Objectively intelligent.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

The thing is, there is even a model for screwing up your initial response and then recovering. China screwed up its initial response big time. Then reality hit them and they stepped in very quickly. The initial screw up was bad, but even those bastards were capable of recognizing their mistake and saying, ok, we see, let's not keep making mistakes, let's try to fix it.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I have been turning on the BBC at night for some perspective. The morning news from Australia is particularly high quality; their financial news from HK, Singapore and London also gives great perspective.

The answer here isn't hard. There is a long list of countries that have focused on quarantine, social distancing, cancelling big events, and giving the basic speech that says we are doing the basic things. What freaked the overnight markets was that the US didn't seem capable of doing the basics and trying to figure out what that would do to the economy. The US can't even figure out how to productively deploy stimulus, and instead looks determined to just keep throwing a couple trillion at a time into deep dark holes.

So the report on the BBC News is, England announced today they'll do X, which Germany and Australia announced yesterday, and that if this continues expect Y to also occur. Meanwhile, the US announces it's going to fiddle a bit, play some golf, and maybe light their cigars with dollar bills. Wait, what!

And you know, my brother in law was diagnosed yesterday with the corona virus. It was simple, he felt bad, had already socially isolated, went to his doctor, got the test, was immediately sent in to a quarantine facility at the central hospital in the nearest city, all without a hitch. He's in fucking Vietnam because that story wouldn't happen here, he'd never have gotten a test.

I don't disagree. My observation was that Trump is not up to the task, fiddled while Rome started burning, and is now letting an idiot like Mnuchin be the face of this thing. (No one's paying attention to Pence.)

When you fuck something up and you know now it's too late to fix it, and people are really fucking pissed off, among the myriad things you might do to escape the shitty mess in which you've put yourself is Throw a Hail Mary.

Trump threw a Hail Mary. It was ten yards out of bounds. When I heard about it, I thought it sounded decisive, which is good strategy. When I read about how it was received and delivered, I reached the same conclusion everyone has: Fucking mess of a speech, miserably offered.

I hope your brother in law is doing well and this only visits him in its mildest possible form.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

The thing is, there is even a model for screwing up your initial response and then recovering. China screwed up its initial response big time. Then reality hit them and they stepped in very quickly. The initial screw up was bad, but even those bastards were capable of recognizing their mistake and saying, ok, we see, let's not keep making mistakes, let's try to fix it.

Yup. But this is where an utter moron like Larry Kudlow steps in and says, "But the economy! Animal spirits!"

Your fate, and mine, rest on the decisions of people like Steve Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow.

We are small business owners. I'm resilient to this somewhat. My spouse is not. We are also both going to get this disease due to location and type of work in which we engage.

I am prepared to see a lot of cash go away. I am right now chasing every lingering invoice... and it's scary. We can weather a lot, and my skill set is uniquely perfect for crisis. I love restructuring and workouts. But when nobody has any money... or let me put it this way: I don't accept Rolexes, deeds to spec properties, or seeds.

I hold very little hope I am not going to go through one of the bumpiest years on record.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I hope your brother in law is doing well and this only visits him in its mildest possible form.

He seems to be doing pretty well so far. His wife, my sister, is now figuring out what to do with the half-dozen West African students who were going to come stay with her because her daughters' college is moving to virtual classes and they can't go back to W. Africa. She was with her husband in Australia about a week ago, so she is probably past the incubation period, but it would kind of suck to take them all in and get them sick.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

He seems to be doing pretty well so far.

I talked to a former colleague in SF yesterday who got a strange respiratory bug about a month ago, from a colleague of hers who travels a lot. She was sick for a while, dry cough, mild fever. Then she got better. She's pretty sure now it was Covid-19, but she's never had a reason to go get a test.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I talked to a former colleague in SF yesterday who got a strange respiratory bug about a month ago, from a colleague of hers who travels a lot. She was sick for a while, dry cough, mild fever. Then she got better. She's pretty sure now it was Covid-19, but she's never had a reason to go get a test.

Howard Stern was talking about being at a restaurant and being bugged that the wait staff kept rearranging the silverware- yes it is a nice touch but DON'T TOUCH STUFF.

[Replaced_Texan]

I think it's going to be really hard to put the work from home genie back in the bottle after this is over.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I think it's going to be really hard to put the work from home genie back in the bottle after this is over.

So divorce law will be a growth area?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I think it's going to be really hard to put the work from home genie back in the bottle after this is over.

Yup. I argued with Ty about whether comm r/e had a limited future as a result of connective tech a few months back. My thinking was comm r/e was wasteful and environmentally harmful and had no defense. He asserted that people need to work on certain things in common quarters.

I think we're both right. But this virus is going to prove that comm r/e is only needed for a limited number of business functions, and for a whole lot of others it's just as waste of money.

Eliminating useless office space is environmentally friendly (decreases commuting), eliminates some stress (no more sitting in traffic), taxes the infrastructure less (fewer vehicles wearing down roads and bridges), and could solve some housing affordability problems in cities by flooding the market with new apartments converted from office spaces.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I talked to a former colleague in SF yesterday who got a strange respiratory bug about a month ago, from a colleague of hers who travels a lot. She was sick for a while, dry cough, mild fever. Then she got better. She's pretty sure now it was Covid-19, but she's never had a reason to go get a test.

I was talking with a buddy in NYC yesterday. Jokingly, I said I had this thing at the end of January that last for about a week and almost caused me to see a cardiologist.

Started with feeling tired really quickly while running one afternoon. Then I got feverish at night. Chest was really tight and burning around sternum. Next day I ran again and couldn't catch breath. I was concerned but figured it was just bronchitis or pneumonia. Next three days I simply could not exercise at usual pace. Burning in chest. No mucus. Now I'm thinking I have to see a heart doc. But my resting heart rate was still low. Thought it was acid reflux meds not working. Easy to test that: Take Tums and see if symptoms abate. Tums did nothing. Still having trouble breathing. This went on for seven or so days and then just as quickly as it appeared, it went away. I went skiing at high altitude and felt fine.

My buddy in NYC, at around the exact same time, had the same symptoms. He went to a heart doc for an EKG and it came back fine.

This could have been myriad things. But almost always, with pneumonia or bronchitis, or a chest flu, there's a lot of mucus. I had no mucus with this. No headache either. But I did have watery eyes.

I wonder if a whole lot of us have had this and not known it because it's so subtle and unlike typical flus. And I am often around people who go to China for business a lot.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I was talking with a buddy in NYC yesterday. Jokingly, I said I had this thing at the end of January that last for about a week and almost caused me to see a cardiologist.

Started with feeling tired really quickly while running one afternoon. Then I got feverish at night. Chest was really tight and burning around sternum. Next day I ran again and couldn't catch breath. I was concerned but figured it was just bronchitis or pneumonia. Next three days I simply could not exercise at usual pace. Burning in chest. No mucus. Now I'm thinking I have to see a heart doc. But my resting heart rate was still low. Thought it was acid reflux meds not working. Easy to test that: Take Tums and see if symptoms abate. Tums did nothing. Still having trouble breathing. This went on for seven or so days and then just as quickly as it appeared, it went away. I went skiing at high altitude and felt fine.

My buddy in NYC, at around the exact same time, had the same symptoms. He went to a heart doc for an EKG and it came back fine.

This could have been myriad things. But almost always, with pneumonia or bronchitis, or a chest flu, there's a lot of mucus. I had no mucus with this. No headache either. But I did have watery eyes.

I wonder if a whole lot of us have had this and not known it because it's so subtle and unlike typical flus. And I am often around people who go to China for business a lot.

I caught a bug at the Westminster Dog Show in early February. No fever, but coughing and sore throat. Pretty sure it wasn't Covid-19, but it was certainly a wake up call about how being in close quarters with a lot of people can pass things on real quick.

I learned a similar lesson with the 'flu last year after spending four straight hours in the Orlando airport during Spring Break.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I think it's going to be really hard to put the work from home genie back in the bottle after this is over.

County ordered all schools closed for the next three weeks (and what took them so long?). I am going to be so looking to going back to working in an office.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Yup. I argued with Ty about whether comm r/e had a limited future as a result of connective tech a few months back. My thinking was comm r/e was wasteful and environmentally harmful and had no defense. He asserted that people need to work on certain things in common quarters.

I think we're both right. But this virus is going to prove that comm r/e is only needed for a limited number of business functions, and for a whole lot of others it's just as waste of money.

Eliminating useless office space is environmentally friendly (decreases commuting), eliminates some stress (no more sitting in traffic), taxes the infrastructure less (fewer vehicles wearing down roads and bridges), and could solve some housing affordability problems in cities by flooding the market with new apartments converted from office spaces.

At least in California, it's really hard for that conversion to happen because the cities take a big tax hit so they don't want to rezone. For example, this has taken years.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

County ordered all schools closed for the next three weeks (and what took them so long?). I am going to be so looking to going back to working in an office.

No new civil trials at courts in NY, state and fed.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I was talking with a buddy in NYC yesterday. Jokingly, I said I had this thing at the end of January that last for about a week and almost caused me to see a cardiologist.

Started with feeling tired really quickly while running one afternoon. Then I got feverish at night. Chest was really tight and burning around sternum. Next day I ran again and couldn't catch breath. I was concerned but figured it was just bronchitis or pneumonia. Next three days I simply could not exercise at usual pace. Burning in chest. No mucus. Now I'm thinking I have to see a heart doc. But my resting heart rate was still low. Thought it was acid reflux meds not working. Easy to test that: Take Tums and see if symptoms abate. Tums did nothing. Still having trouble breathing. This went on for seven or so days and then just as quickly as it appeared, it went away. I went skiing at high altitude and felt fine.

My buddy in NYC, at around the exact same time, had the same symptoms. He went to a heart doc for an EKG and it came back fine.

This could have been myriad things. But almost always, with pneumonia or bronchitis, or a chest flu, there's a lot of mucus. I had no mucus with this. No headache either. But I did have watery eyes.

I wonder if a whole lot of us have had this and not known it because it's so subtle and unlike typical flus. And I am often around people who go to China for business a lot.

you thought you had pneumonia and you didn’t go to a doctor?