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Old 06-24-2005, 03:03 PM   #11
Fair and Equitable
I'm getting there!
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 37
classy, classy guy

Quote:
Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Though Club apparently ignores the numbers he doesn't like, I will repeat that according to the study published in The Lancet, it is 95% likely that the number of deaths in Iraq resulting from the war exceeded 98,000. And that's a few months old now, although it's not just murders.
You should learn to read better:
Quote:
But read the passage that cites the calculation more fully:

We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during the post-war period.

Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you, I'll spell it out in plain English—which, disturbingly, the study never does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in plain language—98,000—is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast range.)

This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.
Critique of Lancet Study
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