the extent she has discussed it publicly -- I may be projecting somewhat from her politics generally). As I recall, during the 2000 campaign she initially denied to reporters that Mary was gay. So, in sum, I don't give much credence to anything Lynn says on this point.

S_A_M

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
The CBS poll of undecided is calling it for Kerry, 39% to 25% (rest scoring it a draw).

Thats a win? It was a draw.

Bush NAILED those great bits on his faith and the family stuff. There were tears and prayer circles galore in Rubeland.

Kerry looked more composed throughout, but he veered into almost seeming to sure of himself. Kerry actually does better when he stammers a bit - makes him seem human. His closing sucked. It was robotic and sounded like h'd clipped it right out of Profiles in Courage. Camelot, John, closed in 1968.

Bush seemed nervous at first, but he really found his voice after the first 20 minutes. He screwed up factual references all over the place, but thats of no moment. All he had to do was cite numbers to make it look like he had a command of facts - the average American had no idea what those numbers meant anyway.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by bilmore
Question for SocSec experts:

Conventional wisdom (which is about the sum of my SS knowledge) holds that SS is rapidly going bankrupt, in dire straits, etc.

Kevin Drum keeps saying it's actually in fine shape and just needs a little tweaking.

??

Social Security has a timing issue. It has never been a completely pay as you go system - reserves are built up in years with relatively low payouts to be used in years with relatively high payouts. Payouts are ramping up, and one problem with the reserve is that we've been effectively "raiding" it to cover the rest of the budget deficits; the surplus has been effectively lent to the general budget without an adequate return. Because we moved into the surplus category during the Clinton administration, the problem was getting better; indeed, there were projections that showed it being taken care of given fiscal disclipline. Those projections have been shot to hell. Whether the reserve is adequate if you get a good return on it is a different question, and viewpoints differ and there are key assumptions that can have a big impact (if everyone lives 5 years longer, there's a big impact). The reserve may not be adequate. One approach if the reserve is not adequate is to have Social Security go into debt, effectively spreading some additional cost of the baby boomers' retirement over the baby boomers' kids' and grandkids' working life instead of what we're doing now, which is having the baby booomers put down a bit of a prepayment on their own retirement. It's not an unreasonable approach to use in part, but it leaves us open to real problems with future baby booms.

Medicare/Medicaid is a very different issue, since the math when you add radically increasing medical costs works very differently.