Objectively intelligent.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Do the 4th grade math sunshine. At the current mortality rate of infected people, 2.77% if we need to get to 60% of the pop for her immunity, we are looking at 5 million dead.

didn’t CDC say that they estimate only 10% of the infected are tested? So your math now goes to 500k dead. Except mortality rates are dropping with better knowledge of the disease.

And I ain’t trying to argue with you, but it seems clear we are forging on, smart or not.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

didn’t CDC say that they estimate only 10% of the infected are tested? So your math now goes to 500k dead. Except mortality rates are dropping with better knowledge of the disease.

And I ain’t trying to argue with you, but it seems clear we are forging on, smart or not.

So you think the CDC got the mortality rate wrong by a factor of 10 and didn't notice?

eta: Also, the country is already well above 200K fatalities. You think the downside is only roughly twice what we've seen? I barely know anyone who has been sick.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

1 We are ahead of them. Like it or not, we are going for herd immunity, if there is such a thing.

2 Dunno what the other countries hope for, but they can't wall off their borders for long. What do you think Europe's tourism industry is looking like with no Americans? How long can that go on?

3 And what is the alternative? There is not going to be a vaccine anytime soon. My state was on pretty strict lock down. It flattened the curve, delayed shit, but shit is hitting now. In fact most of the country is seeing way higher rates than they were a few weeks ago www.covidactnow.org

The question isn't what's the alternative. There is no reason to believe herd immunity is even possible. Everyone has had a cold. No herd immunity there. Small pox ravaged humanity for literal millenia, no herd immunity until there was inoculation/vaccination. This thing does not appear to be virulent enough to spread fast enough for herd immunity to be at all realistic (i.e., we're 10 months in and nowhere is approaching the minimum infection levels required).

We'll get herd immunity when we get a vaccine. The option until then is to continue to try to control the spread.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Adder

The question isn't what's the alternative. There is no reason to believe herd immunity is even possible. Everyone has had a cold. No herd immunity there. Small pox ravaged humanity for literal millenia, no herd immunity until there was inoculation/vaccination. This thing does not appear to be virulent enough to spread fast enough for herd immunity to be at all realistic (i.e., we're 10 months in and nowhere is approaching the minimum infection levels required).

We'll get herd immunity when we get a vaccine. The option until then is to continue to try to control the spread.

Again, I’m not saying we should be doing what we’re doing, I’m saying this is what the country is doing. I heard they broke up a wedding in NYS that had 10,000 people? And NYS is one of the few states still doing well.

I don’t know if there can be herd immunity or where we are on the path, I’m saying it is the only “positive” outcome possible, because most people are not behaving in a way that it can be controlled.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Again, I’m not saying we should be doing what we’re doing, I’m saying this is what the country is doing. I heard they broke up a wedding in NYS that had 10,000 people? And NYS is one of the few states still doing well.

I don’t know if there can be herd immunity or where we are on the path, I’m saying it is the only “positive” outcome possible, because most people are not behaving in a way that it can be controlled.

Yup. Those of us lucky enough to be able to protect ourselves are going to be “fine” (not infected but isolated) while everyone else gets sick or worse.

That said there are men in my basement doing sewer maintenance so maybe I’m getting infected right now.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

1 We are ahead of them. Like it or not, we are going for herd immunity, if there is such a thing.

2 Dunno what the other countries hope for, but they can't wall off their borders for long. What do you think Europe's tourism industry is looking like with no Americans? How long can that go on?

3 And what is the alternative? There is not going to be a vaccine anytime soon. My state was on pretty strict lock down. It flattened the curve, delayed shit, but shit is hitting now. In fact most of the country is seeing way higher rates than they were a few weeks ago www.covidactnow.org

I find this wearing a mask thing to be working out quite well so far. Just sayin.’

And I like holding things outside. Where it was once going to indoor parties, now everything is done with tents and heating lamps. It’s like being on ski holiday. Jeans and pullovers instead of formal indoor attire. What’s not to like?

You see lemons. I see limoncello.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Yup. Those of us lucky enough to be able to protect ourselves are going to be “fine” (not infected but isolated) while everyone else gets sick or worse.

That said there are men in my basement doing sewer maintenance so maybe I’m getting infected right now.

I’ve been walking thru stores every day since this started. I’ve been to god knows how many social distanced parties. I pick up take out all the time. The only thing I don’t do is go to bars and restaurants and gyms.

Wear. A. Mask. And distance. You mathematically limit your chances enormously by doing those simple things. Ain’t fucking rocket science. And if you still get it? Well, you did all you could. You’ll get improving therapies and most likely be fine.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

The question isn't what's the alternative. There is no reason to believe herd immunity is even possible. Everyone has had a cold. No herd immunity there. Small pox ravaged humanity for literal millenia, no herd immunity until there was inoculation/vaccination. This thing does not appear to be virulent enough to spread fast enough for herd immunity to be at all realistic (i.e., we're 10 months in and nowhere is approaching the minimum infection levels required).

We'll get herd immunity when we get a vaccine. The option until then is to continue to try to control the spread.

Here’s an alternative: Live your life.

That’s what people are increasingly deciding to do. And if you do it cautiously, you can do about 80% of what you did pre-Covid.

Risk is unavoidable unless you’d prefer to be a hermit. I think I’ll be careful and diligent, but I’ll accept some risk. That was the option I chose at the outset and I’ve not deviated (even when I got sick as fuck with something a few weeks back, I’d no regrets).

If one refuses masks and acts recklessly, he’ll have regrets. He’s a fool. But if you do all you can, well... you’ve done all you can.

Can’t stay home and hidden forever.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Do the 4th grade math sunshine. At the current mortality rate of infected people, 2.77% if we need to get to 60% of the pop for her immunity, we are looking at 5 million dead.

Safety over money, honey.
That's because you can't just reopen to get your hair did.

If you reopen, try herd immunity, a lot of people will die, you'll shutter and have to enter aother lockdown anyway. https://www.businessinsider.com/swed...rce=reddit.com

Safety over money? Tell that to the people who can’t work from home.

We’re going to muddle thru. And comparisons to places like SK are silly. They’d had to deal with SARS and so had an infrastructure in place to address a pandemic. They’re also more easily controlled and homogenous societies of significantly smaller landmass.

People want to blame. Okay. There’s a good bit of it to go around, but if we’re being honest, those of us doing it the most are really doing so because it gives us a sense of control, and a way to vent.

And a lot of those most paranoid about getting it and insistent we all lockdown most aggressively are people I suspect haven’t lived a hell of a lot. They’re more interested in death avoidance than quality of life. A bit neurotic. If at 50 you feel like if this gets you, you’ll miss a lot, I suspect you’ve not done a lot.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

So you think the CDC got the mortality rate wrong by a factor of 10 and didn't notice?

Don't make yourself look dumb. That mortality rate comes from confirmed cases and deaths. No adjustment for the uncounted. About 8.2M confirmed positives and 220,000 deaths. to get to 2.7% mortality there is no adjustment. MATH IS HARD! But it ain't that hard.

https://www.google.com/search?source...4dUDCAg&uact=5

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Don't make yourself look dumb. That mortality rate comes from confirmed cases and deaths. No adjustment for the uncounted. About 8.2M confirmed positives and 220,000 deaths. to get to 2.7% mortality there is no adjustment. MATH IS HARD! But it ain't that hard.

https://www.google.com/search?source...4dUDCAg&uact=5

One possibility is that I didn't know any of that and needed to have it explained to me.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

One possibility is that I didn't know any of that and needed to have it explained to me.

Admit your ignorance, good first step. But more important is to accept the ignorance, and quit back sassing your betters?

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Safety over money? Tell that to the people who can’t work from home.

That's the reason for the safety. That's the reason you limit occupancy, mandate masks.

We’re going to muddle thru. And comparisons to places like SK are silly. They’d had to deal with SARS and so had an infrastructure in place to address a pandemic. They’re also more easily controlled and homogenous societies of significantly smaller landmass.

How about that China?

People want to blame. Okay. There’s a good bit of it to go around, but if we’re being honest, those of us doing it the most are really doing so because it gives us a sense of control, and a way to vent.

And a lot of those most paranoid about getting it and insistent we all lockdown most aggressively are people I suspect haven’t lived a hell of a lot. They’re more interested in death avoidance than quality of life. A bit neurotic. If at 50 you feel like if this gets you, you’ll miss a lot, I suspect you’ve not done a lot.

Not really. People who take a realistic look at the disease, how easily it spreads, how you can prevent it, how it's different from other colds are the ones who say, you don't want to get this shit, you dont want to spread this shit. It isn't control because it makes you feel better. It's control because known methods mitigate risks. You buckle your seat belt because it helps. Not becaause of fear doctor.

[Icky Thump]

Deleted

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Here’s an alternative: Live your life.

That’s what people are increasingly deciding to do. And if you do it cautiously, you can do about 80% of what you did pre-Covid.

Risk is unavoidable unless you’d prefer to be a hermit. I think I’ll be careful and diligent, but I’ll accept some risk. That was the option I chose at the outset and I’ve not deviated (even when I got sick as fuck with something a few weeks back, I’d no regrets).

If one refuses masks and acts recklessly, he’ll have regrets. He’s a fool. But if you do all you can, well... you’ve done all you can.

Can’t stay home and hidden forever.

Please let me know where to send flowers in your memory.