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Old 02-02-2004, 08:05 PM   #4771
Hank Chinaski
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by pretermitted_child
It looks like your algorithm does not distinguish the following case:

Actual Score: NE: 32; CAR: 29

Entry#1: NE: 30; CAR: 24
Entry#2: NE: 34; CAR: 24

The calculation for Entry #1, according to your algorithm would be: (32-30)^2 + (29-24)^2 = 2^2 + 5^5 = 29

And the calculation for Entry #2 would be: (32-34)^2 + (29-24)^2 = (-2)^2 + 5^5 = 29

This is why, as I had mentioned in my post on the superbowl contest thread, that you need an additional metric for accuracy -- I chose the absolute value of the difference between your guess for the point difference and the actual point difference. In this case, the point difference in the actual game is 3 (=32-29) (which, in some ways, indicates that the teams were evenly matched; a higher point different would, presumably, indicate the opposite). The point difference for Entry #1 would be 6 (=30-24), while that of Entry #2 would be 10 (=34-24). Thus, under my algorithm, Entry #1 would win, which, I think, is a fairer result.

As for the sum of squares method in general, it penalizes guessing in a non-linear manner. This is why I suggested using absolute values.
you don't need absolute values. If you go over you lose, or are you suggesting thats not fair?
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:12 PM   #4772
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No, not really, but of all the hyped-up Super Bowl commercials, my favorite had to be the Carl's Jr. ad for the $6 Western Burger.

For those on the East Coast that probably didn't see it, go here and follow the links in the upper left for "On the TV":

http://www.carlsjr.com/home/

That's one TASTY burger.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:13 PM   #4773
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by pretermitted_child
It looks like your algorithm does not distinguish the following case:
[my brain hurts]
WWBDL*D?

*Brad DeLong.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:14 PM   #4774
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by pretermitted_child
It looks like your algorithm does not distinguish the following case:

Actual Score: NE: 32; CAR: 29

Entry#1: NE: 30; CAR: 24
Entry#2: NE: 34; CAR: 24

The calculation for Entry #1, according to your algorithm, would be: (32-30)^2 + (29-24)^2 = 2^2 + 5^5 = 29

And the calculation for Entry #2 would be: (32-34)^2 + (29-24)^2 = (-2)^2 + 5^5 = 29

This is why, as I had mentioned in my post on the superbowl contest thread, that you need an additional metric for accuracy -- I chose the absolute value of the difference between your guess for the point difference and the actual point difference. In this case, the point difference in the actual game is 3 (=32-29) (which, in some ways, indicates that the teams were evenly matched; a higher point difference would, presumably, indicate the opposite). The point difference for Entry #1 would be 6 (=30-24), while that of Entry #2 would be 10 (=34-24). Thus, under my algorithm, Entry #1 would win, which, I think, is a fairer result.

As for the sum of squares method in general, it penalizes guessing in a non-linear manner. This is why I suggested using absolute values.

Edited for spelling and a missing comma.
Pre,

This is exactly why I said I was afraid of you. But, I still like playing the poker with you...it's so revealing of your personality!

Your internet pal (scared pal),

Flinty
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:16 PM   #4775
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
you don't need absolute values. If you go over you lose, or are you suggesting thats not fair?
I, personally, think the "without going over" condition is not the most accurate, which is why my algorithm does not use it. Given a choice between simplicity/ease-of-use and accuracy, I'd go with accuracy every time. But that's me.

As for fairness, if no one has a problem with the "without going over" condition, and if it simplifies the calculation in such a way that it is manageable (e.g., doesn't require you to get cozy with Excel or Matlab or whatever) for busy non-timmies, then I guess it could be considered fair.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:18 PM   #4776
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The Price is Wrong

If Bob Barker says you can't go over, who the hell are we to differ?
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:20 PM   #4777
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by Atticus Grinch
WWBDL*D?

*Brad DeLong.
You don't get string theory and now you admit this doesn't work for you?
And you're the one that usually is sending us to dictionary.com to translate posts.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:21 PM   #4778
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Lesbian Fudge -- The Inspiration for Friehofers

Quote:
Originally posted by NotFromHere
Wouldn't they taste like rope then? And who would eat non-dairy, no wheat, no sugar, tasting like rope waffles unless they were high?
They don't taste like rope. Hemp is quite nutty and tasty. I like it. And it is very good for you. I don't eat hemp waffles, but I add hemp to the granola that I make.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:22 PM   #4779
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The Price is Wrong

Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
If Bob Barker says you can't go over, who the hell are we to differ?
be careful Slave, Remember, Barker was sexually harassing his underlings. If he's truly where Leagl's looking for management inspiration, you may be in for some rocky times.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:24 PM   #4780
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by Flinty_McFlint
Pre,

This is exactly why I said I was afraid of you. But, I still like playing the poker with you...it's so revealing of your personality!

Your internet pal (scared pal),

Flinty
Poker reveals my personality? So . . . you've been picking up on my tells, I see. Sneaky monkey, er alien!
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:26 PM   #4781
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The Price is Wrong

Quote:
Hank Chinaski
be careful Slave, Remember, Barker was sexually harassing his underlings. If he's truly where Leagl's looking for management inspiration, you may be in for some rocky times.
Hmm, my take on that E special was that Bob merely replaced the eye candy - changed the old tires, as it were.

Tomaytoe tomahtoe
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:30 PM   #4782
Hank Chinaski
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The Price is Wrong

Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Hmm, my take on that E special was that Bob merely replaced the eye candy - changed the old tires, as it were.

Tomaytoe tomahtoe
Cool! how long before Ty's out on Politics- that bitch is getting wrinkly?
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:33 PM   #4783
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Lesbian Fudge -- The Inspiration for Friehofers

Quote:
Originally posted by greatwhitenorthchick
They don't taste like rope. Hemp is quite nutty and tasty. I like it. And it is very good for you. I don't eat hemp waffles, but I add hemp to the granola that I make.
What's really odd is that I read 2 articles from the same day that said the feds said you could have hemp in the stores and another that said you could not have any hemp products in the stores and that retailers were scrambling to remove hemp oil, granola, waffles, etc. off of the shelves.

Never "tasted" it myself.
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:41 PM   #4784
Atticus Grinch
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
You don't get string theory and now you admit this doesn't work for you?
You're going to go down in history as the only person in the world who believes in string theory but doesn't believe in evolutionary biology.

P.S. I never said I didn't "get" it. I said it sounded like horseshit to me. You know, like feng shui, only with more dubious math involved. You see, the world is made up of microscopic threads, each vibrating with chi . . . .
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Old 02-02-2004, 08:46 PM   #4785
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Super Bowl and SB Contest

Quote:
Originally posted by pretermitted_child
It looks like your algorithm does not distinguish the following case:

Actual Score: NE: 32; CAR: 29

Entry#1: NE: 30; CAR: 24
Entry#2: NE: 34; CAR: 24

The calculation for Entry #1, according to your algorithm, would be: (32-30)^2 + (29-24)^2 = 2^2 + 5^5 = 29

And the calculation for Entry #2 would be: (32-34)^2 + (29-24)^2 = (-2)^2 + 5^5 = 29

This is why, as I had mentioned in my post on the superbowl contest thread, that you need an additional metric for accuracy -- I chose the absolute value of the difference between your guess for the point difference and the actual point difference. In this case, the point difference in the actual game is 3 (=32-29) (which, in some ways, indicates that the teams were evenly matched; a higher point difference would, presumably, indicate the opposite). The point difference for Entry #1 would be 6 (=30-24), while that of Entry #2 would be 10 (=34-24). Thus, under my algorithm, Entry #1 would win, which, I think, is a fairer result.

As for the sum of squares method in general, it penalizes guessing in a non-linear manner. This is why I suggested using absolute values.

Edited for spelling and a missing comma.
You've gotta be fucking kidding me.
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