Objectively intelligent.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The economic damage coming from consumer pullback comes fast

It's not at all clear to me what will happen to aggregate consumption. On the one hand, people are going to stock up and buy quantities and stuff (e.g., masks) they wouldn't otherwise buy. On the other hand, they may eat at home/have food delivered a lot more than going out. What's the relative size of those things?

It may get very hard for movie theaters and yoga studies and other things you can't consume without going out in public, but that's only part of the equation.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The race on the D side is the same one we had on both sides last time around: Establishment v. Insurgent. The former will vote for the latter, but I don't know about the other way around. It's kind of anathema to the whole idea of insurgency, and that's what Bernie's movement is, to support the corporate moderate candidate. The Establishment types, OTOH, figure anything is better than Trump and that they can neutralize and control Bernie.

If Bernie goes into the convention with a significant delegate lead and Biden wins via use of super delegates, I'd guess Biden can count on losing 1/3-1/2 of would-be Bernie voters.

One of the great things about the Bernie campaign (OK, maybe it's the only great thing...) is that now anyone at all can be a member of The Establishment. All you have to do is vote against him and, BAM!, you're The Establishment, doesn't matter what the color of your skin, your gender, your sexual preference, your past criminal record, your income, whatever, you have suddenly made it!

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

It's not at all clear to me what will happen to aggregate consumption. On the one hand, people are going to stock up and buy quantities and stuff (e.g., masks) they wouldn't otherwise buy. On the other hand, they may eat at home/have food delivered a lot more than going out. What's the relative size of those things?

It may get very hard for movie theaters and yoga studies and other things you can't consume without going out in public, but that's only part of the equation.

The projection of gains to food delivery services surprises me. People won't go out themselves, but they'll trust that others they do no see making and packing their meals aren't infected?

You'll see an across the board freeze on all expenditures for a bit. Less driving and flying, less use of public transportation, fewer hotel stays, less traffic at bars and restaurants. Haircuts, elective medical appointments and procedures... anything requiring a person to be in close proximity to others. The effect on related businesses (suppliers, vendors, etc.) will be big, and it'll hit quickly.

I think the sooner we start parading the people who have been quarantined and gone thru this sickness (which is allegedly a non-event for almost all people) on TV and having them explain that it's not a big deal, the better. They have to tackle the possible paranoia before the half of this country with shit for brains and no appreciation of science or medicine starts freaking out about this thing.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The sole attractive feature of Trump was the economy doing well.

I understand that you personally recoil from the idea that he attracts support from people who have some ethnic bias and who like traditional gender and ethnic hierarchies, but it's been discussed here so many times that you might at least acknowledge that other people think this, so that you don't have to assure them that you are intentionally ignoring the phenomenon.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

One of the great things about the Bernie campaign (OK, maybe it's the only great thing...) is that now anyone at all can be a member of The Establishment. All you have to do is vote against him and, BAM!, you're The Establishment, doesn't matter what the color of your skin, your gender, your sexual preference, your past criminal record, your income, whatever, you have suddenly made it!

It's a cult. Much more committed than the Trumpkins. They think they're storming the Bastille.

Maybe they are... Or maybe it's just a replay of the lesson, The House Always Wins.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I understand that you personally recoil from the idea that he attracts support from people who have some ethnic bias and who like traditional gender and ethnic hierarchies, but it's been discussed here so many times that you might at least acknowledge that other people think this, so that you don't have to assure them that you are intentionally ignoring the phenomenon.

Wait, so you're saying that just because he spews endless racist venom some of his supporters might be racists?

Really?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I understand that you personally recoil from the idea that he attracts support from people who have some ethnic bias and who like traditional gender and ethnic hierarchies, but it's been discussed here so many times that you might at least acknowledge that other people think this, so that you don't have to assure them that you are intentionally ignoring the phenomenon.

Sorry. I was thinking of myself and the people like me (there are many of us) who look at him and say, "Fucking mess," but acknowledge, he seems to have presided over a pretty good economy.

I don't recoil from the fact that he attracts troglodytes. I recoil from those troglodytes.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

This disease only has a 2% death rate. Worst case scenario we have a few thousand deaths. Mostly old and infirm people. Kids don't seem to be impacted much by it. So I don't think you'll see a significant number of dead kids, which would the only type of deaths shocking enough to get people angry.

I don't think you've thought this through. The flu is less deadly, and kills many times more people than that. People accept that risk because they are familiar with the flu. People are scared of Covid-19 because it's new. Think about traffic accidents and airplane accidents. People accept the steady toll from auto accidents, but if an equal number of people died in airplane accidents you'd have front-page stories and lots of people not flying. Now suppose flying was 20x likelier to kill you -- would anyone fly? People are not rational about risk, and a new disease is scary.

eta: Also, this thread. Current systems handle the flu, but not this.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Sorry. I was thinking of myself and the people like me (there are many of us) who look at him and say, "Fucking mess," but acknowledge, he seems to have presided over a pretty good economy.

I don't recoil from the fact that he attracts troglodytes. I recoil from those troglodytes.

How much better would the economy be if it wasn't being needlessly dragged down with tariffs and trade wars? (Or incompetent public health policy?)

[LessinSF]

Well, we watched Chris Matthews get old and pull a Dan Rather in real-time. And he is younger than Trump , Sanders or Biden or Bloomberg.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

This disease only has a 2% death rate. Worst case scenario we have a few thousand deaths.

2% of the US population is 6.5 million people.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

2% of the US population is 6.5 million people.

Why would you assume a 100% infection rate?

China is the most populated country on earth, I believe, and it only has a few hundred thousand people, if that, infected.

ETA: Here’s a quant modeling between 100 and 500 million cases worldwide: https://nevinsresearch.com/blog/stra...ions-covid-19/ That assumes an infection rate in the United States a far less than even 30%.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Why would you assume a 100% infection rate?

China is the most populated country on earth, I believe, and it only has a few hundred thousand people, if that, infected.

ETA: Here’s a quant modeling between 100 and 500 million cases worldwide: https://nevinsresearch.com/blog/stra...ions-covid-19/ That assumes an infection rate in the United States a far less than even 30%.

You said "worst case" is a few thousand. As I look at it now, you're saying 2% of far less than 30%, so, what, 2% of 20%? Still well over 1 million. So by a "few" thousand you mean a couple thousand thousand?

Worst case here is the likes of which we haven't seen since 1918. Worse than Aids, and I don't know about you, but I watched a lot of people die from aids.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

Well, we watched Chris Matthews get old and pull a Dan Rather in real-time. And he is younger than Trump , Sanders or Biden or Bloomberg.

This is true, but Matthews was kind of an ass when he was young, and most of those four...

ok, I get your point.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

You said "worst case" is a few thousand. As I look at it now, you're saying 2% of far less than 30%, so, what, 2% of 20%? Still well over 1 million. So by a "few" thousand you mean a couple thousand thousand?

Worst case here is the likes of which we haven't seen since 1918. Worse than Aids, and I don't know about you, but I watched a lot of people die from aids.

I’m being wildly generous with that 30%. If you take a worldwide assumption of peak 500 mil, out of 7.7 billion people on Earth, roughly 1/15th (6.6%) of the world will be infected.

6.6% of 320 mil is 21,120,000. 2% of 21,120,000 is 422,400.

That’s much more than my earlier assumption. But it’s also based off a model which does not take into account where those 500 mil cases will be. They could be largely kept to China, India, etc. And the death rates may vary wildly by location. So we may enjoy a much lower rate while China and Iran are responsible for the higher scores driving the majority of that 2% worldwide average.

I totally agree this’ll be way worse than AIDS. Transmission differences render AIDS a million times more containable.