A Forum for Grinches and Ho-Ho-Hoes

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
The "fuck em" comment was put in to show how uncentral and meaningless that feeling is is if we allow for everyone to get to the polls and participate without getting blown up. I don't like them - but that shouldn't matter, and, if they get to vote, it doesn't matter.

I think whether our project there succeeds or fails will depend on a lot more than whether everyone gets a chance to vote. They voted under Hussein, too.

I submit that a philosophy that holds that we have to count votes that intentionally are not cast, just so we don't offend those who already see that they are a minority in a new democracy, is the first huge step away from a democratic Iraq. You talk about us guiding results that we want - this is the worst sort of such guiding. If this is to succeed, it won;t be as some bastardized affirmative action plan for minority voters. This is an attempt to make Iraq into one country - not three or four always-diverging interest groups who will "balance each other out".

You really seem to be missing the point, so let me try again. Suppose a world in which, in the 2006 election in Maine, only five people show up to vote for Maine's two congressional representatives. Maine still gets its two seats, because under our system, the seats are apportioned on the basis of population.

In the Iraqi election to be held next month, if only five people show up to vote in one of the Sunni provinces, they will be unrepresented, in essence and in fact, because the number of seats they get in the parliament (or whatever it's going to be called) will be proportionate to their share of the total votes case, not to their province's share of the population.

So this is not about "counting votes that are not cast."

First, I'm tired of you always siding with Bush.

Heh.

Second, the Sunnis don't find a democratic government to be illegitimate - they find a government that they don't control to be undesirable. Big difference. If you want to build democracy by imposing anti-democratic principles, you're taking the kind of short-sided stance that seemed to have characterized so much of our history in South America. I think we either need to work towards democracy, or get out, and not try to fashion some Rube Goldberg let's-make-everyone-happy kludge.

I'm sure that many Sunnis would be happy to have a democratic government, even though they will be outnumbered by the Shi'ites. They apparently have fewer guns, or something.

And what anti-democratic principles do you think I'm advocating? Aren't we both talking about how to "work towards democracy"? My point is that holding elections that predictably will exclude and marginalize the Sunnis is a good way to prevent Iraq from seeing a meaningful democracy anytime soon. You seem to think that if we hold a vote in which everyone has a chance to vote, our role is done.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by taxwonk
Don't drag Charlton Heston into this. He's feeling poorly.

It's like black magic. If you talk about "cold, dead hands" too often, it's gonna happen.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
How long has this "love of democracy" existed in the Ukraine? Give Iraq a chance Ty. People are still signing up to be cops despite the murders. They might really want to be in charge of their lives.

Or maybe they want to infiltrate?

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by bilmore
Second, the Sunnis don't find a democratic government to be illegitimate - they find a government that they don't control to be undesirable. Big difference. If you want to build democracy by imposing anti-democratic principles, you're taking the kind of short-sided stance that seemed to have characterized so much of our history in South America. I think we either need to work towards democracy, or get out, and not try to fashion some Rube Goldberg let's-make-everyone-happy kludge.

Look, I think we all understand your argument that the Sunnis bear some degree of personal responsibility to get out and vote, and shouldn't have the luxury of sitting on their asses and saying that the vote was therefore illegitimate.

But as Ty pointed out, the impact of not voting (for whatever reason) is more profound than Sunni Terrorist Fuckhead doesn't get a seat at Parliament, because if I understand it correctly, because seats are apportioned according to who votes, not voting means that there'll be no Sunni in Parliament ever.

Acknowledging that this outcome creates a number of unique problems, including the significant likelihood of civil war involving factions that feel completely unrepresented in the nifty new Iraq government does not, IMO, necessarily equate with giving the Sunnis a free ride.

[bilmore]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
You really seem to be missing the point, so let me try again.

And I'm going to miss the try-again, too. Wife's car is dead in a parking lot. Full of kids. Off to the rescue.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by bilmore
And I'm going to miss the try-again, too. Wife's car is dead in a parking lot. Full of kids. Off to the rescue.

Good luck with that. Not to worry -- the post will still be there later.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Has anyone heard about how American troops on Diego Garcia made it through the tsunami? Diego Garcia is a major military base on an atoll in the Indian Ocean with an average elevation of four feet above sea level and a maximum elevation of only twenty-two feet. It sounds like a big wave could put the whole place under water. I read a story that said that a scientific station in Hawaii was able to warn Diego Garcia before the wave hit, but on an island like that, what can you do?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Has anyone heard about how American troops on Diego Garcia made it through the tsunami? Diego Garcia is a major military base on an atoll in the Indian Ocean with an average elevation of four feet above sea level and a maximum elevation of only twenty-two feet. It sounds like a big wave could put the whole place under water. I read a story that said that a scientific station in Hawaii was able to warn Diego Garcia before the wave hit, but on an island like that, what can you do?

Good point. It would seem hard to be defensive there. The 8 dead
headline helps here.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Has anyone heard about how American troops on Diego Garcia made it through the tsunami? Diego Garcia is a major military base on an atoll in the Indian Ocean with an average elevation of four feet above sea level and a maximum elevation of only twenty-two feet. It sounds like a big wave could put the whole place under water. I read a story that said that a scientific station in Hawaii was able to warn Diego Garcia before the wave hit, but on an island like that, what can you do?

Good question. I imagine the only answer is to try and get everyone on a boat, if possible.

[spree: WaPo article, suggesting that tsunamis aren't so much immense waves as drastic and abrupt increases (and decreases) in water levels, which inundate everything. The anecdotal story suggests that being afloat on something seaworthy, while no guarantee for survival, probably helps your odds.]

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Good point. It would seem hard to be defensive there. The 8 dead
headline helps here.

I actually was asking a question, not making a point. Anyone know how the folks on Diego Garcia made out? They're talking about thousands of dead on the Andamans and Maldives, other low-lying islands in the Indian Ocean.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If Ukraine is the heart-warming, feel-good story about the triumph of democracy, Russia is the flip side, the cautionary tale about how democracy can go bad. Notwithstanding that he is turning the country into an authoritarian regime and removing any viable opposition to him, or perhaps because of it, he has strong support. Weimar Germany was a democracy, too.

There are many that are speculating that the orange tide (can't remember the exact name) will spill over to Russia next.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I actually was asking a question, not making a point. Anyone know how the folks on Diego Garcia made out? They're talking about thousands of dead on the Andamans and Maldives, other low-lying islands in the Indian Ocean.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...2/s1273118.htm

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by sgtclub
There are many that are speculating that the orange tide (can't remember the exact name) will spill over to Russia next.

Maybe gravity will make it flow down to Iran or Iraq. Far-fetched, but equally plausible.

[sgtclub]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If the tooth fairy stops the ongoing civil war and leaves a fully functioning parliamentary democracy under the collective pillow of the Kurds, Shi'ites and Sunnis, that will not be a bad thing.

The differences between Ukraine and Iraq are massive, and do not suggest that our enterprise in Iraq is likely to end well. For example, the forces of democracy in Ukraine appear to have drawn considerable strength from nationalism, and from the desire to have a meddling outside power play less of a role in the country's domestic affairs. We've managed to get those forces working against us in Iraq. Ukraine finds itself in a situation where the use of violence to subvert democracy is so unaccepted that it can only be used minimally (e.g., covert dioxin poisoning). In Iraq, there is much less agreement on the ground rules, if you will.

Not that we're likely to get there anytime soon, but it takes a lot more than a well-run election to find yourself in a durable democracy.

Give Iraq 13 or so years and then make the comparison.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...2/s1273118.htm

That's good news. I wonder why there was no damage there. Less of a wave? Better building codes? Odd, that.