Objectively intelligent.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

There's a lot more wishful pontificating there than there is actual data. I couldn't read the whole story as it's subscriber-only, but in the section you've cited Marshall hangs his hat on the answer to one question. Then he extrapolates from there - quite liberally - to guess what pitches will and will not work in Wisconsin.

Here's a counter, offered with more data:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...st-11598901254

I can tell you because I interact with Rust Belt Democrats and Republicans all the time, moderates on both sides do not like the riots, or the "defund the police" stuff. Marshall can present a cherry picked poll answer and then fictionalize about how the riots are impacting voters in a manner that fits what he wants that impact to be, but he's talking out of his ass.

Biden's leading, but the riots are hurting him. Marshall is correct that Trump has not capitalized on the riots yet as he might, but I have three observations in response to that which are so obvious it makes me wonder how Marshall gets paid to write what he wrote there:

1. It's all about timing. If Trump crushes the riots right now, he's too close to the election. The value of his doing so is potentially forgotten or diminished by November 3.

2. Trump's bet on young progressives is that in the states that count, They Don't Vote. BUT, if he has a Kent State on his hands because he fucks up the response to the riots, young progressives might actually vote. Why take that risk now, when they could register in time to vote? Take that risk closer to election day, when they won't be able to do so as easily.

3. The riots are helping Trump. He's out there, telecasting to fence-sitting voters that if re-elected, These Riots Will End. You don't squash the riots when the riots are helping you until the moment that squashing them can provide a bigger boost than not squashing them. You ride that wave of fear. And you say this on TV all the time: "When re-elected, when I have nothing to fear from a lying media which will portray law and order in a bad light, we are going to end these riots. For good."

Is Trump that smart? Maybe. Maybe not.

You read the entire "story," which is a blog post. I cut and pasted the whole text. He's talking about a bunch of poll results that came out yesterday, which together show the race where it was before the RNC and Kenosha. There are a lot of people who suggested that the reaction to Kenosha would hurt Biden. So far, I'm not seeing it, your link notwithstanding.

There is plenty of time for things to change between now and Election Day, but the fundamental problem with Trump's pitch is, he's the incumbent. All of the riots (and the pandemic, for that matter) are happening on his watch.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You read the entire "story," which is a blog post. I cut and pasted the whole text. He's talking about a bunch of poll results that came out yesterday, which together show the race where it was before the RNC and Kenosha. There are a lot of people who suggested that the reaction to Kenosha would hurt Biden. So far, I'm not seeing it, your link notwithstanding.

There is plenty of time for things to change between now and Election Day, but the fundamental problem with Trump's pitch is, he's the incumbent. All of the riots (and the pandemic, for that matter) are happening on his watch.

I've read that the lack of candor and the lack of response to polls by people who support conservative and populist positions builds a 5-6% margin of error into the polls. If that's accurate, I think we see a 3-5 point spread between Biden and Trump. That's within or nearly within the general margin of error.

I'd like to see what the response would be to a Rust Belt poll asking this question:

"Do you want to see this looting and rioting stopped and those involved in crimes as part of it prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law?"

You'd get a huge affirmative response from Ds and Rs.

YMMV, but I do not see the story that Trump is causing or failing to respond to these riots gaining any momentum. The story that's gelling right now is that the Democrats' left wing is enabling this stuff.

And a big part of the reason is because people are exhausted with the President being blamed for everything. People may be dumb generally, but they realize that Trump did not cause George Floyd's murder, and the argument he created the environment for it is a facile attempt to link the two. They don't blame Trump for riots in Portland or CHAZ in Seattle because those are clearly caused by crazy people who just like to burn things.

People do blame him for Covid deaths, but most of those people are already voting Democrat. YMMV, but most moderates here look at the Covid deaths as a "meh." Shit happens, but the President can't fix everything.

People may blame Trump for not tamping down the riots more effectively, but those people are right wingers. They want law 'n order. They aren't voting for Biden.

If the economy continues to get better and the school openings don't turn into total shitshows (they are to an extent, but the media isn't following it much for some reason), this is a nail biter.

A surgeon friend just laughed to me today, "I can't wait for November 4, when Covid expires." That sentiment abounds. Another one is, "We can't have these nuts you see in Portland running around everywhere."

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The fracking folks are frightened of Harris, not any planeloads of people.

Seriously, any group of outside protestors/looters/agitators won't do well in rural PA. Recall what Carville said about PA being a northern Alabama? It's also crooked as all fuck. They'd disappear a handful of members of any Portland-like riot group, beat the rest to concussions, and no one would investigate anything. The blue dogs and right wingers would put aside differences and unite in that behavior. And I say this as someone who has had a shotgun pulled on him in rural parts for merely driving on someone's alleged land. The hillbillies in rural PA will. kill. you. And then they might re-enact the scene from Deliverance on your corpse. They aren't friendly sorts like you'll find in West Virginia. They are mean fuckers - generations of angry inbred coal crackers mixed with some East Coast nihilism they picked up from being close to coastal sorts (think a hardass New Yorker or South Philly person crossed with a nothing-to-lose redneck). And while PA is a hotbed of KKK (yup), that's a small fringe element. The hardasses who'd go medeival on any riot aren't racists. They Don't Like Anyone. (And that frequently that includes their own siblings and neighbors.) Pure misanthropes of the most vicious stripe.

So no... The people in PA you think are worried about planeloads of any kind of person aren't the same ones who worry about Harris fiddling with the fracking industry. The people worried about that are people with jobs in fracking, or businesses dependent on fracking multiplier effects.

The people you think are worried about planeloads of people coming into town actually aren't afraid of anything. They'd love a riot. Good excuse to kill someone.

The frack job on my parents ranch started on 1/8/2020 (great timing everyone...). In the last year we've gotten to know a ton of people in the industry personally. On top of every other friend we have in Houston working (if they're still working) in O&G. The people everyone were worried about were Sanders and Warren. Biden was a long sigh of relief, and Harris was welcome too.

You PA oil people are weird.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Look, just because some stoned kid and his buddies get lost and meander into your field of dirt does not give you the right to pull a 12 gauge.

Maybe a pistol, maybe even brandish a knife, or your granddaddy's Civil War sword... But pulling out the shotgun and aiming it from the hip? Come on. It isn't like I drove over your field of marijuana. (Then I probably would get shot.)

It probably didn't help to be driving a Japanese SUV and have deadheads with me. We had "dirty hippies" written all over us.

Dude, America is arguing over whether self-defense includes driving off to a neighboring state, stopping by a friends to arm up, heading into a crowd, being an asshole, and firing at random people because you think one of them may have called you an asshole. Then firing at more people who try to stop you because they're interfering with your right to shoot them.

Like I said, those were my friendly relatives. You were lucky you didn't wander over into Bud's farm.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

The frack job on my parents ranch started on 1/8/2020 (great timing everyone...). In the last year we've gotten to know a ton of people in the industry personally. On top of every other friend we have in Houston working (if they're still working) in O&G. The people everyone were worried about were Sanders and Warren. Biden was a long sigh of relief, and Harris was welcome too.

You PA oil people are weird.

We have some South Dakota kin folks (through marriage) who struck it big fracking. But they don't live in South Dakota any more.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

We have some South Dakota kin folks (through marriage) who struck it big fracking. But they don't live in South Dakota any more.

I'm pretty sure my parents will keep the ranch.... And college funding has become less of an issue for any and all grandchildren. Though if this had happened a year ago, it would have been ridiculous.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I'm pretty sure my parents will keep the ranch.... And college funding has become less of an issue for any and all grandchildren. Though if this had happened a year ago, it would have been ridiculous.

Did Texas finally lock down/mask up, or is the drop just because the peak is over?

www.covidactnow.org

A few weeks ago the whole South was red. Much better now.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Libertarian Sen. Rand Paul wants to subpoena antifa travel records.

Sen. Rand Paul calls for arresting citizens first, investigating afterward: "The FBI needs to investigate but the only way you can do it is you have to arrest people."

link

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

The frack job on my parents ranch started on 1/8/2020 (great timing everyone...). In the last year we've gotten to know a ton of people in the industry personally. On top of every other friend we have in Houston working (if they're still working) in O&G. The people everyone were worried about were Sanders and Warren. Biden was a long sigh of relief, and Harris was welcome too.

You PA oil people are weird.

They were most scared of Bernie and Warren. Biden was a sigh of relief, but everyone figured his VP would be Rice, whose position seemed more nebulous and transactional. Harris was, fairly or not, portrayed as anti-fracking.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

link

His conversations with his father must be interesting. Say what you will of dad, he was a serious libertarian/Goldwater Republican. Rand seems oddly accepting of authoritarianism when it's applied to those he doesn't like.

Rand. Can we all agree this name needs to go? It's worse than Bodie, or Carter. Those dipshits only wind up in a Vineyard Vines catalog. Rand starts an incel group on 4Chan.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Dude, America is arguing over whether self-defense includes driving off to a neighboring state, stopping by a friends to arm up, heading into a crowd, being an asshole, and firing at random people because you think one of them may have called you an asshole. Then firing at more people who try to stop you because they're interfering with your right to shoot them.

Like I said, those were my friendly relatives. You were lucky you didn't wander over into Bud's farm.

If you're 17 and your primary aim isn't a combination of getting laid, loaded, and excelling at whatever sport or academic endeavor you like, you're a weird fucker.

That kid scares the piss out of me on principle. Having seen the video of him - an older Spanky from Our Gang with an AR-15 - I'm hardly surprised. Somebody needed to introduce that twisted fuck to PornHub, Busch 16 ouncers, and whip-its. Exhibit 937394 on why prostitution should be legal.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Did Texas finally lock down/mask up, or is the drop just because the peak is over?

www.covidactnow.org

A few weeks ago the whole South was red. Much better now.

Closed the bars and allowed for masks to be mandatory based on case level per county. We're definitely better than we were, though I've noticed a slight uptick in the last three days or so, and the R(t) in Houston has been above 1 for four days now. I'm paying more attention to Houston than the state as a whole.

We'll see if school is going to screw things up. The governor is supposed to make an announcement next week about reopening again. I suspect it'll get worse again three weeks after that due to numbers spiking. Not exactly a great strategy, IMHO, for Republicans, but I'm not gonna tell them.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

I go to the mailbox. It's filled with fliers and requests for donations. I throw them all away. Don't read a single one... and the fucking things fill my trash can.

The phone rings go only knows how many times a day, causing the fax machine to go off in the basement office over and over again with this incessant beeping.

I get calls all day on the cell from strange numbers or "Unknown."

I know why voters lie to pollsters. I know why they lie to their friends, relatives, and co-workers about this stuff. It's exhausting. And it's a situation that's utterly unwinnable. Trump is far better for the small business people in this part of the world than Biden. That's not up for debate. But Trump is a fucking disaster in every other regard. So does one vote the macro or the micro? Does one place the "Republic," or whatever tattered rags of it are left above the local economy?

I'm yelled at by Trumpers - "You're a turncoat and fool for not having voted for him last time... RINO." Never mind I'm not a registered Republican.

I'm yelled at by Biden-folk - "This is the an election for the existential soul of the United States!" Bullshit. Get over yourselves. Trump's an ass, but the moon isn't colliding into Earth here. (And most of these people I know simply want more trade, because Trump's tariffs have cost them money.)

November 4 can't come fast enough. The hysteria on both sides is maddening. And fuck the media. This is their doing.

[Pretty Little Flower]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I go to the mailbox. It's filled with fliers and requests for donations. I throw them all away. Don't read a single one... and the fucking things fill my trash can.

The phone rings go only knows how many times a day, causing the fax machine to go off in the basement office over and over again with this incessant beeping.

I get calls all day on the cell from strange numbers or "Unknown."

I know why voters lie to pollsters. I know why they lie to their friends, relatives, and co-workers about this stuff. It's exhausting. And it's a situation that's utterly unwinnable. Trump is far better for the small business people in this part of the world than Biden. That's not up for debate. But Trump is a fucking disaster in every other regard. So does one vote the macro or the micro? Does one place the "Republic," or whatever tattered rags of it are left above the local economy?

I'm yelled at by Trumpers - "You're a turncoat and fool for not having voted for him last time... RINO." Never mind I'm not a registered Republican.

I'm yelled at by Biden-folk - "This is the an election for the existential soul of the United States!" Bullshit. Get over yourselves. Trump's an ass, but the moon isn't colliding into Earth here. (And most of these people I know simply want more trade, because Trump's tariffs have cost them money.)

November 4 can't come fast enough. The hysteria on both sides is maddening. And fuck the media. This is their doing.

Everything you say is completely wrong, all of the time. That’s not up for debate.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I've read that the lack of candor and the lack of response to polls by people who support conservative and populist positions builds a 5-6% margin of error into the polls. If that's accurate, I think we see a 3-5 point spread between Biden and Trump. That's within or nearly within the general margin of error.

2016 I feared "the lack of candor", or Bradley effect, would be big. But polls just before the election were spot on, so it didn't.