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Old 04-18-2022, 09:52 AM   #1
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Re: Song of the Day

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post

Well, the Chinese, geniuses that they are, did that. And how’s the working out for them?
Omicron didn't originate in China and may never have developed had the original not been allowed to run rampant around the world.

There are very real practical questions whether we could have locked down hard enough to kill the thing off - which led the experts to conclude we shouldn't try - but that does change the fact that we never tried.

But places like China and elsewhere in SE Asia that tried saw it go away until they were reinfected by others that didn't. (Of course, this is not an endorsement of everything China has done).
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Old 04-18-2022, 11:29 AM   #2
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Re: Song of the Day

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Omicron didn't originate in China and may never have developed had the original not been allowed to run rampant around the world.

There are very real practical questions whether we could have locked down hard enough to kill the thing off - which led the experts to conclude we shouldn't try - but that does change the fact that we never tried.

But places like China and elsewhere in SE Asia that tried saw it go away until they were reinfected by others that didn't. (Of course, this is not an endorsement of everything China has done).
Even with MRNA vaccines, the virus still spreads. They don't prevent acquisition, but they decrease time with it and rick of death from it.

There was no reality, ever, in which any nation (other than an island that intended to shut itself off from the rest of the world forever) could have locked down, waited for a vaccine, and then reopened and avoided spread of the virus. The endeavor is so flawed I find it amazing to be even having this discussion.

The only viruses we've managed to contain in the fashion you are advocating were MERS and Ebola. Why? Because they are very difficult to transmit from person to person. The virus most like Covid, SARS, spread significantly but had a limited lifespan in part because it was also far more difficult to transit than Covid.
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Old 04-18-2022, 11:35 AM   #3
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Re: Song of the Day

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
Even with MRNA vaccines, the virus still spreads. They don't prevent acquisition, but they decrease time with it and rick of death from it.

There was no reality, ever, in which any nation (other than an island that intended to shut itself off from the rest of the world forever) could have locked down, waited for a vaccine, and then reopened and avoided spread of the virus. The endeavor is so flawed I find it amazing to be even having this discussion.

The only viruses we've managed to contain in the fashion you are advocating were MERS and Ebola. Why? Because they are very difficult to transmit from person to person. The virus most like Covid, SARS, spread significantly but had a limited lifespan in part because it was also far more difficult to transit than Covid.
I am curious as to whether a one whole-earth three weekend lockdown would have ended it.
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Old 04-18-2022, 03:59 PM   #4
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Re: Song of the Day

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I am curious as to whether a one whole-earth three weekend lockdown would have ended it.
Probably but since no one did it … here we are.
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Old 04-18-2022, 02:17 PM   #5
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Re: Song of the Day

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
There was no reality, ever, in which any nation (other than an island that intended to shut itself off from the rest of the world forever) could have locked down, waited for a vaccine, and then reopened and avoided spread of the virus. The endeavor is so flawed I find it amazing to be even having this discussion.
A country that shuts down and gets vaccinated saves a lot of lives, which is the real point. Yes, no one can indefinitely avoid the spread of the virus. But that doesn't mean so many people need to die. People are dying right now in China because so many old people didn't want to get vaccinated. They did a great job of buying time, but didn't use that time as well as they might have.

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The only viruses we've managed to contain in the fashion you are advocating were MERS and Ebola. Why? Because they are very difficult to transmit from person to person. The virus most like Covid, SARS, spread significantly but had a limited lifespan in part because it was also far more difficult to transit than Covid.
Are you kidding? Ebola is *not* hard to transmit. But it is much more lethal and generally scares the shit out of people, so they take it quite seriously. All of the conservatives who have discovered principled reasons that the government shouldn't have public-health powers to combat COVID felt exactly the opposite when Obama was the President and Ebola was a thing. They did not give a single shit about individual civil rights -- they wanted everyone who might spread Ebola to be locked up.
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Old 04-18-2022, 02:11 PM   #6
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Re: Song of the Day

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But places like China and elsewhere in SE Asia that tried saw it go away until they were reinfected by others that didn't. (Of course, this is not an endorsement of everything China has done).
What does that prove? Since we do not live in a world where every government could do what China did even if it wanted to, wasn't that inevitable?
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Old 04-18-2022, 03:03 PM   #7
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Re: Song of the Day

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
What does that prove? Since we do not live in a world where every government could do what China did even if it wanted to, wasn't that inevitable?
I mean, no? There was no way of knowing for sure how the thing would mutate or whether vaccines or other treatments or practices would be developed to stop the spread.
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Old 04-18-2022, 03:45 PM   #8
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Re: Song of the Day

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I mean, no? There was no way of knowing for sure how the thing would mutate or whether vaccines or other treatments or practices would be developed to stop the spread.
(1) Without the benefit of hindsight, do those things make it any *more* likely that China's lockdowns were going to be able to work indefinitely? No.

(2) With the benefit of what we know now, re-infection from other countries was inevitable, and pretending to forget what we've learned doesn't change that.
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