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Old 10-06-2004, 08:53 PM   #11
Tyrone Slothrop
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Join Date: May 2004
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Iowa

Quote:
Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Less, where is Zogby getting his numbers? Because I read this earlier today:

Note that this poll was taken sponsored by a pro-Kerry 527
(1) There are so many state polls floating around that it's very hard to know which ones are worth paying attention to.

(2) According to an article I linked here a few days ago by Guy Molyneux in TAP, the important number to watch is not the spread between Bush and Kerry, but whether Bush is polling at 50% or higher. As a rule, incumbent presidents tend to poll just below or at the last polls, while the challengers pick up an average of 4% from the last poll. So I see the Iowa numbers that you posted here, and am heartened, because Bush is well below 50%. YMMV.
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