Politics: Where we struggle to kneel in the muck.

[LessinSF]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Less, where is Zogby getting his numbers?

This is the Zogby website - http://www.zogby.com . Problem is some of it requires paying him. Here is the FAQ - http://www.zogby.com/about/faq.cfm , containing the following:

I read a lot of polls and yours is so different from the others - what makes your answers so different (and accurate)?

"We poll only likely voters who are different from just all adults. In addition, we poll all day long - 9am to 9pm local time (to the region we're calling). Finally, we apply weighting for party identification to ensure that there is no built-in Democratic bias in our sampling."

I further understand (from a friend involved in the CA Republican party) that his decisions on whether a state will go Kerry v. Bush also considers built-in assumptions about voter turnout (heavier turnout favoring the Dems), as do other polls, but that he is assuming higher turnout than are others (and some of the others).

Here is his further breakdown of the post-debate numbers - http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=874

Here is his methodology - http://www.zogby.com/methodology/index.cfm

He was the only one to get 2000 right - http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

Here's an article about him, including discussion about how he was the only one to get the 1996 election right - http://www.chriscmooney.com/PDF/Zogby.pdf

That said, here is his own article about his fuck-up of the 2002 midterm elections - http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=648

and here's an interesting study comparing 20 polls in the CA 2003 recall election and why they all basically suck - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1004883/posts