Politics: Where we struggle to kneel in the muck.

[LessinSF]

Kerry down to +150 (3-2 against).

Less (waiting for the new Zogby to be released) inSF

[Say_hello_for_me]

Originally posted by Sidd Finch
Seems like that's happened in any number of places. And remember when a couple of 12-year olds shot up a school in some southern state -- Arkansas? And the sniper in the tower at a football game in Texas? The MacDonald's massacre? (Anyone know what the gun control laws are in Columbine?)

Free and easy access to firearms didn't prevent any of these killings. Your inability to identify a shooting incident similar to the 101 California massacre that occurred in a state without strong gun control laws has nothing to do with reality. It is simply your perception, dictated by your ideological view of the effect of gun control laws on the populace's ability to defend itself.

In other words, if you firmly believe something, it's pretty easy to convince yourself that the evidence uniformly supports you.

And for every massacre victim that you can't point to in a conceal-carry or more state, I'll do my best to avoid googling to find the dozens of uncharged survivors of gun violence who have survived only by flouting the law and having a gun handy when a gun was needed to ward off an armed criminal. Happens all the time in the anti-gun spots, and I'll be damned if I can think of even one time when anybody has been willing to prosecute the armed self-defender.

But no, I'm not saying the evidence uniformly supports me. I do, however, think that the weight of the evidence supports me. If nothing else, these massacres you point to in places like Texas pale in comparison to the homicide rates in, get this, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York City and Washington DC. I'm not 100% certain, but guess with me what these cities have in common?

And why is it my inability to "identify a shooting incident similar to the 101 California massacre that occurred in a state without strong gun control laws", its not like I'm the only one trying to think of one.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Does the right to assemble include the right to bang on fucking drums for 5 hours and counting?

Where I grew up, you'd solve this problem by having a few white guys with guns make a visit.

[SlaveNoMore]

LessinSF
Kerry down to +150 (3-2 against).

Less (waiting for the new Zogby to be released) inSF

Not sure what Zogby will say, but latest WaPo poll (to be released later) has Bush up 5 points, while this electoral college map has Bush's electoral lead actually widening

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Not sure what Zogby will say, but latest WaPo poll (to be released later) has Bush up 5 points, while this electoral college map has Bush's electoral lead actually widening

The most recent polls on that map were taken immediately pre-debate (OH, AL, SC, AL), so those polls have nothing to do with post-debate trends. My bet is that in those polls the Ohio polls moved towards Bush from an earlier and outdated series - I think what the state polls in general are showing right now is that there was some pre-debate movement Kerry's way, probably a normal tightening of the race going into October as strays return to base. A lot of their recent polls were also Strategic Vision polls, which are partisan.

The most interesting new factor is that new voter registration seems to be through the roof. Who would have thought? Apparently, the only polls betting on upturns in voting are the Zogby's, so place your bets accordingly.

[Shape Shifter]

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
And for every massacre victim that you can't point to in a conceal-carry or more state, I'll do my best to avoid googling to find the dozens of uncharged survivors of gun violence who have survived only by flouting the law and having a gun handy when a gun was needed to ward off an armed criminal. Happens all the time in the anti-gun spots, and I'll be damned if I can think of even one time when anybody has been willing to prosecute the armed self-defender.

But no, I'm not saying the evidence uniformly supports me. I do, however, think that the weight of the evidence supports me. If nothing else, these massacres you point to in places like Texas pale in comparison to the homicide rates in, get this, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York City and Washington DC. I'm not 100% certain, but guess with me what these cities have in common?

And why is it my inability to "identify a shooting incident similar to the 101 California massacre that occurred in a state without strong gun control laws", its not like I'm the only one trying to think of one.

There was a group that offered cash rewards to people who used a gun to prevent or disrupt a crime. The number is very low, especially so considering the number of deaths/injuries from accidental shootings. Speaking from personal experience, having a gun with me would not have helped me because the criminal had the element of surprise -- the gun was pointed at me before I even knew what was going on.

I'm not anti-gun, but more guns do not make society a safer, more law-abiding place. An extradordinary percentage of drivers in Houston are armed (see RT's post, supra), but haven't noticed that it makes Houston drivers more polite.

[dtb]

Originally posted by Shape Shifter
There was a group that offered cash rewards to people who used a gun to prevent or disrupt a crime. The number is very low, especially so considering the number of deaths/injuries from accidental shootings. Speaking from personal experience, having a gun with me would not have helped me because the criminal had the element of surprise -- the gun was pointed at me before I even knew what was going on.

I'm not anti-gun, but more guns do not make society a safer, more law-abiding place. An extradordinary percentage of drivers in Houston are armed (see RT's post, supra), but haven't noticed that it makes Houston drivers more polite.

Just hold the phone a second here, shifty-boy...

Do you mean to tell me that the NRA's slogan, "An Armed Society is a Polite Society" is actually not true?!?

That just does not compute.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
....while this electoral college map has Bush's electoral lead actually widening

Read the text below the pretty pictures and you will see that the guy who runs that site just changed his methodology to reflect the average of the last three polls, rather than the most recent, making this the only day that site will reflect older information than the day before. ("Today the site undergoes its first major change in methodology since its inception.")

[Gattigap]

Over the past couple of days, Fox News has covered itself with glory by apparently reading, and repeating, Slave's and NotMe's posts. Normally this would be cause for cheering, except Fox has to later apologize.

Sure, they're great joke fodder while lying in the tanning bed, but it's probably poor form for a "news organization" to publish stories with faux Kerry quotes in them written by your "unbiased" correspondent..

Though chastened enough to apologize that time around, Fox yesterday displayed additional fine jounalistic skills by quoting pro-Kerry statements from a parody group, Communists for Kerry.

Oopsie! Fox's crack journalistic staff forgot to click on the "About us" link for the groups website, where they would've found that it's really a Republican 527 using parody to battle communism. Well, honest mistake.

[SlaveNoMore]

Gattigap
Over the past couple of days, Fox News has covered itself with glory by apparently reading, and repeating, Slave's and NotMe's posts. Normally this would be cause for cheering, except Fox has to later apologize.

And they admitted their mistake.

Something CBS and Rather still refuse to do.

[SlaveNoMore]

Tyrone Slothrop
Read the text below the pretty pictures and you will see that the guy who runs that site just changed his methodology to reflect the average of the last three polls, rather than the most recent, making this the only day that site will reflect older information than the day before. ("Today the site undergoes its first major change in methodology since its inception.")

So they are averaging polls rather than following the day-to-day swings. More accurate, if anything.

So for post-debate polls, we have the WaPo 5%, and now we have Pew:

• The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,002 registered voters, finds Bush maintaining a 48%-41% lead over Kerry among all voters. However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner.
  
  When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a slight edge (49%-44%) in voting intentions. This marks the first time in 16 years of Pew Research Center polling that a Democratic candidate has made a better showing on a likely voter base than on the basis of all registered voters.
  
  The high level of Democratic motivation to vote is surprising given that only half of Democratic voters think that Kerry will win in November. By comparison, fully 85% of Republicans and even 60% of independents expect Bush will win the election.

Very interesting.

[Gattigap]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
And they admitted their mistake.

Something CBS and Rather still refuse to do.

I'm guessing that given the amount of effort devoted to Rathergate, you're aware of their widely broadcast apology, and what you're trying to say here is that their apology is, in some way, insufficient.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
And they admitted their mistake.

Something CBS and Rather still refuse to do.

Uh, didn't Rather apologize on national television? I'm pretty sure I saw that on the Daily Show.

[baltassoc]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
And they admitted their mistake.

Something CBS and Rather still refuse to do.

WTF? I saw the broadcast where Rather admitted the materials were wrong and apologized on behalf of CBS and himself for the errors. I realize that the truth makes for a less convenient soundbite, but damn.

[sgtclub]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2004Oct4.html