Politics: Onward from New Hampshire

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Gattigap
What matters is that the terrorist numbnuts successfully disrupted national elections in a western state, and that they likely think that's cool, and will try to do elsewhere if they can. It'll probably be easiest to do in Europe, which is the soft underbelly of the West. (So one might want to postpone that house rental in Tuscany that's coming up next month.)

Yep.

Originally posted by Gattigap
I doubt that Terror Numbnuts Inc. spends much time calculating the precise political effect of their actions because these things could go either way -- or if they do so, that they're probably bad at predicting the result.

I think that they do spend time but aren't necessarily right in their predictions. I do think they hit the nail on the head with Spain.

Originally posted by Gattigap
(For example, after all, OBL apparently thought that 9/11 would send us into Afghanistan, where we'd get bogged down and pull out, which was an enormous miscalculation.)

I don't think that is what OBL thought. I think he thought that 9/11 would galvanize islamic terrorists. I don't think he thought the US would invade Afghanistan. Afterall, 9/11 was planned when Clinton was in the white house and if they were making predictions, it was probably that Gore would be in power when the attack occurred. I don't think anyone thought that Gore would invade Afghanistan.

Originally posted by Gattigap
Instead, it's likely that Terror Numbnuts Inc. will simply think that such actions will stir up trouble and instability, which in a general sense would further their goals.

I think that is one of their goals, but not their only goal and I think they do work through the potential political and economic outcomes of their terrorism. I think if you think they are too unsophisticated in their thinking to do that, you are undersestimating your enemy.

[Secret_Agent_Man]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Whitehouse suspects Kerry making up support of foreign leaders

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...229EST0556.DTL

Hmmm. I wonder if those are the same WH aides who Speaker Hastert says he doesn't deal with any more because they kept lying to him about "the numbers" [on some bill I don't remember but which Ty linked to the interview]?

Or, are they the same aides who had CMS threaten to fire the Medicare analyst if he responded accurately to Congress' request for updted figures on the likely costs of the Presddent's prescription drug package?

Maybe so. After all, it takes one to know one.

Change the tone in Washington, my foot.

S_A_M

[ETA -- Ok. That probably wasn't McClellan, Powell, or Cheney.

Look, it was a stupid thing for Kerry to say -- on balance won't help him to say it even if true. However, its kind of nuts to think that many world leaders don't feel that way. After all, as you GOPer's proudly note: Bush has made a specialty of telling other nations to climb on board or get out of the way, and by the way FU if you disagree.

By the by, there was an interesting piece in the Economist last week to the effect that Blair (for at least domestic political reasons) is likely hoping quietly for a Kerry victory -- although he is a loyal enough soul never to have criticized Bush even privately. And that many British government officials are hoping less quietly, but No. 10 Downing Street (for obvious reasons) put out a strict edict forbidding any comment by any government official on the American Presidential elections.]

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
It was a victory, even accepting Ty's question of whether AQ wants the socialists in, because AQ caused a reversal in the election.
Terrorism is about scaring government into doing what the terrorists want. The Socialists know they are in power because of the bombing, they know they should try and not do things that make AQ mad.
Ty, are you just being argumentative? this is obvious.

It's hardly obvious. Think about what Al Qaeda is after. They want to re-establish the Caliphate. Iraq and Palestine are just issues they're using to polarize and recruit. Terrorists often use to violence to try to get governments to respond in ways that alienate people, because it de-stabilizes moderate forces and helps them recruit. None of you can explain why Al Qaeda should be happy that the Socialists were elected. They'd probably be better off with the Spanish people rallying around Aznar and sending more troops to Iraq.

[The Larry Davis Experience]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
It was a victory, even accepting Ty's question of whether AQ wants the socialists in, because AQ caused a reversal in the election.
Terrorism is about scaring government into doing what the terrorists want. The Socialists know they are in power because of the bombing, they know they should try and not do things that make AQ mad.
Ty, are you just being argumentative? this is obvious.

Well, I for one am not just being argumentative. So what is your point? That the Socialists, having won the election based on (in some people's view) their opposition to the country's support of the US in Iraq, will then pursue a set of policies designed to....what, exactly? Tax breaks for terrorists? Calling off the dogs on police investigations of Muslim extremists in Spain?

Sorry, but you can't convince me that these folks are stupid enough to react to a major national tragedy by saying "OK, hands off the people that did it because that was why we won the election." Judging from the widespread accusations of pussyhood, I may be alone in thinking that.

Our disagreement may hinge on the fact that I don't assume that countries who opposed the US in invading Iraq did so because they didn't want to make AQ mad.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
It's hardly obvious. Think about what Al Qaeda is after. They want to re-establish the Caliphate. Iraq and Palestine are just issues they're using to polarize and recruit.

If they want to reestablish the Caliphate, I would think part of the plan would include regaining control of Iraq and Israel. I don't think Iraq and Israel are peripheral to their goal if their goal is to reestablish the Caliphate.

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
None of you can explain why Al Qaeda should be happy that the Socialists were elected.

Because it energizes their base that they were able to influence an election like that. An energized base is more likely to lead to more recruits for their organization, which means more power for them and in their minds gives them a better chance of achieving their goals.

Right now, even moderate muslims are happy about what has happened in Spain. They feel the muslims have bitch slapped the West. AQ has been elevated a notch in the Arab street.

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
They'd probably be better off with the Spanish people rallying around Aznar and sending more troops to Iraq.

Umm, huh?

[Not Me]

Originally posted by The Larry Davis Experience
So what is your point? That the Socialists, having won the election based on (in some people's view) their opposition to the country's support of the US in Iraq, will then pursue a set of policies designed to....what, exactly? Tax breaks for terrorists? Calling off the dogs on police investigations of Muslim extremists in Spain?

Did you miss the announcement by the new Socialist PM of Spain that he is pulling Spanish troops out of Iraq?

Originally posted by The Larry Davis Experience Judging from the widespread accusations of pussyhood, I may be alone in thinking that.

No, I think Ty may agree with you.

Originally posted by The Larry Davis Experience
Our disagreement may hinge on the fact that I don't assume that countries who opposed the US in invading Iraq did so because they didn't want to make AQ mad.

That and because they are pussies.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by Not Me
I think that is one of their goals, but not their only goal and I think they do work through the potential political and economic outcomes of their terrorism. I think if you think they are too unsophisticated in their thinking to do that, you are undersestimating your enemy.

Not at all. Though their $5M contribution to Dean for America was perhaps ill-advised (for which the Senior Undersecretary of US Domestic Political Affairs will likely be beheaded), I think that their overall organizational sophistication and ability to think two or three steps ahead in the repercussions for each of the Western democracies and Islamic republics is not fully appreciated.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Not Me
If they want to reestablish the Caliphate, I would think part of the plan would include regaining control of Iraq and Israel. I don't think Iraq and Israel are peripheral to their goal if their goal is to reestablish the Caliphate.

Maybe so, but a lot more needs to happen for them to take over -- their main enemies are Arab dictators, so they need to instigate some sort of conflict that will bring them down.

Because it energizes their base that they were able to influence an election like that. An energized base is more likely to lead to more recruits for their organization, which means more power for them and in their minds gives them a better chance of achieving their goals.

Your model, apparently, is evangelical Christian voters in the United States. Al Qaeda is more likely thinking about Algeria. They're going to get recruits by prompting the use of military force on civilians, not by influencing elections in Spain. "Look honey -- Al Qaeda helped elect a Socialist Prime Minister in Madrid! They really do have influence! Let's sign up!"

Right now, even moderate muslims are happy about what has happened in Spain. They feel the muslims have bitch slapped the West. AQ has been elevated a notch in the Arab street.

Cite, please? Just one moderate Muslim celebrating what happened in Spain would be fine.

eta: "fine" in the sense that then I would believe there is at least one

[sgtclub]

Prior posts

This is seen by AQ and the Arab world as a retreat on the war on terror, because AQ and the Arab world, at least, recognize that the 2 are one and the same. They are not so much caught up in the proof standard on which the left in this country and in our allied coutries are insisting. This is also evidence to AQ and the world that the coalition is a bunch of pussies that will retreat at the first site of blood, and for that reason is extremely emboldening. It is also evidience that AQ can isolate the US rather than vice versa.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Two New York ministers hit with criminal charges for marrying gay couples.

• Two ministers were charged with criminal offenses Monday for marrying 13 gay couples -- apparently the first time in U.S. history that clergy members have been prosecuted for performing same-sex ceremonies.
  
  District Attorney Donald Williams said gay marriage laws make no distinction between public officials and members of the clergy who preside over wedding ceremonies.
  
  Unitarian Universalist ministers Kay Greenleaf and Dawn Sangrey were charged with solemnizing a marriage without a license, the same charges leveled against New Paltz Mayor Jason West, who last month drew the state into the widening national debate over same-sex unions.
  
  Each charge carries a fine of $25 to $500 or up to a year in jail.
  
  "As far as I know that's unprecedented," said Mark Shields, a spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, a Washington-based gay rights group. "It's ridiculous that prosecutors would spend their time charging anyone with a crime who is simply trying to unite two people with basic rights and protections."

[The Larry Davis Experience]

Originally posted by Not Me
Did you miss the announcement by the new Socialist PM of Spain that he is pulling Spanish troops out of Iraq?

Yes.

Did you miss the announcement by the new Socialist PM of Spain that he is delaying the decision of whether to pull out the troops until June 30, in order to see if there is a UN mandate for the handover of sovereignty?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3512144.stm

One of us is wrong on this one. I'm sure that won't deter either of us from making the same points over and over again though.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by Not Me
Did you miss the announcement by the new Socialist PM of Spain that he is pulling Spanish troops out of Iraq?

No, I think Ty may agree with you.

That and because they are pussies.

Don't discount the possibility that Zapatero is positioning himself to remove Spanish troops (which apparently he said he would do during the campaign) but left open the possibility to keep them there if the UN "takes charge of the situation."

linky

Zapatero set a deadline for removal of June 30. Oddly enough, the deadline for a transfer of power to Iraqis is June 30. That may give Zapatero the political cover to claim that the situation has changed sufficiently for Spanish troops to remain, in whole or perhaps in part.

Who knows? They may ultimately remove troops, and may do so earlier. But in any event, the 24hrs since the election seems a bit early to declare "pussyhood," except for the fact that, you know, it feels good to say so.

ETA, Goddammit, Larry!

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
This is seen by AQ and the Arab world as a retreat on the war on terror, because AQ and the Arab world, at least, recognize that the 2 are one and the same. They are not so much caught up in the proof standard on which the left in this country and in our allied coutries are insisting. This is also evidence to AQ and the world that the coalition is a bunch of pussies that will retreat at the first site of blood, and for that reason is extremely emboldening. It is also evidience that AQ can isolate the US rather than vice versa.

Saying this sort of thing repeatedly does not make it so. We had broad support when we invaded Afghanistan. We did not when we invaded Iraq. This was because much of the world saw it as a stupid way to further the war on terrorism. Odd as it may sound, most European countries are opposed to terrorism, and many of them have much more experience with it than we do. Invading Iraq set back the war on terror, and it seems that the Spanish people recognize this.

And if the coalition is a bunch of pussies, that doesn't speak very well for the man leading it, does it? His father put together a better coalition. There is a reason why people don't pound nails with glass hammers -- they break.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
Maybe so, but a lot more needs to happen for them to take over -- their main enemies are Arab dictators, so they need to instigate some sort of conflict that will bring them down.

But first things first. They have to prevent the West from getting a foothold in the middle east by establishing a second democracy. Democracy will kill their changes of establishing islamic states.

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
They're going to get recruits by prompting the use of military force on civilians, not by influencing elections in Spain. "Look honey -- Al Qaeda helped elect a Socialist Prime Minister in Madrid! They really do have influence! Let's sign up!"

They killed over 200 civilians in Spain and injured countless more. Then in one huge collective act of pussihood, the Spanish people voted out their government.

I am willing to bet more than a few new suicide bombers signed on the dotted line on hearing this news.

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
Cite, please? Just one moderate Muslim celebrating what happened in Spain would be fine.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...ixnewstop.html

Ty, you are incredibly naive about the goals of Arab muslims. It is not just the so-called extremist Arab muslims that hate the west. Arab Muslims moderates and extremists alike feel emasculated by what happened centuries ago and blame the West for this.

Moderates and extremists alike are still pissed about what happened in Spain centuries ago and are willing to see what AQ did to the Spanish as divine retribution and a turning of the tide in the favor of islam.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Tyrone_Slothrop
Saying this sort of thing repeatedly does not make it so.

If Paigow posted here, she'd get rid of this sentence for us. i've heard it enough.