Quote:
Tyrone Slothrop
According to an article I linked here a few days ago by Guy Molyneux in TAP, the important number to watch is not the spread between Bush and Kerry, but whether Bush is polling at 50% or higher. As a rule, incumbent presidents tend to poll just below or at the last polls, while the challengers pick up an average of 4% from the last poll. So I see the Iowa numbers that you posted here, and am heartened, because Bush is well below 50%. YMMV.
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If I read that article correctly, its not "vote for" as the 50% barometer - rather, its "approval rating"
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