Keeping it civil instead of returning to our dark ways

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by baltassoc
Zogby's final numbers are calling it for Kerry, 311 to 213, with NV and CO too close to call, but irrelevant at 14 combined electors.

http://www.zogby.com/

One of the things I think is interesting is the trends inthe battleground states: in only one (TN) is he predicting that Bush will do better than 2000. Except for AZ, all the rest seem to have significant drops for Bush. I am curious if there are similar drops in red states.

Though he has Florida and Ohio incredibly close - he is calling them by a hair. And that is 48 EVs.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally posted by baltassoc
Zogby's final numbers are calling it for Kerry, 311 to 213, with NV and CO too close to call, but irrelevant at 14 combined electors.

http://www.zogby.com/

What does it mean for a state to be "trending"? Is the assumption that, like a baseball team, a candidate gets "hot" in the afternoon?

Is there any reason to believe that turnout rates over time is other than stochastic, and, if so, what do the figures show?

Given Ohio is +2 for Bush, but in teh Kerry column, it's not an entirely idle question.

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Douchist fuck.

Now, now. Remember, you catch more flies with honey than with water and vinegar.

[SlaveNoMore]

baltassoc
Zogby's final numbers are calling it for Kerry, 311 to 213, with NV and CO too close to call, but irrelevant at 14 combined electors.

http://www.zogby.com/

Zogby got crushed in 2002. Don't believe the hype.

[taxwonk]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore

• The tires of at least 30 cars and vans rented by the Republican Party to carry voters to the polls were slashed, Milwaukee police said this morning. The discovery was made at 6:30 a.m., said Sgt. Mark Wroblewski.
  
  The rental cars were parked near a GOP office in the 7100 block of W. Capitol Dr. Wroblewski said "at least" 30 cars were disabled. At least one tire was slashed and in some cases, all four tires were cut. Detectives were on the scene, the sergeant said. Police had no suspects in custody as of 8 a.m.

Spare us, please.

It sounds like you need a number of them. Or was the pun unintended?

[baltassoc]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Is there any reason to believe that turnout rates over time is other than stochastic, and, if so, what do the figures show?

Yes. All other things being equal, Republicans tend to vote in the morning. But there are other considerations as well, based on local issues. Inner city (D) precincts tend to report slower than suburban (R). And as we all recall, some of the most Republican parts of Florida don't close voting until an hour later. I don't see how these impact Zogby's poll particularly, since his is not an exit poll, but they have some effect in general on both exit polls and the release of official but incomplete results.

[greatwhitenorthchick]

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
stochastic

I learned a new word today. thanks, burger.

[SlaveNoMore]

taxwonk
It sounds like you need a number of them. Or was the pun unintended?

I take it then, that you think vandalism is funny when it hampers the Republican GOTV cause.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
I take it then, that you think vandalism is funny when it hampers the Republican GOTV cause.

I don't, but I still think his joke was funny.

Relax, man. Your guy is still in it, and (though, unlike Less, I haven't placed money on it) I'm still operating under the assumption that he'll ultimately win.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
I take it then, that you think vandalism is funny when it hampers the Republican GOTV cause.

I egged your car in '87.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
I take it then, that you think vandalism is funny when it hampers the Republican GOTV cause.

They should have just made like penske and retired.

[SlaveNoMore]

Did you just call me Coltrane?
I egged your car in '87.

I wasn't old enough to drive in '87, dolt.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
I wasn't old enough to drive in '87, dolt.

Really? I pictured you as a 73-year old man, sitting in his lawn chair, shaking his fist and screaming at the neighbor kids.

[Replaced_Texan]

is reporting on the slashed tires in Minnesota and about 6000 Rutgers students who registered but somehow didn't end up on the registers.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
I wasn't old enough to drive in '87, dolt.

It was your mother's car.