Objectively intelligent.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

The vast, vast majority of people that I have talked to in NY with the teltale symptoms get cold-like symptoms, lose their senses of smell and taste, then get better with nothing. Occasionally some people use OTC drugs, some don't. Only the one was hospitalized with bilateral pneumonia, and was in for a while. She couldn't complete a sentence on the phone with me without coughing.

Should they get tested? Probably but over the past two months no hospital would waste a test on cold symptoms. If you do plan to go to the ER and want to get tested, hype up the symptoms "I walked up the steps and collapsed" or "I got dizzy and passed out." Generic cold symptoms, they will likely say "Assume you have it, isolate for 14 days, call us if you can't breathe."

The hospital does not want to test people unless they are sick enough to need to be hospitalized. Helping the general public understand the extent of the disease spread is not a bad idea, but it's trumped by the need to protect hospital staff from exposure to potentially sick people and to focus those staff on treating people who need it.

If we had a more competent federal government, it would be finding a way to test lots of people. State and local governments too, but they don't have the resources.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Furloughed, laid off, what’s the difference if you intend to bring them back? Most firms I know used furloughed because it conveys that you intend to have them back ASAP.

We promised to do so and are still paying for health insurance. Most other small to midsize sized outfits I know are doing same. Maybe that’s a violation. Don’t care. Rules are immaterial now.

As an aside, I called the accountant last week regarding our personals. I was looking for some guidance on a deduction. He told me “Who the fuck knows if you’ll even be paying them this year?” That’s reassuring.

We are cutting our burn because we don't know how long this will last. Bringing people back ASAP would be great, but it's going to be months and months.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Good to know. Makes total sense. Squeaky wheel. Thanks.

(Don’t tell Adder. He thinks we shouldn’t exchange such information.)

I think you’re both selfish idiots if you think it’s a good idea to exaggerate your symptoms to get a test.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Your last sentence is quite amusing. You and Adder are seeking maximum control. I’m saying I’ll take an educated guess if it’s all I’ve got. I’m quite aware I’ll have limited control, but what limited control I do have I will exercise with the best evidence I have at the time.

Added, OTOH, can go on a ventilator to avoid that 2% risk of cardiac arrest.

And what I keep telling you is that it isn’t educated. It’s just a guess.

You still do not understand what evidence means in science.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

I think you’re both selfish idiots if you think it’s a good idea to exaggerate your symptoms to get a test.

I would stay the fuck away from an ER or anywhere else there are people sick with the virus unless I absolutely needed medical help. If you have to talk up your symptoms and you don't know that you have it, why would you take the risk? And if you know that you have it, what do you need the test for? The last place I want to go right now is an ER -- the thought scares the shit out of me.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Adder

And what I keep telling you is that it isn’t educated. It’s just a guess.

You still do not understand what evidence means in science.

Adder, Icky's friend was sick, very much so. Icky's friend was given some weird medicine cocktail and got better. Sebby "knows" doctors are giving that same cocktail out and getting results. Icky and sebby might both be wrong as it is not first hand information, but it is "evidence in science."

Science goes like this- see something- friend sick-cocktail makes friend better-

Postulate a theory- cocktail cures sick-

Test theory- this is the hard part- like Ty says most people just get better anyway- and placebo effect and 80 other variables- and there will be no PROOF anytime soon.

But it is evidence (assuming not confused/contrived data points).

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I would stay the fuck away from an ER or anywhere else there are people sick with the virus unless I absolutely needed medical help. If you have to talk up your symptoms and you don't know that you have it, why would you take the risk? And if you know that you have it, what do you need the test for? The last place I want to go right now is an ER -- the thought scares the shit out of me.

my sis is a nurse in a major hospital chain's outpatient surgery remote center- mostly elective surgeries. A week ago she was ordered into the Detroit main branch- I was last there with my mom 5 years ago. It was scary as fuck then. Sis was fixing to be very very scared. She was assigned to NICU, for now, and breathing (ha!) easier.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

We are cutting our burn because we don't know how long this will last. Bringing people back ASAP would be great, but it's going to be months and months.

Idk about where you are, but this isn’t going on for months and months here. People are already taking about Mid May.

Months and months = Feral society, collapse. Preferable to dance with chance of Covid than live in that shit existence.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Idk about where you are, but this isn’t going on for months and months here. People are already taking about Mid May.

Months and months = Feral society, collapse. Preferable to dance with chance of Covid than live in that shit existence.

People may be talking about mid-May, but people are also talking about malaria cocktails that cure the disease. There is a lot of wishful thinking out there. We talk to our major corporate partners and our VCs, and planning for months and months is much more prudent if we want to have a company at the end of the year. Other companies will have better and worse odds of riding this out. Our sector is probably more impacted than most. I think it's great that you are putting people on furlough so they don't lose their health insurance. I wish we felt we could do that.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The hospital does not want to test people unless they are sick enough to need to be hospitalized. Helping the general public understand the extent of the disease spread is not a bad idea, but it's trumped by the need to protect hospital staff from exposure to potentially sick people and to focus those staff on treating people who need it.

Quite true, and the right approach. And, it wouldn't matter as the treatment would be the same. "Stay at home, isolate for 14 days, call us if you can't breathe."

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

People may be talking about mid-May, but people are also talking about malaria cocktails that cure the disease. There is a lot of wishful thinking out there. We talk to our major corporate partners and our VCs, and planning for months and months is much more prudent if we want to have a company at the end of the year. Other companies will have better and worse odds of riding this out. Our sector is probably more impacted than most. I think it's great that you are putting people on furlough so they don't lose their health insurance. I wish we felt we could do that.

Oh, I don’t disagree with you. I think it’s prudent to assume the worst case scenario. I am merely noting, there is no government intervention which can keep us a functioning society if this thing should go more than two, three months at the most. I think you should build that in as an additional “super worst case scenario.“

We are currently making decisions in part based on consideration of a possible “doomsday situation.” I may not buy a gun, because I have never wanted one in my house, but I may buy a safe.

I know one fairly affluent person who recently avail himself of the right not to pay his mortgage for the next three months. I asked why, given that he can easily afford it. His view was, you can never have too much actual cash on hand, and if things go really badly, why the hell would you want to have wasted that money on your mortgage?

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Oh, I don’t disagree with you. I think it’s prudent to assume the worst case scenario. I am merely noting, there is no government intervention which can keep us a functioning society if this thing should go more than two, three months at the most. I think you should build that in as an additional “super worst case scenario.“

We are currently making decisions in part based on consideration of a possible “doomsday situation.” I may not buy a gun, because I have never wanted one in my house, but I may buy a safe.

I know one fairly affluent person who recently avail himself of the right not to pay his mortgage for the next three months. I asked why, given that he can easily afford it. His view was, you can never have too much actual cash on hand, and if things go really badly, why the hell would you want to have wasted that money on your mortgage?

I thought about this. I wondered if you do this do they shut down all your other credit lines. Then all the other banks follow suit.

I actually also contemplated the converse for a second. What about paying off the house and squatting for a bit only worrying about small tax bill and food.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

my sis is a nurse in a major hospital chain's outpatient surgery remote center- mostly elective surgeries. A week ago she was ordered into the Detroit main branch- I was last there with my mom 5 years ago. It was scary as fuck then. Sis was fixing to be very very scared. She was assigned to NICU, for now, and breathing (ha!) easier.

I hope she stays in NICU. They need good nurses.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

I thought about this. I wondered if you do this do they shut down all your other credit lines. Then all the other banks follow suit.

I actually also contemplated the converse for a second. What about paying off the house and squatting for a bit only worrying about small tax bill and food.

The business lines aren’t tied to the home. Different lenders. Always kept them separate for this kind of reason. Also, no personal guarantees of mine for business. And we’re tenancy by entireties state, so we’ve leverage of being judgment proof. No collection ability. And I drew down business lines in early March, when I heard P/E was doing it.

We paid the home mortgage this month too. I don’t want a balloon coming out of this. The SBA PPP line (why not take one... it’s 0% interest forgivable) requires it be used for employees and rent.

I got 6 months of runway, and then shit gets dicey. But as I said, three more months of this and you and I will be kicking ourselves for paying anything on homes that won’t be worth much without gun turrets on the roof. This goes bad a lot faster than anyone thinks. Fed can’t fix this one. No money cannon can do it. It has to be fixed with a coherent plan for incremental re-opening of the economy. This befuddled administration cannot do that. And lunatics saying we need to stay on lockdown until August help nothing.

This can be a V shaped recovery, but there has to be someone in charge, speaking with serious authority. This Fauci/Trump vaudeville routine is going nowhere. Not Fauci’s fault. But you also can’t give the floor over entirely to medical people because, respectfully, half of this is business, and they’re not trained to trade away lives for dollars the we all know we are going to in order to avoid a depression.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Our lines aren’t tied to the home. Different lenders. Always kept them separate for this kind of reason. Also, no personal guarantees of mine for business. And we’re tenancy by entireties state, so we’ve leverage of being judgment proof. No collection ability. And I drew down business lines in early March, when I heard P/E was doing it.

We paid the home mortgage this month too. I don’t want a balloon coming out of this. The SBA PPP line (why not take one... it’s 0% interest forgivable) requires it be used for employees and rent.

I got 6 months of runway, and then shit gets dicey. But as I said, three more months of this and you and I will be kicking ourselves for paying anything on homes that won’t be worth much without gun turrets on the roof. This goes bad a lot faster than anyone thinks. Fed can’t fix this one. No money cannon can do it.

Different lender is one thing but lenders HAVE to be pulling credit reports now. If Bank A sees you asking for a bailout from Bank B I wonder if they reduce that credit line to zero.

I haven't tapped any credit lines yet but I haven't rushed to pay bills early.

The way I look at it is if we turn into The Walking Dead and the money in your account isn't useful, actual cash would be less useful. You never see Carol paying for stuff with fives, do you but last season in, Carol was living in a cute little shack she found.

The only thing is if Elizabeth honey, I have the big one, and the house is paid for, my wife and kid really don't have to worry about anything $ wise for a while. As nice as it sounds to pack up the cash and walk over the border to Canada (I know the hidden spots) there's too much equity in this house to just walk away unless we turn into Venezuela.

And if shit does turn around, I am predicting a fire sale on Manhattan real estate and a mad rush to the burbs so I can be like this guy and ask for $20 million.