Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

Age is definitely a factor because the strength of the immune system declines over time. And kids don't seem to be suffering from this at all.

HOWEVER, a strong immune system can also kill you. Some of the younger patients are undergoing what is called a cytokine storm, which is when the immune system goes into overdrive and doesn't stop. These patients do not have any underlying health conditions or indicia that they won't do well. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711683/

In 1918, MOST of the people who died were young and healthy (including one of my great-grandfathers and one of my great-uncles), and researchers think they were taken out because of the cytokine storm. In Covid-19, it seems to pop up in about 15 percent of the patients which is why there are so many stories of 35 year olds with no underlying health conditions not making it.

No one should be comfortable thinking that they're going to be fine if they get this thing.

Doc I know said the immunosuppressed they’ve been worried about are oddly doing well with it. They can’t figure out what in a person’s health profile triggers cytokine storm, but it tends to be feature in people with strong immune systems.

I heard a funny old saw the other day about how Spanish flu spared whiskey drinkers. But it actually could make some sense. If you batter the liver, you tamp down immunity. A healthy person who drinks, like many of us here, could be achieving perfect stasis.

And honestly, I see no option. I ride my bike, lift weights, then it’s straight to the gin, wine, champagne, and beer (I’ve rediscovered Belgians). WTF else am I going to do?

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

Age is definitely a factor because the strength of the immune system declines over time.

I concede my theory does not account for this, as to age being a factor to the likelihood of contracting the disease per same exposure. Dammit, RT! Go back to helping and saving people instead of proving me wrong here.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Doc I know said the immunosuppressed they’ve been worried about are oddly doing well with it. They can’t figure out what in a person’s health profile triggers cytokine storm, but it tends to be feature in people with strong immune systems.

I heard a funny old saw the other day about how Spanish flu spared whiskey drinkers. But it actually could make some sense. If you batter the liver, you tamp down immunity. A healthy person who drinks, like many of us here, could be achieving perfect stasis.

And honestly, I see no option. I ride my bike, lift weights, then it’s straight to the gin, wine, champagne, and beer (I’ve rediscovered Belgians). WTF else am I going to do?

I just went to the drug store to buy some bourbon (Mi laws rule, Pa laws drool). I got the last two bottles of Maker's. There were no other bottles of any brand I'd consider drinking. But the shelves were oddly full of various "Old-something or other." We might not tap down all the way to Stone Age, but I fear I'll be diving into some off brand near term.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I just went to the drug store to buy some bourbon (Mi laws rule, Pa laws drool). I got the last two bottles of Maker's. There were no other bottles of any brand I'd consider drinking. But the shelves were oddly full of various "Old-something or other." We might not tap down all the way to Stone Age, but I fear I'll be diving into some off brand near term.

People are definitely drinking more. I hope Penske has enough box wine to see him through.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I just went to the drug store to buy some bourbon (Mi laws rule, Pa laws drool). I got the last two bottles of Maker's. There were no other bottles of any brand I'd consider drinking. But the shelves were oddly full of various "Old-something or other." We might not tap down all the way to Stone Age, but I fear I'll be diving into some off brand near term.

When this first started (3/7) I made my regular Sam’s Club run and found most bottled water gone by 7:15 AM (before they started rationing) but the beer was untouched.

Then when I made a refill run this week I noticed there was water (only five to a customer — WTF needs 5 cases?) but the beer was hit super hard.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I concede my theory does not account for this, as to age being a factor to the likelihood of contracting the disease per same exposure. Dammit, RT! Go back to helping and saving people instead of proving me wrong here.

Sorry!! Also, this is especially disquieting, but also consistent with a lot of anecdotal data I've been hearing about the numbers not matching the reality. It's likely that the deaths all over have been under-reported. This is just a Kos story and I don't know how they determine what is "normal", but it does link to the scientific studies/observations. It's also likely that people are dying of other things because they can't get healthcare due to the hospitals being all full up with Covid patients.

Very important information about Coronavirus deaths coming out of Italy and Spain.

This is fascinating, and terrifying.

First acme a report out of Italy. Two physicists, including Claudio Cancelli Luca Foresti, the Mayor of Nembro, one of the hardest-hit towns in Italy, took a deep statistical dive into data about deaths, and here's what they found:

In normal times, looking at average death rates from January to March in previous years, 35 people would have died. Add the 31 reported Covid deaths, and they should be looking at approximately 70 deaths. Instead, there were 158 deaths. This huge spike, more than 3.6x the expected (subtracting out Covid), was too significant to be a statistical anomaly. Also, the additional undiagnosed deaths spiked in perfect harmony with the Covid deaths. The only possible explanation was that they, too, were Covid-related.

They then looked at neighboring towns and did the same analysis. They found the number of anomalous deaths (above average but not designated as Covid-related) ranged from 6.1X the Covid-related deaths all the way to 10.4X Civid-related deaths.

If they are right, the death rate far exceeds the death rates being reported, likely 4X or more.

Are they right?

Well, we don't know for sure, but there is strong evidence they are.

There's a newer report now, out of Spain.

On March 27th, Spain reported a total of 4,858 deaths from Covid-19. But that only included people who died after a positive test. The study also looked at the number of excess deaths, deaths above the expected based on averages.

In Castilla y León, between March 17 and March 24, they had 885 deaths, with 112 attributable to Covid. But the expected number was 500, meaning an additional 263 people died without a Covid diagnosis, in just the one week during the Covid spike. Absent a terrorist attack or mass shooting, there's just no other explanation than under-reported Covid deaths. That would be, by the say, a 50+% increase in deaths, and an under-reporting of more than 3X.

In two other regions, Castilla-La Mancha and the Comunidad de Madrid, from March 15 to March 24, and March 10 to March 16, respectively (based on first cases), there were 1198 more deaths than expected, with just 192 attributed to Covid.

So what does all this mean? It likely means two different things. First, deaths from Covid are grossly under-reported. If the US actually manages to keep deaths in the 100,00-240,000 range, the goalposts now being set by the Administration, it likely means we're really looking at half a million to a million dead Americans.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

Sorry!! Also, this is especially disquieting, but also consistent with a lot of anecdotal data I've been hearing about the numbers not matching the reality. It's likely that the deaths all over have been under-reported. This is just a Kos story and I don't know how they determine what is "normal", but it does link to the scientific studies/observations. It's also likely that people are dying of other things because they can't get healthcare due to the hospitals being all full up with Covid patients.

This podcast, which is long but quite excellent, gets into death under-reporting, and how small tweaks to the numerator turn a reassuring picture to a dire one: https://peterattiamd.com/michaelosterholm/

If you want the same scientist saying the same things with more entertaining banter, Osterholm also did Joe Rogan's show a while back and touched most of the same subjects. But even now, I do not have time to listen to a three hour podcast. And Attia is a doctor, so his questions are more insightful and linear than Rogan's often meandering inquiries.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I just went to the drug store to buy some bourbon (Mi laws rule, Pa laws drool). I got the last two bottles of Maker's. There were no other bottles of any brand I'd consider drinking. But the shelves were oddly full of various "Old-something or other." We might not tap down all the way to Stone Age, but I fear I'll be diving into some off brand near term.

There are cask strength bourbons and scotches out there which top the 65 proof threshold needed in alcohol to kill covid-19 in the throat. And there's always Bacardi 151.

Makers is not even close.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

People are definitely drinking more.

Ya think? Just a 'lil? Maybe just a tad? Given what you're facing, I don't know how you haven't toyed with opiates, or started using propofol to sleep.

I've been too busy to drink as I'd like. I've done like five of these these fucking SBA loans in the past few days, and every client's hair is on fire.

What do these people not understand about the statement, "COURTS ARE CLOSED, NOBODY IS IN CONTROL, AND THE BANKS DO NOT GIVE A FUCK THAT YOU REALLY REALLY WANT TO CLOSE ON A REFI NEXT WEEK. THEY'VE GOT SOME OTHER PRESSING ISSUES AT THE MOMENT."

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

There are cask strength bourbons and scotches out there which top the 65 proof threshold needed in alcohol to kill covid-19 in the throat. And there's always Bacardi 151.

Makers is not even close.

Can I make up for in volume?

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Can I make up for in volume?

Works for First Citywide Change Bank.

"All the time, our customers ask us, 'How do you make money doing this?' The answer is simple: Volume. That’s what we do."

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Ya think? Just a 'lil? Maybe just a tad? Given what you're facing, I don't know how you haven't toyed with opiates, or started using propofol to sleep.

I've been too busy to drink as I'd like. I've done like five of these these fucking SBA loans in the past few days, and every client's hair is on fire.

What do these people not understand about the statement, "COURTS ARE CLOSED, NOBODY IS IN CONTROL, AND THE BANKS DO NOT GIVE A FUCK THAT YOU REALLY REALLY WANT TO CLOSE ON A REFI NEXT WEEK. THEY'VE GOT SOME OTHER PRESSING ISSUES AT THE MOMENT."

I'm legit busy.

And I really, really wish we didn't live in a prohibition state.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

Sorry!! Also, this is especially disquieting, but also consistent with a lot of anecdotal data I've been hearing about the numbers not matching the reality. It's likely that the deaths all over have been under-reported. This is just a Kos story and I don't know how they determine what is "normal", but it does link to the scientific studies/observations. It's also likely that people are dying of other things because they can't get healthcare due to the hospitals being all full up with Covid patients.

If you know that hospitals are full of people and you won't get a ventilator, you may decided to stay home.

On the flip side, my wife says they're seeing fewer of other kinds of patients, because elective surgeries have been canceled, but also because the number of car accidents and gun shots and the like coming to the ER is way down. Everyone is safely at home. In future years we'll all have liver damage, but that's a problem for another day.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Ya think? Just a 'lil?

I would just like to thank RT again for pointing out that sheltering in place would require more booze. I'm a little concerned about the TP situation, but we're good for booze.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Ya think? Just a 'lil? Maybe just a tad? Given what you're facing, I don't know how you haven't toyed with opiates, or started using propofol to sleep.

I've been too busy to drink as I'd like. I've done like five of these these fucking SBA loans in the past few days, and every client's hair is on fire.

What do these people not understand about the statement, "COURTS ARE CLOSED, NOBODY IS IN CONTROL, AND THE BANKS DO NOT GIVE A FUCK THAT YOU REALLY REALLY WANT TO CLOSE ON A REFI NEXT WEEK. THEY'VE GOT SOME OTHER PRESSING ISSUES AT THE MOMENT."

It seemed pretty easy to apply. Is their a tough review process?