Objectively intelligent.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You win the internets for the day.

Except lighthouses don’t go away. Unless a vaccine comes out fast we have to brave it, I think. I’m not sure of timeline, “reopening” so my firm can sit in our office and do nothing, cuz there is no work, ain’t helping (got a letter from our #3 client- “do not bill us for anything. We don’t make _____ now, we make ventilators now.” But at some point we have to go back to life and deal, yes?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Today’s 800 is tomorrow’s 600.

They said the same thing you’re saying now in 2008.

You’re wildly underestimating the the numbers of weak risks out there. After 2008, ratings were relaxed to improve borrowers’ ability to acquire credit and because banks want to show regulators stronger portfolios. Banks also increased credit card lines for good and decent risks to show a bigger delta between available credit and credit used. This made the borrowers and banks look stronger. Ratings agencies just started making the standards less forgiving last year.

But that’s just credit cards. Look at auto loans. They have 7 year loans now. Is that an indicator of a strong consumer? That’s a product for a strapped person (or a moron buying what he can’t afford).

And what’s been keeping young buyers out of the housing market? They can’t earn enough to put down a down payment. But that’s just a traditional loan. Why don’t they put down 3% on an FHA? Because they still can’t qualify.

Look, the reality is banks loan to most of the public. They have to do so to survive. But only about 25% of the country is strong enough to survive through a four month shutdown. That means a whole lot of loans are going to go into the non performing bucket real quick. The daisy chain of defaults you’ll likely see will be a cycle that will grow in momentum and as it does, default will be normalized.

What’s normalized jumps to ubiquitous in short order.

I guess we're going to see how it pans out. So far, not too bad. Finger crossed.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Except lighthouses don’t go away. Unless a vaccine comes out fast we have to brave it, I think. I’m not sure of timeline, “reopening” so my firm can sit in our office and do nothing, cuz there is no work, ain’t helping (got a letter from our #3 client- “do not bill us for anything. We don’t make _____ now, we make ventilators now.” But at some point we have to go back to life and deal, yes?

Very few will brave it. We need tests. Whether serum or RNA, or preferably both, nothing major is happening until there is widespread testing

The optimism is places like theMayo Clinic and U of MN are saying widely available serum testing isn’t that far away, here. How we’re going to pay for it or get it out to everyone is yet to be seen.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Very few will brave it.

Jacksonville Beach opened earlier today.



There are a lot of people who aren't taking the social distancing seriously, enough to sure that many more people get sick, but they're not going to get the economy back to normal by themselves.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I can't take stupid so severe that it assumes I was arguing that eating the food was the issue. Unless you're an absolute moron, and you've not paid any attention to the controversy over whether the virus remains on packaging, you know I was addressing the possibility of acquiring the virus from touching the packaging.*

If you're eating takeout, you're touching the package in which it is transferred to you. If I get Thai takeout as I used to, I have to touch the bag, then the plastic dishes in which its kept. This provides numerous contact points where, had the food been packaged by someone with Covid, I could conceivably get the virus on my hands and, if not careful, accidentally transfer it to my mouth or nose.

Seems odd that with so much takeout food being consumed, must of it prepared by people at high risk of contracting the virus, there have not been more cases attributable to this form of transmission.

It suggests that perhaps acquisition of the virus from exposure to surfaces on which it is located is a far more rare than exposure via inhalation.
_______
* Technically, you could also acquire it from touching the bun of a sandwich that has not been heated. Though this seems far fetched.

If you weren’t full of shit, you’d know why the bun isn’t a meaningful risk either, but you’re full of shit.

The best we know right now is that no one is getting it from inhalation. Could be, but not known. The best that we know is that it doesn’t remain viable for long on porous surfaces. The best we know is that even if you touch a surface that contains it, you need to then transport it to one of the mucus membranes in your eyes, nose and throat where it is be able to reproduce. The doctors and epidemiologists aren’t lying to you. There is no conspiracy to mislead you. You aren’t smarter than them. They may turn out to be wrong, but what they are saying now is that you are.

The most obvious answer is that even if it’s on people’s Chic-fil-a they aren’t getting enough on their hands and/or transporting it to where they can get infected. This isn’t particularly surprising, given that the food safety practices that prevent widespread cholera and listeria infections, for example, also work here. Hand washing and not sneezing of the food make a really big difference. I don’t know about you, but we also wipe down our takeout containers, transfer the food to containers we have cleaned and wash our hands before eating (no, I don’t think we are typical).

But go lie to the ER so you can get hydroxyquinine or whatever it is.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Jacksonville Beach opened earlier today.



There are a lot of people who aren't taking the social distancing seriously, enough to sure that many more people get sick, but they're not going to get the economy back to normal by themselves.

I mean, we can’t really tell how far apart those people are at that distance, but opening beaches is moronic and will kill people. How did we get here?

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Except lighthouses don’t go away. Unless a vaccine comes out fast we have to brave it, I think. I’m not sure of timeline, “reopening” so my firm can sit in our office and do nothing, cuz there is no work, ain’t helping (got a letter from our #3 client- “do not bill us for anything. We don’t make _____ now, we make ventilators now.” But at some point we have to go back to life and deal, yes?

My point:
There’s an old joke about a Navy ship trying to force another ship to move but it’s a lighthouse. Google it.

Similarly, if someone from NY had covid, recovered, has a wealth of antibodies, and is generally thought not to be contagious, but we don’t know, he could say “fuck it, open whatever you want. I’m the lighthouse”.

[Icky Thump]

The countries that lock down (New Zealand) with those who don’t.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/brazil-bra...150712295.html

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

If you weren’t full of shit, you’d know why the bun isn’t a meaningful risk either, but you’re full of shit.

The best we know right now is that no one is getting it from inhalation. Could be, but not known. The best that we know is that it doesn’t remain viable for long on porous surfaces. The best we know is that even if you touch a surface that contains it, you need to then transport it to one of the mucus membranes in your eyes, nose and throat where it is be able to reproduce. The doctors and epidemiologists aren’t lying to you. There is no conspiracy to mislead you. You aren’t smarter than them. They may turn out to be wrong, but what they are saying now is that you are.

The most obvious answer is that even if it’s on people’s Chic-fil-a they aren’t getting enough on their hands and/or transporting it to where they can get infected. This isn’t particularly surprising, given that the food safety practices that prevent widespread cholera and listeria infections, for example, also work here. Hand washing and not sneezing of the food make a really big difference. I don’t know about you, but we also wipe down our takeout containers, transfer the food to containers we have cleaned and wash our hands before eating (no, I don’t think we are typical).

But go lie to the ER so you can get hydroxyquinine or whatever it is.

That's the best you got?

1. You totally ignored the packaging argument;
2. You fought the footnote like that was the whole argument, because that was the only shred of a reply you had;
3. You roped in an argument about hydroxychloroquine from days ago in a bitter little coda.

Go tell your clients all the things they can't do.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

My point:
There’s an old joke about a Navy ship trying to force another ship to move but it’s a lighthouse. Google it.

Similarly, if someone from NY had covid, recovered, has a wealth of antibodies, and is generally thought not to be contagious, but we don’t know, he could say “fuck it, open whatever you want. I’m the lighthouse”.

I'd never heard it. Looked it up myself. The joke/warning is pretty great.

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-dest...200745675.html

If that's true, we're going to see an explosion of activity in 30-45 days.

I think I had it (for good reason based on travel and symptoms), so I'm playing the odds (I also go to the store all the time).

Dying also isn't freaking me out much anymore. The highs get less insane as you get old. You start getting satisfied. The luck of being born into this country is like a foie gras and scotch all you can eat bar. Don't get greedy, don't get old and ugly... If you have to leave the party early, understand, you're more fortunate than 99.9% of other people born on the planet. You hit a crazy home run just being born here at the time you were.

And none of it means anything anyway, so for god's sake don't sweat a legacy.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

That's the best you got?

1. You totally ignored the packaging argument;
2. You fought the footnote like that was the whole argument, because that was the only shred of a reply you had;
3. You roped in an argument about hydroxychloroquine from days ago in a bitter little coda.

Go tell your clients all the things they can't do.

You are entirely an illiterate idiot. The packaging is a low-quality transmitter, as I said, because it’s porous. It’s also unlikely to be sneezed or spit upon, because of normal food safety protocols. Also, people accepting it are likely taking greater than normal protocols, including washing their hands. The packaging argument is the same as the food argument, except for heat. The people working there aren’t trying to get you infected, even if they don’t have PTO.

You falsely asserted that people not getting it via obviously low risk means implies that airborne transmission is the primary route, because you have never had any judgment about anything.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I'd never heard it. Looked it up myself. The joke/warning is pretty great.

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-dest...200745675.html

If that's true, we're going to see an explosion of activity in 30-45 days.

I think I had it (for good reason based on travel and symptoms), so I'm playing the odds (I also go to the store all the time).

Dying also isn't freaking me out much anymore. The highs get less insane as you get old. You start getting satisfied. The luck of being born into this country is like a foie gras and scotch all you can eat bar. Don't get greedy, don't get old and ugly... If you have to leave the party early, understand, you're more fortunate than 99.9% of other people born on the planet. You hit a crazy home run just being born here at the time you were.

And none of it means anything anyway, so for god's sake don't sweat a legacy.

You. Are. A. Selfish. Moron.

None of this is about us. It’s about trying not to kill others, because we’re not empty, selfish shells.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

My point:
There’s an old joke about a Navy ship trying to force another ship to move but it’s a lighthouse. Google it.

Similarly, if someone from NY had covid, recovered, has a wealth of antibodies, and is generally thought not to be contagious, but we don’t know, he could say “fuck it, open whatever you want. I’m the lighthouse”.

I knew the joke. But thanks for the explain.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

You are entirely an illiterate idiot. The packaging is a low-quality transmitter, as I said, because it’s porous. It’s also unlikely to be sneezed or spit upon, because of normal food safety protocols. Also, people accepting it are likely taking greater than normal protocols, including washing their hands. The packaging argument is the same as the food argument, except for heat. The people working there aren’t trying to get you infected, even if they don’t have PTO.

You falsely asserted that people not getting it via obviously low risk means implies that airborne transmission is the primary route, because you have never had any judgment about anything.

Plastic is porous? Wax paper is porous? Unlikely to be sneezed upon? How would you know that? What kind of assumptions do you demand we believe?

Safety measures will make it near impossible for Covid droplets to be left on plastic packaging? Why? Because in your autistic rational actor scenario no exhausted restaurant worker accidentally sneezes on a plastic container?

Look, I know you’re grasping, and you sound like you’re drinking.

If you wish to stop proving you’re an idiot, and a pissy one, stop typing. These aren’t times for your ankle biting.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

You. Are. A. Selfish. Moron.

None of this is about us. It’s about trying not to kill others, because we’re not empty, selfish shells.

Who are you virtue signaling to now? That was a pre-Covid thing. You’re shtick in that regard is like a restaurant chain stock.