Politics: Where we struggle to kneel in the muck.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
I don't see that mention as being a cheap shot or a negative comment -- and I think that only people who abhor homosexuality and homosexuals would see it that way.

Yeah, Kerry mentioned it as praise for Cheney.

Geez, S, get real. The only reason Kerry and Edwards keep bringing it up is because they know that part of W's base doesn't approve. Sleazy use of the kids.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Thats a win? It was a draw.

39-25 in the undecided is a huge win. Assume there is a 2 point or less spread in several key states (true) with 10 undecided (actually a low figure - undecided are higher in battlegrounds). if the undecideds split by that ratio, Kerry gets more than 2 points and wins those states.

Add to that the momentum factor, especially since it is now clear that Bush couldn't win a single debate (at best he's scored 2 draws and a loss, at worst 3 losses) and its a clear win unless Bush can find some clever spin and kill or reverse the momentum.

As I've said before, Bush has to start explaining why people should vote for him instead of why people should vote against Kerry -- votes against are more often cast against incumbents than challengers.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Kerry made a HUGE mistake last night when he said "Globalization can't be cured by me or anyone else elected President. I tell workers I can't stop outsourcing."

The only chance Kerry has in Ohio, which he needs, is to get people who've lost jobs and fear losing jobs to vote for him. Admitting neither he nor Bush can fix that issue leaves him with nothing to sell. Ohio is conservative. If Kerry's got no job plan for them, they'll vote for the social conservative. He should have pandered to the protectionists in Ohio and elsewhere. Leave Bush to make the academic rebuttal about how we can't be protectionist in a global economy to a bunch of manufacturing worrkers.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
It's a boring as hell debate, partially because all of this territory has already been covered.

Not that the candidates would ever agree to it, but they need Russert to moderate, and to break out of the format. Keep asking the follow-up until they give an answer or it's completely clear they're waffling.

Lincoln-Douglas is of a bygone era, though.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

After the debate, a Gallup poll showed Kerry to be the winner 52% to 39%, not far from expectations. A CBS poll of uncommitted voters after the debate showed that 39% thought Kerry had won and 25% thought Bush had won. An ABC News poll showed Kerry barely won, 42% to 41%. However, the ABC poll had 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats, so breaking even in a group skewed towards the GOP has to be considered a Kerry win. ARG didn't run a large-scale poll this time. Still, the clear conclusions: Kerry won the first and third debates; the second one was a tie. Cheney did better than his boss and won the VP debate.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by sgtclub
It's "idea" not "idear"

Not where it matters to Kerry, it's not.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
39-25 in the undecided is a huge win. Assume there is a 2 point or less spread in several key states (true) with 10 undecided (actually a low figure - undecided are higher in battlegrounds). if the undecideds split by that ratio, Kerry gets more than 2 points and wins those states.

Add to that the momentum factor, especially since it is now clear that Bush couldn't win a single debate (at best he's scored 2 draws and a loss, at worst 3 losses) and its a clear win unless Bush can find some clever spin and kill or reverse the momentum.

As I've said before, Bush has to start explaining why people should vote for him instead of why people should vote against Kerry -- votes against are more often cast against incumbents than challengers.

Kerry needed to beat Bush badly last nite. He didn't.

This isn't boxing or a playoff series. People vote like juries. They recall the first thing they saw (Bush making an idiot of himself in the first debate) and the last thing they saw (Bush nailing the base with some great shtick about faith and God and family and security in the last debate). Put those two performance together and you get a wash, which brings the race to where it was pre-debates - Kerry close, but not close enough.

Florida and Ohio. Thats where this thing is at. PA will go Dem, even if the actual votes come in otherwise. Y'all don't think Eddie's machine is going to let the okies put this state in the red column, do you?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Not that the candidates would ever agree to it, but they need Russert to moderate, and to break out of the format. Keep asking the follow-up until they give an answer or it's completely clear they're waffling.

You will sooner see Bush and bin Laden shaking hands at an armistice.

If you made politicians actually answer questions, nobody would be left in Washington, and people would lose all faith in Democracy. The lie that the system is fair and that it attracts decent intelligent people is one we ought to maintain for the sake of the republic.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
The Tony Soprano line plays well.

You think so? I thought that was stupid. Clearly someone worked all week on that and it landed with a dud. Like he was trying too hard.

Then again, held up against Bush's quip on "leading news organizations," he looked like Richard fucking Pryor.

TM

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by bilmore
Question for SocSec experts:

Conventional wisdom (which is about the sum of my SS knowledge) holds that SS is rapidly going bankrupt, in dire straits, etc.

Kevin Drum keeps saying it's actually in fine shape and just needs a little tweaking.

??

It's currently in surplus, and continuing to build that surplus while the baby boomers continue to work. Current projections have that surplus starting to diminish in about 2018, about when boomers start retiring. Sometime in 2038 (or maybe later), the surplus is projected to be depleted. After that, it will need outside money to support it.

So, depending on what constitutes a "tweak" one could probably postpone the inevitable. Tweaks include: delayed retirement ages, reducing benefits, or increasing payroll taxes (rates or current cap at ~$90k)

Of course, none of this acknowledges that the social security "surplus" is fictional, as it's been spent and the surplus nominally used to reduce the deficit/debt. The real debt is actual several trillion higher, because the government owes the social security trust fund a bunch of money as well.

[dtb]

Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
I don't see that mention as being a cheap shot or a negative comment -- and I think that only people who abhor homosexuality and homosexuals would see it that way.

Lynn is a harpy, and has always seemed to me to be embarassed by her daughter's sexuality (to the extent she has discussed it publicly -- I may be projecting somewhat from her politics generally). As I recall, during the 2000 campaign she initially denied to reporters that Mary was gay. So, in sum, I don't give much credence to anything Lynn says on this point.

2 (especially the first paragraph).

What's the big deal? Cheney's daughter's being gay was mentioned during the VP debate as well.

What hasn't been mentioned is the titillating novel written by Lynn herself called "Sisters" -- whoo-ee -- that's quite a read.

[mmm3587]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Not where it matters to Kerry, it's not.

You should listen more closely. He said an "R" word right after idea. I think it was "Republicans." And I can't believe that you're critiquing *Kerry* for pronunciation of words.

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by Sidd Finch
Not quite the caliber of your "voices in your head" post on FB. I give it 3.5 stars.

Diane's not worth nearly the effort that fringey was.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
You think so? I thought that was stupid. Clearly someone worked all week on that and it landed with a dud. Like he was trying too hard.

Then again, held up against Bush's quip on "leading news organizations," he looked like Richard fucking Pryor.

TM

The Bush quip was potentially funnier, but it required some deft delivery; not our boy's strong point. It wasn't appropriate for a Presidential debate either.

The Tony Soprano line was stupid. People like Tony Soprano, and if he were in charge it would be safer, except for those in competition with him. Gotti neighborhood was very very safe, unless you hit a Gotti kid. When my wife first started thinking about marrying an Itie she was hoping I'd be connected so people couldn't fuck with us.

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Speaking of "what's the point":

• Dear Mr. Slave:
  
  We need your help one last time. So far the debates have been two clear wins for John Kerry. And your actions after the debate have been absolutely crucial in keeping the Republican spin machine in check.
  
  Tonight is the final debate between John Kerry and George W. Bush, the one where the post-debate spin will solidify and last until Election Day. If you have not taken action before, now is the time to do it!
  
  There are four critical things you can do to help beat the Republican spin machine after tonight's final debate.
  
  1. Forward this email to family, coworkers, and friends.
  2. Vote in online polls.
  3. Write a letter to the editor.
  4. Call radio and television stations.
  
  *** Vote in Online Polls ***
  
  National and local news organizations will be conducting online polls during and after the debate asking for readers' opinions. Look for online polls at these news websites, and make sure to vote in every one of them:
  
  CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/
  CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
  Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/
  MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
  Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/
  Akron Beacon-Journal: http://www.ohio.com/
  Atlanta Journal-Constitution: http://www.ajc.com/
  Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/
  Los Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/
  Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune: http://www.startribune.com/
  Orlando Sentinel: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/
  Philadelphia Inquirer: http://www.philly.com/
  South Florida Sun-Sentinel: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
  
  And be sure to check the websites of your local newspapers and TV stations for online polls. It is crucial that you do this in the minutes immediately following the debate...
  
  Thank you,
  Terry McAuliffe
  Chairman
  
  PS: Make sure to forward this email to at least 10 other people who will be watching the debate. Also, print out copies for your friends, family members, coworkers and neighbors and get them involved.

I think the idea was to send the actual email to 10 people individually. You're posting it on a message board is a whole new twist. I think you should share this innovation with Mr. McAuliffe (giving equal credit to RT, of course).

I realize RT did it first. But I think it would mean so much more coming from you, Slave.