Poll: Who's going to win?

Tyrone Slothrop · 10-29-2004, 05:54 PM

Who's going to win the Presidential election?

If you like, make a prediction on the number of electors -- but please, let's not argue about this stuff here. Take it to the main thread.

SlaveNoMore · 10-29-2004, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Tyrone Slothrop
Who's going to win the Presidential election?

If you like, make a prediction on the number of electors -- but please, let's not argue about this stuff here. Take it to the main thread.

Isn't a better question "When"?

I'm guessing December 20th.

LessinSF · 10-29-2004, 06:50 PM

He takes practically every close state.

Tyrone Slothrop · 10-29-2004, 06:54 PM

Actually think he might go somewhat north of that (i.e., taking Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada, West Virgina, and maybe Virginia).

eta: I meant to come in two electors short: one for the Kerry elector in Ohio who's a congressperson, and one for the Bush elector in West Virginia who says he's not voting for Bush.

sgtclub · 10-30-2004, 02:36 AM

and December 7

edited: 10/30

Say_hello_for_me · 10-30-2004, 04:19 PM

y senor Dinosaur y monsieur Club, a quick google search confirms that the totals in Less' tally would add up, while yours would not. Specifically, 538 I think.

Hello

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-31-2004, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by LessinSF
He takes practically every close state.

Out of Florida/Ohio/Iowa Kerry gets 27 (either Ohio/Iowa or Florida). Wisconsin and Minnesota go Democratic, Wisconsin by a margin similar to last time. Final resolution of disputes Nov. 21st.

If it weren't for polling contrary to the standard wisdom in Ohio right now (that is, undecideds breaking the President's way), I'd be with Les.

The popular vote will be closer than the electoral vote, with Bush possibly slightly ahead due to his pulling his base heavily in red states.

Hank Chinaski · 10-31-2004, 01:42 PM

Bush 301. Done the morning of the 3rd.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy · 10-31-2004, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Actually think he might go somewhat north of that (i.e., taking Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada, West Virgina, and maybe Virginia).

eta: I meant to come in two electors short: one for the Kerry elector in Ohio who's a congressperson, and one for the Bush elector in West Virginia who says he's not voting for Bush.

Ohio situation resolved - Cong. is being replaced as an elector.

baltassoc · 10-31-2004, 02:37 PM

I have neither the time nor the inclination to come up with a plausible electoral count, but I think Kerry will take it, will do so by enough vote to render the mess in Florida moot, and the election will be over whenever the final absentee ballots are counted in Oregon.

robustpuppy · 11-01-2004, 11:31 AM

On the one hand, the Redskins lost on Sunday. Lore has it that a Redskins loss/victory the Sunday before election day corresponds to a loss/victory for the incumbent President. The loss was not without controversy, however. This doesn't bode well for a smooth electoral process, regardless of outcome.

On the other hand, this is the year that the Red Sox came back from a 3-game deficit to defeat the Yankees in the ALCS and went on to win the freaking World Series, so I tend to think this is not the year to count on the sports-related predictor.

Bad_Rich_Chic · 11-01-2004, 11:54 AM

I suspect Bush will edge it out, but not by much. I think most swing voters would love to vote against Bush, but, when it comes down to it, will consider switching horses in mid stream too risky, particularly given that Kerry has only recently become clear about where he stand on a lot of the foreign policy issues, and "clear" is an arguable description. Or: I think it will be a one issue race, and Bush will "win" that issue based largely on a "devil you know" rationalle. I would not be surprised to be cataclysmically wrong.

Personally, my only wish is that it be decisive in each state, but I depressingly fear it is not to be. And I really fear that, even if it is fairly decisive, that won't stop our fellow lawyers from trying to fuck it up. I want it over Nov 3, but predict it will be over about Dec. 15th. The Supreme Court will refuse to hear any cases.

Gattigap · 11-01-2004, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bad_Rich_Chic
I suspect Bush will edge it out, but not by much. I think most swing voters would love to vote against Bush, but, when it comes down to it, will consider switching horses in mid stream too risky, particularly given that Kerry has only recently become clear about where he stand on a lot of the foreign policy issues, and "clear" is an arguable description. Or: I think it will be a one issue race, and Bush will "win" that issue based largely on a "devil you know" rationalle. I would not be surprised to be cataclysmically wrong.

Personally, my only wish is that it be decisive in each state, but I depressingly fear it is not to be. And I really fear that, even if it is fairly decisive, that won't stop our fellow lawyers from trying to fuck it up. I want it over Nov 3, but predict it will be over about Dec. 15th. The Supreme Court will refuse to hear any cases.

2 to the hopes and to the probable outcome. Bush by a whisker. Depressingly large number of legal challenges, all cast aside by a Supreme Court that doesn't want to hear this shit again. Election is determined by a slate of electors chosen by the Republican dominated state legislatures of Ohio and Florida, which (in the eyes of many) will be even more controversial than 2000.

Bad_Rich_Chic · 11-01-2004, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gattigap
Election is determined by a slate of electors chosen by the Republican dominated state legislatures of Ohio and Florida, which (in the eyes of many) will be even more controversial than 2000.

But, as Slate (I think) commented, at least accountable to the voters affected.

Gattigap · 11-01-2004, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bad_Rich_Chic
But, as Slate (I think) commented, at least accountable to the voters affected.

Certainly true.

Almost none of those currently in office were placed there by voters who possessed the conscious expectation that this bad hair, bad suit politician moving up from City Council may end up playing a more direct role in selecting POTUS, though. Most were elected for more pedestrian purposes, like getting that highway built, or getting God into our classrooms.

Having the spotlight shined on state legislatures, if nothing else, would be a good source of comedy. Molly Ivins' career covering the foibles of TX legislature is only one amusing example.