Objectively intelligent.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Here's one thing I don't understand:

Take out food should be a huge transmission source. But it doesn't seem to be one.

I've not eaten any takeout in three weeks. Largely because my usual takeout was Whole Foods, and that's been closed. And no way am I going to a Starbucks. (If get frustrated and decide I want the virus so I can get the immunity and go on doing what I like, I will probably go to a Starbucks, as I can't think of any place where it'd be more easily transmitted.)

But I hear of all these people ordering from delis and Chick Fil A and Burger King, etc. And food deliveries are constant in my neighborhood. How are those places not spreading this like wildfire? The employees there tend to be working class, living in densely populated areas, using public transportation, therefore exposed to the virus at work and in their neighborhoods.

How are fast food places not causing spikes all over the country?

Are you literate? The answer is that heat seems to denature the virus and it can’t survive in the digestive tract.

Sure, if you touch a container with virus on it and then rub your eyes or pick your nose you can get it to where it can reproduce, but eating it isn’t a danger and the usual food prep-precautions also work against it.

ETA: This reads like you don’t understand the difference btw a virus and a bacteria.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

If you're crafty at all, throw a wire in the top seam of the mask and it can mold the mask to your face better to prevent the fogging.

And if not, send me your address and I'll be happy to make you a facemask that works with your glasses. It'll probably have Star Wars fabric.

Don’t tell my MIL, who’s made me several, but I might take you up on that.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...s-shelter.html

The death rate might be wildly inflated if this holds true and can be extrapolated to the broader population.

Given our testing limits, the death rate is likely under estimated. But yes, given the asymptomatic infections, maybe not by that much.

[Adder]

Not yet peer-reviewed, but scientific study says, thus far, that Trump’s treatment has no effect: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....10.20060699v1

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Are you literate? The answer is that heat seems to denature the virus and it can’t survive in the digestive tract.

Sure, if you touch a container with virus on it and then rub your eyes or pick your nose you can get it to where it can reproduce, but eating it isn’t a danger and the usual food prep-precautions also work against it.

ETA: This reads like you don’t understand the difference btw a virus and a bacteria.

Go away. From like, half this board who are nicer than me:

You're a Fucking Idiot.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Given our testing limits, the death rate is likely under estimated. But yes, given the asymptomatic infections, maybe not by that much.

See above.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

See this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...y-rate/610132/

The number of likely undercounted and exposed looks many multiples of the undercounted dead.

It looks increasingly like viral load and co-morbidities are huge factors.

(Don't weigh in, Adder. If I have to explain it, I'm going to become wildly insulting. Now is not the time. Unlike you, I have to actually counsel people on reopening. Jerk off. Play chess. Busy yourself. I'm interested in what Ty thinks, not you.)

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I wasn't thinking of foreign holders and I wasn't thinking of rentiers. I was thinking about domestic entities that lend money as a business and hold a lot of loans. You know, like a bank. Your plan is that they just all go bankrupt?

I was trying to start with lenders of last resort and move backwards. Sovereigns are where forgiveness has to start. Particularly because this is going to slam developing nations more than the developed.

I don't pretend to have complete answer. But as someone with a huge appreciation for the elegance of the old Judaic laws on debt (which stopped debt from becoming extreme and cured inequality before it could be an issue), well, maybe it's wise to revisit some of the wisdom of our elders?

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Adder

Not yet peer-reviewed, but scientific study says, thus far, that Trump’s treatment has no effect: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....10.20060699v1

Another one looks promising though.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Are you literate? The answer is that heat seems to denature the virus and it can’t survive in the digestive tract.

Sure, if you touch a container with virus on it and then rub your eyes or pick your nose you can get it to where it can reproduce, but eating it isn’t a danger and the usual food prep-precautions also work against it.

ETA: This reads like you don’t understand the difference btw a virus and a bacteria.

Not sure why your post was so harsh.

What would happen if you snort E. coli?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Go away. From like, half this board who are nicer than me:

You're a Fucking Idiot.

C'mon Sebby, don't be a snowflake. You dish out the abuse too, you should be able to take it.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The number of likely undercounted and exposed looks many multiples of the undercounted dead.

It looks increasingly like viral load and co-morbidities are huge factors.

(Don't weigh in, Adder. If I have to explain it, I'm going to become wildly insulting. Now is not the time. Unlike you, I have to actually counsel people on reopening. Jerk off. Play chess. Busy yourself. I'm interested in what Ty thinks, not you.)

The medical stuff is interesting because we're stuck at home and need to obsess about something. But if you're counseling people about reopening, I'm not sure what difference it makes. I don't see how we get anywhere near normal without much, much better and more widespread testing than we have now. We need to be able to identify community spread quickly and to shut it down with contact tracing. If we can't do that, then people are going to avoid social contact and the economy won't be back to normal. Trump continues to fuck up the federal government's management of testing, relative to just about every other country in the world, perhaps because he is more interested in helping donors profiteer from the crisis than in providing a public service. Sadly, the positive externalities from testing are huge, which means you need government to provide it because private industry is never going to have the right incentives.

Until we can test widely, figure out who is sick, isolate them, and track down anyone they may have infected, we're in a world of economic hurt.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I was trying to start with lenders of last resort and move backwards. Sovereigns are where forgiveness has to start. Particularly because this is going to slam developing nations more than the developed.

I don't pretend to have complete answer. But as someone with a huge appreciation for the elegance of the old Judaic laws on debt (which stopped debt from becoming extreme and cured inequality before it could be an issue), well, maybe it's wise to revisit some of the wisdom of our elders?

Those of us who work in lending are maybe not interested in being left to hold this bag. I'd be curious to hear how you can make debt relief without ruining a huge chunk of the economy.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

C'mon Sebby, don't be a snowflake. You dish out the abuse too, you should be able to take it.

I can't take stupid so severe that it assumes I was arguing that eating the food was the issue. Unless you're an absolute moron, and you've not paid any attention to the controversy over whether the virus remains on packaging, you know I was addressing the possibility of acquiring the virus from touching the packaging.*

If you're eating takeout, you're touching the package in which it is transferred to you. If I get Thai takeout as I used to, I have to touch the bag, then the plastic dishes in which its kept. This provides numerous contact points where, had the food been packaged by someone with Covid, I could conceivably get the virus on my hands and, if not careful, accidentally transfer it to my mouth or nose.

Seems odd that with so much takeout food being consumed, must of it prepared by people at high risk of contracting the virus, there have not been more cases attributable to this form of transmission.

It suggests that perhaps acquisition of the virus from exposure to surfaces on which it is located is a far more rare than exposure via inhalation.
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* Technically, you could also acquire it from touching the bun of a sandwich that has not been heated. Though this seems far fetched.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The medical stuff is interesting because we're stuck at home and need to obsess about something. But if you're counseling people about reopening, I'm not sure what difference it makes. I don't see how we get anywhere near normal without much, much better and more widespread testing than we have now. We need to be able to identify community spread quickly and to shut it down with contact tracing. If we can't do that, then people are going to avoid social contact and the economy won't be back to normal. Trump continues to fuck up the federal government's management of testing, relative to just about every other country in the world, perhaps because he is more interested in helping donors profiteer from the crisis than in providing a public service. Sadly, the positive externalities from testing are huge, which means you need government to provide it because private industry is never going to have the right incentives.

Until we can test widely, figure out who is sick, isolate them, and track down anyone they may have infected, we're in a world of economic hurt.

I saw huge lines of cars at Starbucks for the first time in weeks. At a meeting earlier today (distanced), all people could talk about was how there's finally "a plan." Gov. Wolf might be toppled in a coup if he tries to push a lock down beyond mid May.

The desire to resume life is overwhelming, and people are seeing green shoots. As I noted earlier, while some will be scared silly, neuroses tends to go along with intelligence, and it is not the default setting for the average American. You and I may think they're nuts. But what we think doesn't matter much.

There will be a surge in activity in the first two weeks of May. But it will be limited by two things: (1) People with fewer dollars after having been laid off; and, (2) Emphasis on necessities and things-just-above-necessities rather than truly discretionary purchases.

Barbers are going to have a great week in May. Forget all that stuff about how people will be afraid of contact. People are going to want to get rid of the Jesus haircut and women are going to need their roots done.

Gyms will crush it when they reopen. Imagine how many people feel like garbage because they couldn't work out. It's summer. Nobody wants to be fat in summer.

But yeah, if you're selling luxury vehicles, this is a really bad year. If you're a pricey restaurant, you're in a tough spot. If you're selling expensive clothes, you're going to feel a pinch from all of the people pulling back.

My advice so far has been to be careful, but to not become insanely neurotic, and not be paranoid about liability. To survive this, businesses are going to have to accept some risk. He who waits until the risk is all but neutralized will be dead by the time he resumes operations, his market share having been gobbled up the cowboys who leaned into the risk, prudently, earlier. (This might be why people ask me if I'm providing legal or business advice. The latter. The former, telling people all the reasons they can't do something rather than finding solutions, is a waste of money.*)

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* Biggest possible landmine for businesses is that ludicrous leave bill. Every small to mid sized business is requesting the DOL waiver, or hiring back the childless first to avoid the risk. The bill harms workers.