Politics: A new beginning

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by bilmore
I can't see this affecting the level or longevity of fighting much at all.

Where it will matter will be the embracing, by many Iraqis who maybe weren't sold yet, of the US's role there. After the infamous bugout of GWI, (yes, yes, we'll support you, go get him!, oh, well, we gotta go now . . . ) I suspect that a postwar Iraq with a viable Saddam wandering about was not the safest-feeling place in the world to be openly advocating for democracy. Maybe this will loosen up those who were still afraid (with justification) that we'd just bug out again.

Like Bilmore, I suspect Saddam's capture makes it much easier for the post-war Iraqi political constellation to emerge.

Unlike Bilmore, I am not expecting that political constellation to be naturally democratic, without an awful lot of pressure and intervention from the US and Britain. So one unintended beneficiary of Saddam's capture will be the religious conservatives (who, of course, were one of the groups he heavily repressed). And those are exactly the sort of political hot potatoes that Bush will need to deal with in the coming months.

[Not Me]

I heard a news report that the guys who captured SH were getting ready to throw a grenade in the hole, because that is standard procedure. But then up popped SH. So it apparently was a pretty close call for SH

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Unlike Bilmore, I am not expecting that political constellation to be naturally democratic, without an awful lot of pressure and intervention from the US and Britain. So one unintended beneficiary of Saddam's capture will be the religious conservatives (who, of course, were one of the groups he heavily repressed). And those are exactly the sort of political hot potatoes that Bush will need to deal with in the coming months.

Yep, I agree. But, weren't there polls a bit ago detailing that the mass of Iraqis want a government disconnected with religion? That they specifically do NOT want the Islamic government?

So, maybe it won't be THAT hard . . .

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Not Me
I heard a news report that the guys who captured SH were getting ready to throw a grenade in the hole, because that is standard procedure. But then up popped SH. So it apparently was a pretty close call for SH

It is also being reported that he said "I am SH, don't shoot let's negotiate," to which the troop said "President Bush sends his regards." Classic, right out of a movie.

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally posted by sgtclub
It is also being reported that he said "I am SH, don't shoot let's negotiate," to which the troop said "President Bush sends his regards." Classic, right out of a movie.

What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

[Secret_Agent_Man]

Originally posted by bilmore
I can't see this affecting the level or longevity of fighting much at all.

Where it will matter will be the embracing, by many Iraqis who maybe weren't sold yet, of the US's role there. After the infamous bugout of GWI, (yes, yes, we'll support you, go get him!, oh, well, we gotta go now . . . ) I suspect that a postwar Iraq with a viable Saddam wandering about was not the safest-feeling place in the world to be openly advocating for democracy. Maybe this will loosen up those who were still afraid (with justification) that we'd just bug out again.

I think that's right, except that the embrace from many Iraqis who formerly kept their heads down may well help us conclude the hostilities sooner. The Baathists use to be good at revolution -- we'll see if 30 years in power has changed that. Many people in many areas of Iraq are still keeping quiet and refraining from comment on the capture (or public celebration) due to fear of the underground. (This obviously doesn't apply much in the Shia areas.) Hopefully, that will change over the next year. I think that the capture of Hussein was critical in the hearts and minds effort.

Club: Yes, I realize that this probably enhances Bush's chances in 2004 -- and that saddens me a little bit -- but not enough to detract from the huge positives. I have to say, though, that I fear what Bush might do in domestic policy if the resources and focus of his administration are no longer consumed by "The WAr on Terror" in his second term.

S_A_M

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

Whatever. I'm glad it was this particular troop and not you that found him. You would have actually taken him up on his offer to negotiate.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by Not Me
I heard a news report that the guys who captured SH were getting ready to throw a grenade in the hole, because that is standard procedure. But then up popped SH. So it apparently was a pretty close call for SH

Yes, those were the reports. I'm surprised that if it's SOP, we haven't yet heard the headline: "5 soldiers lose nuts after detonating grenade in supposed Hussein bunker." Or 10 soldiers die in bunker cave-in after detonating grenade."

But maybe the styrofoam and sand is enough to protect against such things.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

What, "we'll leave it to the UN to consider negotiations" would have been a better response? It is the US Army who found him, not a bounty hunter.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

It's all abstract, isn't it?

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

It's personal between the (right thinking) people of the US and SH. The rest of the world can get over it. It is over and done with. We won. Time for France and Germany to move on.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally posted by bilmore
I don't think we want to do that to our relations with Paraguay.

(The discussion threads at democraticunderground.com )

I'm so disappointed. I was hoping that you were talking about Ducks Unlimited.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
What a great way to tell the world that it's nothing personal.

Good point! If they has a pat speech authorized, that proves Bush was just waiting for the politically correct time to bring him in. Mind if I post this one at the DU?

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
I'm so disappointed. I was hoping that you were talking about Ducks Unlimited.

No, sorry, their Saddam discussions were likely more centered on the steel v. lead issue.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
No, sorry, their Saddam discussions were likely more centered on the steel v. lead issue.

No kidding. Saddam was pretty rough on Iraqi wetlands.