Politics: Where we struggle to kneel in the muck.

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Your theory is based on projections, which are based on statistics, which are tabulated by people who are not immune to error and are sometimes even biased. Economic projections are like epidemiological models - their predictive value is not the sort of thing you'd ever take to the bank.

According to statistics, I'm dead already of lung disease, kidney cancer, cirrhosis and heart issue. I'm not saying predictions don't have value - I'm just saying that screaming chicken little based on a pile of projected numbers is foolish. I ain't handing free money back because Robert Rubin's great big juicy brain says I should. If I'm wrong and reckless, whatever... won't be the first time and won't be the last.

My theory is based on the same principle that keeps me from maxing out all my credit cards at once on the theory that it's no problem because I'll be making much more money when it comestime to pay the interest and pay off the balances.

But you just keep on spending Sebby. After all, Bush is ramming bankruptcy reform legislation through Congress, too.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
As you typed these words, your pulse increased. You exhaled more Carbon dioxide. You increased pollution.

So yes, merely saying pollution increased is meaningless unless you show what you mean. Are you speaking of the arsenic levels? Do you have any specifics, or are you flying on hyperbole here?

Hey man, it's your kid. I'm childness. But if you don't vote for Kerry, your kid(s) will die immediately.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by sgtclub
No, but it does refute the puppet argument. Please explain why you think he is a US puppet, given that he was chosen by Iraqis among choices blessed by the UN. Or do you mean that anyone who was in charge in Iraq is a US puppet because they exist at our leisure?

Making the initial selection is indicative, but not determinative.

As for later events, there's been a good bit of past discussion on this board about Allawi's lack of independence, real and/or perceived.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by taxwonk
My theory is based on the same principle that keeps me from maxing out all my credit cards at once on the theory that it's no problem because I'll be making much more money when it comestime to pay the interest and pay off the balances.

But you just keep on spending Sebby. After all, Bush is ramming bankruptcy reform legislation through Congress, too.

That bankruptcy bill is being gutted. Its been fucked with so much it'll be a shell of what it was the first time around. And the thrust of the bill - to preclude people from avoiding credit card debt - doesn't affect me. I never use the plastic. Learned my lesson many long years ago.

No car payments. Just the mortgage and insurance. I could lose this gig tomorrow and live just fine for a long time. In fact, I ponder just walking a lot, but I'd have to give up a lot of entertainment spending.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
You want to know why suburbs exist? Because the Democrats have completely fucked up almost every one of America's major cities. Look around you in Chicago. Who's the boogeyman in your wasteland? Daley? Mell? Blagoyevich? Madigan?

The development of the car had nothing to do with it, either.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by taxwonk
I'm not Club. And I didn't write it to compliment Kerry. I wrote it to insult Dim Son. The plain truth is that both candidates are mediocre. I'm just backing the guy I think is less dangerous and whom I know is less stupid.

Bush wouldn't be nearly as dangerous with a Democratic Congress.

[Replaced_Texan]

Does anyone have any contacts at the ACLU? I'm looking on behalf of an arts organization that's having a show on free speech/art next year, and they're looking for a sponsor. They asked me to ask under the theory that I'm a liberal lawyer, so hey, I should know all other liberal lawyers on the planet. I actually do feel kind of bad that I don't know anyone at the ACLU.

Also, speaking of environmental stuff, same organization is doing a show on Brownfields that will probably turn into a reclamation project in Houston, so if you know anyone who would be interested in donating to/sponsoring/seeing that, I'd love their information also.

Feel free to PM me for more info if you need it before passing on your contacts.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Your theory is based on projections, which are based on statistics, which are tabulated by people who are not immune to error and are sometimes even biased. Economic projections are like epidemiological models - their predictive value is not the sort of thing you'd ever take to the bank.

According to statistics, I'm dead already of lung disease, kidney cancer, cirrhosis and heart issue. I'm not saying predictions don't have value - I'm just saying that screaming chicken little based on a pile of projected numbers is foolish. I ain't handing free money back because Robert Rubin's great big juicy brain says I should. If I'm wrong and reckless, whatever... won't be the first time and won't be the last.

Don't give me this shit. Statistics are not perfect, but only a fool disregards them completely. Have you picked Arizona in any of your office pools so far this season? Why or why not?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Bush wouldn't be nearly as dangerous with a Democratic Congress.

2. All the bad flows from complete control.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Don't give me this shit. Statistics are not perfect, but only a fool disregards them completely. Have you picked Arizona in any of your office pools so far this season? Why or why not?

Have you ever toyed with something called "Relative Risk" in your work? Its an amazingly misleading representation of data which, for reasons I still don't get, remains in use in the medical community. Doctors I know don't even like it, but it remains in use because, well, everyone's just grown accustomed to having it around, regardless of its useless prognostic capabilities.

Football handicapping is a bit different. The data has very few variables compared to health statistics of economic factors.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by sgtclub
No, but it does refute the puppet argument. Please explain why you think he is a US puppet, given that he was chosen by Iraqis among choices blessed by the UN. Or do you mean that anyone who was in charge in Iraq is a US puppet because they exist at our leisure?

Are you forgetting that the puppet comment was made about Allawi's appearance on behalf of the admin?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Are you forgetting that the puppet comment was made about Allawi's appearance on behalf of the admin?

Do you realize this is our whole point, and is why Kerry is so vile for being associated with the statement?

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Do you realize this is our whole point, and is why Kerry is so vile for being associated with the statement?

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Do you realize this is our whole point, and is why Kerry is so vile for being associated with the statement?

Your whole point is that Kerry is vile for pointing out that Allawi was allowing himself to be used to promote George Bush's electoral agenda, and yet you claim he isn't a puppet?

[Say_hello_for_me]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
The development of the car had nothing to do with it, either.

You know how the car relates to this? It allowed people to move farther away from *Democrats and still make it into work by 9:00 AM each day. You can fill in the "*" 50 different ways (really, just 1 big one), and its always going to translate back to a Democratic constituency.

You want to see the end of suburbs (and the end of your "car" theory or any other secondary theory)? Implement my section 8 dispersion onto Sebby, Not_Me and Clubby and tell them they couldn't run anywhere in the country where section 8 won't exist, if it exists anywhere at all.

Well, maybe do that and give it 20 years.

Or just raise gas taxes by $5.00 per gallon. That would work too.

Hello