Election '06: Prognostication. - Page 4

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) · 10-27-2006, 02:37 PM

To make this thread meaningful for its purpose, I would suggest that all posts that aren't purely (or primarily) numerical predictions of the composition of the Senate and House be moved into the main PB thread. It's complex enough to have one discussion thread going, let alone two.

bilmore · 10-27-2006, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
So you don't think it's a problem that the bill, once passed, has not seen anywhere near the funding planned, the funding that the bill was sold on? That Bush hasn't even requested much of it in his budget bills, given his other budgetary priorities?

If it is so successful, why aren't the Rs running on it?

Burger's right. Can I answer this next door?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-27-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
To make this thread meaningful for its purpose, I would suggest that all posts that aren't purely (or primarily) numerical predictions of the composition of the Senate and House be moved into the main PB thread. It's complex enough to have one discussion thread going, let alone two.

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Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-27-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bilmore
Burger's right. Can I answer this next door?

gr8

bilmore · 10-27-2006, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
gr8

In a previous life, I would be asking you why you are specifying Grade 8 fasteners given the brittleness issue.

Secret_Agent_Man · 10-30-2006, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
That's about what I bet Hank (1 month board support).

Come to think of it, I'm not sure what his counter-position was -- except that I might be wrong . . . wpp.

S_A_M

Actually, I counted wrong when I read this. My prediction back then was a Dem House and a 2-3 seat net Dem gain in the Senate.

S_A_M

bilmore · 10-30-2006, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
Actually, I counted wrong when I read this. My prediction back then was a Dem House and a 2-3 seat net Dem gain in the Senate.

S_A_M

I'll go for a Dem House by four, and a tied (or at least functionally deadlocked) Senate.

Tyrone Slothrop · 10-30-2006, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bilmore
I'll go for a . . . functionally deadlocked Senate.

Couldn't that term properly describe any Senate in which Bill Frist is the majority leader?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-30-2006, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
So, Ty, what are your bets?

Mine:

Senate: 50 Rs, 48 Ds, 2 Is who caucus with Ds
House: 218 Rs, 217 Ds

Pickups in both, but not enough to put the Ds over the top. Dems pick up house control in special elections over the next year.

No strong views on the Guvs at this point.

For Governors races, Dem. pickup of 5, so Dems 27, Reps. 23 when the dust settles.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-31-2006, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
So, Ty, what are your bets?

Mine:

Senate: 50 Rs, 48 Ds, 2 Is who caucus with Ds
House: 218 Rs, 217 Ds

Pickups in both, but not enough to put the Ds over the top. Dems pick up house control in special elections over the next year.

No strong views on the Guvs at this point.

I'm amending my House picks to 222 Ds, 213 Rs. It's looking stronger every day.

Should we have a deadline for our prognostications?

Hank Chinaski · 10-31-2006, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
I'm amending my House picks to 222 Ds, 213 Rs. It's looking stronger every day.

Should we have a deadline for our prognostications?

are polls for house races really accurate at all. when I worked in a campaign the polls were pretty meaningless. have they gotten better, or are these predictions more based upon national percentages?

Penske_Account · 10-31-2006, 08:01 PM

I predict the Rs hold both chambers by at least two seats in each.

Sorry Ds. There is always immigration to France.

Tyrone Slothrop · 11-06-2006, 11:37 AM

I predict the Dems gain 4 seats in the Senate (Casey, Brown, Tester or Whitehouse, and Webb) and 23 seats in the House. I would not be surprised at all for the gain to be 6 seats in the Senate (Whitehouse or Tester, and McCaskill). I would not be surprised at all if the turnover in the House is higher, perhaps by another half, but I don't think it'll be a lot lower. I have no idea about the governors races, but I hear about a Dem pick-up of 5 to 9 seats, so I'll guess 6.

The Republicans will talk a lot about how it was a bad year for incumbents, and the media will be slow to point out that not a single Democratic incumbent lost.

Not Bob · 11-06-2006, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I predict the Dems gain 4 seats in the Senate (Casey, Brown, Tester or Whitehouse, and Webb) and 23 seats in the House. I would not be surprised at all for the gain to be 6 seats in the Senate (Whitehouse or Tester, and McCaskill). I would not be surprised at all if the turnover in the House is higher, perhaps by another half, but I don't think it'll be a lot lower. I have no idea about the governors races, but I hear about a Dem pick-up of 5 to 9 seats, so I'll guess 6.

The Republicans will talk a lot about how it was a bad year for incumbents, and the media will be slow to point out that not a single Democratic incumbent lost.

Dems will pick up four seats (no Harold Ford, alas, and George Allen gets six more years in which to ponder what might have been but for that Macaca punk bastard getting him on tape) in the Senate and 20 in the House. Karl Rove gets hailed as a genius who snatched victory in holding the Senate out of the jaws of defeat.

sgtclub · 11-06-2006, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bilmore
I'll go for a Dem House by four, and a tied (or at least functionally deadlocked) Senate.

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